Archive through October 22, 2003
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Ep 6 Title -- What could it mean?:
Archive through October 22, 2003
Hermione69 | Monday, October 20, 2003 - 09:00 am     I haven't seen Sandra's clip where she says "that is crazy." It could be so many things, from a reaction to tree mail or a challenge, or to someone's plan for who to vote off at TC. It could even be misdirection. What if, as in my scenario in the earlier post, she is being recruited to vote off Rupert and that is what she says in confessional, but later votes him out. Classic misdirection. Can someone tell me where she made the comment? Was it said in a confessional or casually around camp? How was she dressed (meaning could she be wearing the same clothes she wore to a challenge)? I just think of all the "interesting" sound bytes that end up being trivial because they were clipped out of context just to reel us in. |
Alaginger | Monday, October 20, 2003 - 01:34 pm     Hey Hermie, Been trying to get my new hard-drive up and running. Just had to reload Real Player. The clip where Sandra says, "Oh Man, this is crazy" can be seen at the CBS.com website. It's the preview for Episode 6 and it is the last thing on the clip where Sandra is sitting there in a confessional, wearing her orangy shirt and shaking her head from left to right. It's not said in a whisper or loud, just normal vocalizing. |
Webkitty | Monday, October 20, 2003 - 04:29 pm     I have Sandra with this comment on tape (commercial) She says it like something serious is going down. It could be anything, but its almost like she is "stunned" by something she heard or discussed. I can't see her thinking it would be crazy to comtemplate voting off Jon or Shawn. Christa and Trish maybe, Rupert, yes. Especially if he has been tagged a traitor by someone. His loyalty to Drake has been emphasized and someone saying he has been double dealing would be stunning. Unless you believe the rumor that the F3 person is a male with a beard, and you think its Rupert, he has to go soon. He would be an II threat the likes of Colby. I really think its going to be Rupert or Shawn this week. I don't think MB will give us mis-direction when its Rupert's time. MB has never given anyone the star treatment like Rupert. Why not send him out with fanfair? Shawn would be the logical choice. He is the last of the Burton alliance. Maybe Rupert is the one who betrays Shawn. Or, maybe Drake is just wants Shawn out now, before the merge, I don't know, I'll check back when I have it figured out, lol. |
Surreal_Badger | Monday, October 20, 2003 - 05:12 pm     i'm trying with every ounce of analytic power to come up with reasons why drake won't boot rupert. (i mean, i know he has to go sometime. and i know that "sometime" is soon. i'm just not ready yet.) so with that in mind, here are a few more thoughts: * based on my interpretation of the promo (the handshake/betrayal scene), it looks like shawn is coming to rupert -- for advice, for help, for whatever. this indicates to me that shawn knows he's in trouble. as webkitty notes, he's the only remaining person of the michelle-burton-shawn-we're-too-cool-to-share-our-coconut-crowd. i can't imagine rupert going to shawn for advice, help, etc. shawn has no power in the tribe, whereas burton and michelle both went to rupert to plead their cases. * both michelle and burton were quite bitter about rupert in their boot interviews. (can't remember exact verbage). why would they be so resentful if rupert was the next to join them in loser lodge? i do think the promos the past 2 weeks are alluding to rupert's exit -- Trish's comment about rupert's possible betrayal; her comment again this week about him having a lot of power. (they're trying to break it to us gently, folks) i'm just not sure i see it happening this week. but as i said already, i'm grasping at anything to keep rupert in the game. |
Lurknomore | Monday, October 20, 2003 - 08:59 pm     Hiyya...came to check out the Survivor board and as usual can't help but add my . My first thought when I saw the commercials were OMG Rupert's gone. But then I realized that Mark Burnett NEVER shows things as they really are. So I think there will probably be some talk of booting him, and we all will fret through the episode, but someone else will ultimately go. And did any of you read about their being a 3rd tribe of the booted Survivors? I stumbled across that the other day, but as is the case with most of these rumors I'm not sure I'm biting. But with Survivor you never know...they do take more game/rule changing chances there than on other shows. |
Hermione69 | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 06:41 am     "* both michelle and burton were quite bitter about rupert in their boot interviews. (can't remember exact verbage). why would they be so resentful if rupert was the next to join them in loser lodge? Whoa! That is a very good point! I'll have to think about that. LL bonding (or not) is often revealed by such comments. Maybe he IS the next to go, but then he makes it back in the game and he is the F3 man! I know spoilers do not much support that, but we can dream. I know that right now Osten is believed to be the F3 man (from Snewser, TDT, I think), but this is what puzzles me... I have to wonder why, if it is Osten in F3, he would only be described as bearded and not A/A. I hope it is not un-PC of me to say that, but for descriptive purposes, why would it be noticed that he is bearded, yet not that he is a minority? He and Tijuana are the only A/As in the group, they should stand our for that reason, just as Sandra stands out for her own coloring and Lillian and Trish stand out as older. It has given me a lot of pause as to whether to believe the spoilers that Osten is really the F3 man. So let's assume just for a moment who the bearded man could be if not Osten. For a man to be described as bearded and nothing else, wouldn't that beard be a rather distinctive feature of the man? In which case, Rupert is really the only