| Author |
Message |
Willwillbee
Member
09-19-2001
| Monday, September 16, 2013 - 2:34 pm 
LG, from what I've heard, Ed's brother is really determined. I really think Ed's twin may actually be trying to be the biggest game player. I think they had a plan going in.
I really wish he had gone instead of Matt, just to end the JadEd nonsense but whatever.
Ed made a comment that if he is evicted that he
would "drop the biggest bomb on this house ever".
Ed telling Tully that Drew is playing her seemed contrived to me. He said Drew said "something" to Tim & Tim told Ed. Which made me wonder if he just wanted to drive a wedge between Tim & Drew. His last comment to Tully that this does not benefit us really had me baffled but at least they had subtitles.
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Kitt
Member
09-05-2000
| Monday, September 16, 2013 - 3:42 pm
I think Matt was just sore that Drew put him up (when he saved Jade) and used any reason he could to pick on him.
Ed's biggest bomb... one thing, possibly the only thing, I don't like about BBAus is that the evictee gets to say their bit after they've left and they can basically be as nasty or as manipulative as they like and it can't be checked. What can Ed say? He'd just look bad making up stuff about Drew, and everyone seems to know/guess Tim's game.
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Spunky
Member
10-07-2001
| Monday, September 16, 2013 - 4:19 pm
Well what a night!! I liked this fake double eviction, as predicted Ben was the fake eviction but it really shook up the house.
Thank God the sisters are getting closer to being evicted! Now if they could just be nominated again soon they'll go.
Drew and Tully is the best showmance they have and they'll keep it going. Ed and Jade, oh well, I just wish Jade would stop going from Ed to Drew and it was so funny to see that Drew went to Tully's bed and Jade was left stunned.
I can't wait to see what power Ben has and what Ed will make of his super power.
I'd like to know what is the recent episode because they are all over youtube and never know which is the most recent one.
So, is the next one Episode 47?? I'll look for this one and hopefully soon. They're a day ahead of us so we could be seeing it tomorrow morning.
Now that US bb is done, well after Wednesday and the worst BB season ever, I'm glad to have this fun Aussie version to watch.
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Rehtse
Member
08-17-2005
| Monday, September 16, 2013 - 5:03 pm
Life is so much more peaceful in Australia.
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Kitt
Member
09-05-2000
| Monday, September 16, 2013 - 5:27 pm
Some places are calling today's episode Episode 43 and others (those that call the Confidential a separate episode) are calling it Episode 46. There are probably a few other numbers out there too. But Monday is double eviction day so if you're watching the double eviction it's the most recent show. The shows are on very early morning our time, but they are within our same calendar day (i.e. their Monday evening show airs on our Monday early morning).
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Willwillbee
Member
09-19-2001
| Monday, September 16, 2013 - 6:47 pm
Kitt, I love analyses & sure do appreciate your trying! Without at least one piece, I can't imagine working it out.
We don't even know if the line up changed. It could have changed from 123456 to 124356 or I'm guessing 134256. If my theory about Ed's twin is correct, he may have sent in another big vote push at the end - he would want to protect his "investment" in this vote - especially seeing that they all were relatively close. It wasn't like the other evictions with one person getting 30-40% of the vote.
I would think though that the Matt voting would be a better place to start. His percentage didn't move much, so I'm figuring he got the least amount of the votes & .001 of a million votes would be 1000 (& if that is correct then Ben would have got appx 8000 votes in the hour)
But you're right the second position look like it had almost no activity but I think that the second place was Ed at the beginning of the show & he was pushed to the 4th or 5th place position. I would think that would account for what looks like negative activity in second place.
The harder I try to figure it out the more confused I get.
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Kellee
Member
07-07-2004
| Monday, September 16, 2013 - 7:19 pm
Ed's twin is a gigantic idiot both slagged off BB viewers, announce if his brother wins he gets $50,000 and set up an scam to get people to vote for Ed by doing a date for a draw. If Ed's wishywashy ways dont get him evicted his brother sure will.
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Kitt
Member
09-05-2000
| Monday, September 16, 2013 - 8:03 pm
Willwillbe, what do you mean by the 123456 numbers? Are the actual vote counts published anywhere, I've been looking off and on all day but couldn't find anything!
Yes, if the order changed my analysis is screwed ;) ;). Don't make me think about that!! 
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Willwillbee
Member
09-19-2001
| Monday, September 16, 2013 - 9:39 pm
According to Ed's family, Ed agreed to the date raffle *before* he went into the house - some wonder if his single status is imperative to running this "win a date with Ed" This is not a date but a raffle entry for a date.
http://leesalittle.com/2013/09/15/big-brother-australias-cheating-controversy/
I don't find Ed appealing & can't imagine there would be that many willing to spend $50 on a raffle ticket, but I've been known to be wrong lol.
Kitt, re 123456 I assumed that Matt was #1 to be evicted (& Ben was #6). I don't think that changed from the beginning of the show til the final numbers but I'm saying that we can't assume that the final listing of HM corresponded to the first list that had *no* names. We might assume that but *if* there was a HUGE influx of votes on one person, their standing would change. I think Ed went from the #2 position to the #4 spot, knocking the sis to the #2 spot. The difference between 14 & 12.6 is 1.4% & *if* we "guess" a million votes, that's 14,000 votes needed to make that kind of change. Even *if* the sisters didn't get any votes, they didn't lose any votes.
No clue about voting numbers but there are a million viewers according to the ratings. I figure some don't vote at all & some vote a lot.
I just believe with the sports betting changes on Ed (& Matthew) someone placed some big bets. Ed was #1 to be evicted but he had smaller odds (21 vs 26 for Matthew) to make it to the safe house - the only way that would happen is due to large bets placed. My theory goes that the bro effected the vote so Ed was safe & he placed a large bet on Matt. Matt's odds went from 4 to 2.2 If he makes enough on the bets, he can afford to spend it on buying votes.
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Kitt
Member
09-05-2000
| Monday, September 16, 2013 - 10:27 pm
Wow that's pretty bad! Who would want a possible date with Ed for $50 though... ;) I wonder how many extra votes they got. One thing with BBAus is a good reception doesn't mean people have bothered to vote for you. Matt got huge cheers but had fewer votes than even the Sisters, Ed might not even be popular enough to vote for him even with the date (lottery) offered.
123456 was the order of the people, I get you now. Yes, it's definitely possible. There's no point Ed making big bets if he doesn't do something to increase his chance of not being evicted (by actually voting). He might do it as early as possible though, before the show, as it might be hard to get in as many as he might need during the show???
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Willwillbee
Member
09-19-2001
| Monday, September 16, 2013 - 11:04 pm
Facebook voting allows purchases of 20 vote Bundles & I assume you can purchase more than 1 bundle at a time if not, you're right, it would take a team of people.
If the show wasn't so late at night, I would have tracked to see when the odds changed so drastically but I did check before bed (3 hours before the show aired) & the end results.
I'm sure he did most of the voting before the show but with all of them so close together, I'm betting he made one more push trying to get him in the safe house.
That eviction is the only one with the safe house option (with the 1:21 odds). So I don't expect another huge push for Ed like this to happen again probably just enough to keep him in.
Of course, this is all my theory & may have nothing to do with fact lol
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Spunky
Member
10-07-2001
| Tuesday, September 17, 2013 - 7:45 am
Thank you so much Willwillbee for your help in providing so much info on the game!
I just finished watching the nomination episode and things are surely getting hectic with only 4 people up for eviction. I can't stand the sisters and they're up there and so I hope they go and whoever wins the showdown won't save them.
Once Tahan goes or Tully goes there won't be much left to this game I'm afraid. Who wants to watch those sisters and Jade and Mikkayla ganging up on Tim or Drew. Those remaining girls will put a damper on my enjoyment, that's for sure.
I was hoping to see Ben re-enter and the look on their face.. I guess I'll have to wait for that.
Usually one of the guys wins the showdown and if it's Drew again I think he'll save Jade again.... well as long as the sisters remain up there and hopefully he'll put Mikkayla there.
I want Tahan to stay a little longer, also Tim, these two are the ones that make it enjoyable for me to continue watching.
I just loved Ben's reaction to his tasks and I think he was the right choice for it.
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Lake_gal
Member
06-09-2004
| Tuesday, September 17, 2013 - 8:42 am
If Drew wins showdown he will save Tully not Jade. I think Jade and Tahan probably have enough votes to stay. I really think it is between the Sugar Sisters and Tully for the boot. I want Tully gone so badly that I would rather the Sugar Sisters get saved from the showdown. This week only 3 people stay on the block for eviction. The showdown winner just saves someone. They don't put another up.
Ed is becoming a big jerk to me. Both him and his family are getting on my nerves. I hope he doesn't make it anywhere near the end.
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Hober
Member
06-26-2004
| Tuesday, September 17, 2013 - 8:43 am
One of the new changes is the winner of showdown can save a nominated person, but they no longer can pick a replacement. The three remaining nominations will then face the public for eviction.
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Cricket
Member
08-05-2002
| Tuesday, September 17, 2013 - 10:40 am
Just when I start liking Ed again, he pulls another bonehead move. I do feel he got cheated in his special power in that Ben almost got more info (thus power) than Ed, but Ed wasted his last three questions pretty much and even Ben could see that.
I was so excited when he brought Drew's name up. All he had to do was give all six points to Drew and both Drew and Tully would be up for eviction. That way, Drew would have to save himself (I hope) and Tully just might go home at last.