one to fit that criteria. The other two whose beards are most noticeable right now are Burton (could he come back?) and Ryan. Andrew is next. Jon and Shawn's beards just do not leap to the eye yet, IMHO. Of course who knows what they will all look like by the end, but I thought I would give Rupert fans something to chew on. Thoughts? Ryan O.... The spoilers of him not making it far are iffy. Snewser and TDT don't really know how much credibility to give the source. And remember there is also spoiler that he doesn't like the Drake women. Maybe the F2 ARE Trish and Darrah, as some spoilers indicate, and Trish is the one that won that last challenge and picked Darrah to come with her over Ryan and that is where the comment came from that he doesn't like the Drake women. I know that's a stretch for now, but not implausible when you consider how many comments get twisted. Next to Rupert, of the remaining men, Ryan's beard is most noticeable, I think. I'm officially rambling now. Thanks, Alaginger and Webkitty for providing more information to me on Sandra's comment. I'm leaning towards it being a reaction to an uprising to get Rupert voted out. It just fits. |
Kaili | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 07:01 am     By that point- any of the men could be bearded. Even Jon. In Ruperts case, if you are considering how they would be described- I think Rupert's size is pretty descriptive as well. Weight loss and all, he's a big man. I can see Andrew becoming bearded later on down the road. Still, I don't think this is Rupert's week to go. I'm thinking he makes the merge but is the first voted off (pre-jury). Or Rupert just barely makes the jury and the Morgan members are used to help get rid of Shawn pre-jury/post-merge. This would explain the bitterness and it would also explain a little bit how Morgan's numbers seem to overtake the Drake numbers after the merge (more people from each former tribe). Also, if Rupert were to vote against a Drake after the merge, taht could cause anger from the Drakes enough to take him out (he would have betrayed them already at that point, probably hooked up with Andrew). Then again, I have no clue and I'm just coming up with scenarios. |
Hermione69 | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 07:03 am     I just went to Survivor Phoenix to check out the men's beards and the only man that doesn't have a beard is OSTEN. Jon's is blonde and so not very noticeable, but all the others have noticeable growth. So here we are folks, is the F3 man Osten, or a bearded guy? If Osten hasn't grown much hair now, will he grow enough to be labeled bearded by the end? I doubt it. We are coming up on the halfway point in the filming schedule. Episode 6 takes clips from Days 16-18. Day 38 is when the F3 player is booted. Osten's beard better start growing. Speaking of that, does anyone know where the beard spoiler came from in the first place? Was it the Panama Vacation spoiler? I know this is not specific to Episode 6, but puzzling over what the later spoilers mean can help with this episode by process of elimination. |
Awareinva | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 07:07 am     I'm pretty sure that Drake wins Reward this week. I saw some pictures of SIX nice looking steaks cooking in a wok-like thing over at SSucks. There are six members on Drake and only five on Morgan. That with all the other clues lead me to a pretty sure bet for Drake to win RC. |
Hermione69 | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 07:08 am     For those of you who are holding onto the hope that Rupert will not be next, TDT thinks he is safe. They don't think the act of betrayal would be played up so much if it really got Rupert booted. Classic misdirection. They are also not sure that Ryan's happy dance is happy. They said it could be a hulk-like tirade. And they picked up on the same thing I noticed... if he is celebrating a win, where are his teammates? They all usually come together for group hugs at such moments. Once again we have another week where anything goes, LOL! |
Hermione69 | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 07:12 am     Oh, good find, Aware! I think they win RC too. IC is what has me stumped. |
Azriel | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 07:24 am     I don't think it makes a difference how many steaks there are. Don't they usually have that all layed out with a cover over it and then Jeffie pulls it off and says, 'TaDa! this is what you are playing for.'? So, if they had made it up ahead of time they would have put six steaks IN CASE Drake won, but no big deal if there is a left over one to share if Morgan wins. |
Awareinva | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 07:27 am     Based on pictures, I'm going with Morgan win IC so far. Osten, Andrew and RyanO all seem pretty strong... even tho Osten has been a real wimp so far!! He has a good stance in the pics I saw and probably knows he's on the line if they don't win. (I am of the opinion that Osten is the BigLiar and his poor performance to date has been an act!JMHO) I did get a good laugh out of the fact that the three picked to hold the weight in the IC on the poles from Drake were: Rupert (no brainer), Shawn (again, no brainer) and CHRISTA!! ( Poor Jon... such a wuss!!!) Probably a good choice, as Christa seems strong, but can you imagine the ribbing Jonny boy will take when he gets home??? LOL He so deserves to go!! Hope this week or next they will see through the bull! |
Azriel | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 07:33 am     I don't think we know for certain who the third person is holding the weight on Drake. You can see Rupert and Christa in the pics, but you can't see the third person unless there are new pics out. |
Hermione69 | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 07:40 am     Well, it is not Trish because she can be seen at Christa's side with Jon. So it is either Sandra or Shawn. Seems logical to conclude it is Shawn, but you are right, I can't find definitive proof, at least not at Survivor Phoenix's vidcaps. |