Nope....that isn't what Ben did. If giving three peeps two points each is him play the game hard and having cards up his sleeves, he may as well keep the stupid cards in his sleeves. He's horrible at this game and he nommed Jade? Why?
I do think BB should have told him there would now be only four nominees. As I said, his power wasn't that great this week.
The silly girls need to go after other peeps and worry about each other at the Final Five. As it is, they are doing the others' dirty work by constantly nominating each other.
With the whole house saying how tired they are of Drew/Tully, I thought it would be a no-brainer and everyone would nom them. What is wrong with them?
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Willwillbee
Member
09-19-2001
| Tuesday, September 17, 2013 - 11:11 am
I watch most all the "live feed" clips, so I'm wondering if I'm confused but wasn't the "Late Night Feast" show 90% a rerun of material already aired??? The Tahan/Mik fight, the Tully/Ed discussion, the Tully/Drew meltdown, even Ben stuck in the pool. The only new footage seemed to be about if they would make a sex tape.
Hopefully the sisters will go, I can't imagine anyone (other than themselves) saving them. I've given up hoping Tully will go, I think people are voting to keep her to torment us. I wouldn't be too sad to see any of them go this week really.
I think they are voting in who they would have a chance against *if* they themselves are up for nom. Hope they snap soon that Ed should be nom (since Caleb & Matt were evicted over the girls)
I really don't like this 3 choice option. It's too easy for the HM to nom strategically & we get stuck with Ed at the end.
I was so glad Ed's noms ended up useless. I don't think he scored any points with the public by voting Jade, hasn't he been enough of a scumbag toying with her already & why bother voting for Tahan when she's up every week with lots of points anyway & 2 points to Drew was useless - even if there were 6 noms I doubt if a 2 pointer would have been included. What a waste.
Nominees - one to be saved (no replacement)
14 Tahan
11 Tully
07 Jade
07 Sis
Safe -
03 Tim
02 Drew
02 Mikkayla
00 Ed
-- Ben (safe)
Another intruder tease from the executive producer -
@AlexMavroidakis I guess there aren't any new housemates/intruders this year! #BBAU
@oshawotter Guess again.
5:01 AM - 16 Sep 13 (posting date)
https://twitter.com/AlexMavroidakis
The HM's were given 2 mugs this week with the guy & girl photo on them, guessing that has something to do with intruders.
They're just viewers photos. If you go to the bb Facebook you'll see something saying 'mugshots' if you submit your pic, they might pick it to go in the house.
http://forum.behindbigbrother.com/showthread.php?49230-When-will-the-intruders-arrive/page10
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Kitt
Member
09-05-2000
| Tuesday, September 17, 2013 - 11:22 am
So Ed's big reveal was just about Tim... I think everyone but the Sisters is already clued into him at least as well as Ed is. I'm also glad he didn't have much power (and glad they didn't tell him there would only be four nominees, else he probably would have given Drew all six points). Shame he isn't up.
I worry about Jade this week. I think people who want Tully out will vote for the Sisters, thinking they will be the most likely to go otherwise. That might mean Tully and the Sisters votes go above Jade and she's out. I think Tahan will be safe.
Hopefully Jade will be saved at the showdown.
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Cricket
Member
08-05-2002
| Tuesday, September 17, 2013 - 12:07 pm
Who would save her, Kitt? Ed?? Drew would save Tully. If Drew wins again and saves Tully, I will scream.
I could see Mikkala saving Jade, but doubt she'll win the showdown.
You could be right about Jade being in danger....yikes! I agree with you that Ed did himself no favors with the public by nomming Jade.
Willwillbee, yes, the Tues. night dinner (or whatever it's called) is a repeat of many things. I think the dinner was actually on Friday night. They showed more of it prior to Tues. than they usually do, but I guess they wanted to show the Tahan/Mikkala fight and the Drew/Tully situation.
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Kitt
Member
09-05-2000
| Tuesday, September 17, 2013 - 12:45 pm
I think she's got a good chance with everyone (not on the block) apart from Drew.
Drew - save Tully
Ed - save Jade (looks bad if he doesn't)
Mikkayla - save Jade or Sisters
Ben - save Jade or Sisters
Tim - save Jade would seem the sensible thing but you never know with Tim
Jade - save Jade
Tully - save Tully
Tahan - save Tahan
Sisters - save Sisters
not that it works on probabilities, but I give her a roughly 50:50 chance of being saved.
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Kitt
Member
09-05-2000
| Tuesday, September 17, 2013 - 3:17 pm
Willwillbe, I did the maths (too much time on my hands this week!) for the 134256 scenario, again assuming 500,000 votes total and that the Sisters got about 2,000 votes during the show, and got the following:
| % at Start | % at End | Name | Begin Votes | Votes During Show | Final Votes | | 11.6 | 11.7 | Matt | 46,500 | 12,000 | 58,500 | | 15.3 | 12.6 | Sisters | 61,000 | 2,000 | 63,000 | | 16.8 | 16.1 | Mikkayla | 67,500 | 13,000 | 80,500 | | 14.0 | 16.6 | Ed | 56,000 | 27,000 | 83,000 | | 20.9 | 20.8 | Tahan | 83,000 | 21,000 | 104,000 | | 21.4 | 22.2 | Ben | 85,000 | 26,000 | 111,000 | | | TOTALS | 399,000 | 101,000 | 500,000 |
In whatever scenario I tried with Ed jumping from 2nd from bottom at the start of the show to third at the end, Ed would have to have received approximately the same number of votes during the show as Ben, and I don't see that happening. Also in all the scenarios a huge portion of the final votes would have to have been cast during the show (about 20%) to make up that number of votes, and I'm not sure if that could be the case either.
I think it might be more or less impossible for someone to jump that far up the leader board during the show given the percentage spread they had this week. I think if he influenced the votes in some way then most of the damage was done before the show.
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Willwillbee
Member
09-19-2001
| Tuesday, September 17, 2013 - 3:18 pm
I think Ed would save Tahan over Jade. If he was worried about looking bad, he wouldn't have nominated her.
I think Mikkayla & Ben would choose the Sis over Jade, it makes better sense strategically & I think they are closer as well.
Tim has a thing for Jade & might like the sisters out but one sis is his cuddlemance.
There were quite a few clips on the "live feeds" about Tim wanting to pursue Jade.
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Spunky
Member
10-07-2001
| Tuesday, September 17, 2013 - 4:26 pm
If last night were the nominations when did they have time to air the late night feast, of course it happened last Friday but they air all those interactions, good and bad, so that Australians can vote who to save.
I think they may be spontaneous but I also think they are often playing for the audience, there would be much more squabbling and bad words thrown at each other like they do in the US version if they knew the public didn't vote. So, I don't know how much you get to know the real person in there. Tahan is way too spontaneous and she may be like that in real life, also Mikkayla she is the real deal, but Jade, nah, the sisters, nah, Ed, nah, Ben is the real deal. Tully is all for the game and Drew could be quite spontaneous as well, his bad words weren't bleeped out when he was talking to Tully.
Tim is playing all the way to the audience but he does it well.
There are now too many women, but if the sisters go it would look more even.
By now Ben is back in the house and can't wait to see their reactions. I think in the long run his coming back will rub the others the wrong way since they were already starting to get used to the idea of Ben out of the house and less competition. It really should be explained to them that Ben got the highest votes to stay.
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Kitt
Member
09-05-2000
| Tuesday, September 17, 2013 - 5:20 pm
It's weird they air the Friday night feast AFTER the weekend and after someone in the feast has already left! I guess that's what comes of having no weekend shows. They are warned that it's something special, and it sounds like they are warned it will air so I bet some of them do act up.... until they get too drunk, which seems to happen a lot.
I think they will tell the others Ben had the top number of votes. Which reminds me, Tim seemed sincere when he said he thought he would lose to Ben and that he wouldn't actually mind losing to Ben. He'll be both happy to know he wasn't wrong in his thoughts about the voting and sad that his main opponent is back.
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Willwillbee
Member
09-19-2001
| Tuesday, September 17, 2013 - 7:19 pm
I don't think it would be fair to any of them to know Ben got the most votes. Even Ben shouldn't be given that kind of info. To tell them that he was voted into the safe house would be different though.
But maybe being voted into the safe house is suppose to be a blessing & a curse. If they know he was #1 safe, then they might try harder to agitate him, rile him, something along those lines & that may be a good or bad thing.
My main fear is that he will start playing to the cameras, instead of being himself. Some people wonder if he's doing that already. I would think an air flight attendant would be more confident.
Someone on another forum *claims* to have worked with him & claims he was fired for giving away free drinks (soda & juice). Apparently tea & coffee were free but the others weren't. I can almost see Ben being to timid or forward to request payment & just gave it to them.
I would think with only a half hour show on Fri & no show on Sat & Sun & Monday show being about eviction & Tuesday show being about noms, they would have a stock pile of footage by Tuesday but they give us retread. I'm not too thrilled about the whole show being about the party, but if there is enough content, that's fine but it's not fair to air all the content already.
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Lake_gal
Member
06-09-2004
| Wednesday, September 18, 2013 - 9:10 am
I saw a photo of Drew with his ex-girlfriend. She looks similar to Tully. He must have a type. The ex-girlfriend's aunt said that Drew broke up with her niece because she was going to be travelling overseas for 3 months. This might be why Drew talks about wanting her back. They are on a break while she is overseas and he is in the BB house.
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