Hermione69 | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 08:13 am     Boy, do I need a life today, or what?!! I have been mulling Trish over as a possible boot this episode. Let me explain. I think by that Occam's Razor theory, that Morgan does win IC. So for the sake of argument, let's assume that and look at the Drake tribe for a moment. TDT has a good point about the betrayal of (or by) Rupert being played up so much that it is probably misdirection and he is safe. Same with Jon and Shawn. They have the fight and so that is probably also misdirection and they are safe. However there is a spoiler that has Jon and Shawn being the last two before the jury starts. Maybe Rupert is the betrayer and Shawn goes. I think Shawn is more likely to go than Jon. I also think Christa could be in danger as Snewser downgraded her longevity. He usually doesn't do that unless he is sure, but he has been wrong before. I think Jon and Shawn would want to keep her over Rupert. Could they get someone else on their side? Finally, there is a lot of mixed evidence about whether it is Trish or Lillian who is the older woman in the F2 (who comes back into the game). If it is Trish, and she is the one who comes back into the game to be the F2, she would have to go this week in order to be in a position to return, but no one else seems to be discussing that possibility so I feel like it is a stupid thought on my part, LOL! But maybe it is her and she is being downplayed by MB right now for that very reason-- she does come back. Every season we have one boot that no one saw coming. That could be Trish tomorrow night. They seemed to be playing Lillian up a little too much and I felt she dropped too many hints that she would be coming back. Maybe that is misdirection also... someone is coming back, but not her. And if it is an older woman that comes back, it would have to be Trish. And for it to be Trish, she would have to go tomorrow night. What do y'all think about that? Please feel free to poke holes in this theory. The only one who seems pretty safe to me is Sandra. With TDT's good argument about the massive play-up of Rupert's vulnerability being misdirection, I'm now leaning towards it being Shawn, Christa, or even Trish. One last though, this one on the spoiler that has Jon and Shawn being the last two to go pre-jury. Maybe Shawn and Jon are not the last two to be flown out before the jury but the first two to be flown out for the jury? I know, I know... I am just muddying the waters more and more. I should make my own boot sheet and clear all this thinking up! |
Lurknomore | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 08:33 am     Ok as for Osten being in the F3, either he is doing a great job of faking out his real life co-workers, or that's not true. Forgot I have some real world info on him. A guy I know works with him (I had totally forgotten he was from MA). He said that they have been given him hell for being the wimp he has been, and he gathers he didn't make it too far along. (Also that he's a pretty kewl guy in real life, better than he is coming across on the show). That's all I know...didn't want to grill the dude lol. PS Surreal did you see my post of yesterday? Gave you a huge straw to grasp at. Name one time that things went the way Burnett has made them appear on Survivor? That NEVER happens...EVER!!!!!!!! |
Hermione69 | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 08:49 am     I can see Osten being totally cool in "real life." I have liked him much better the last few episodes, but didn't care for that "I want to quit" mentality he displayed earlier. I know some people thought it was strategy, but notice how that "strategy" has fallen by the wayside now that Morgan is finally winning? Interesting that your friend didn't get the impression Osten makes it far. A lot of rumors say he does make it far. I wonder if he is leading people on or if the rumors of him making it very close to the end are wrong. So Lurk, who do YOU think will be going? |
Puttergirl | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 12:52 pm     Maybe the older woman coming back is Jan? Just in time to help Rupert bury the snake. |
Kealoha | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 12:58 pm     LOL Puttergirl! |
Surreal_Badger | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 04:54 pm     well, i'll confess. last week, i totally over-analyzed things, relied way too much on snewser's scorecard, and predicted christa was leaving when, really, michelle was the obvious one to go. i think that last week i totally ignored the bond between christa-sandra-trish. i think that for now at least these 3 are tight. rupert is sorta part of their alliance, but he's sorta a loner too. so i don't see trish leaving. and i don't see christa leaving. and i refuse to see rupert leaving. and although i REALLY want jon to get eaten by sharks (being booted would be nice too), i'm gonna say it's shawn's week to leave. (shawn going would certainly have angered the too-cool-for-their-own-good-burton-and-michelle crowd, hence their negative comments about rupert in their interviews.) |
Webkitty | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 05:09 pm     Good one Puttergirl!! lol. That is great info Lurk! I was having a hard time seeing how Osten made it far. Maybe he doesn't My logic is telling me if Drake loses the IC this week (and I think they do) that Shawn should be the one going. But, then TDT is telling us that they thought Rupert would be gone by ep6. sigh. And then there was that little ditty Snewser had about Rupert's tribe not being afraid to vote him out (which he has removed btw) This is a tough one. |
Seamonkey | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 05:13 pm     Lurk... go back and GRILL THE DUDE!!! ROFL Hermi.. good to see you revving up your spoiling engines.. I'm dying here because I stupidly scheduled physical therapy for Thursday afternoon and it might just mess with my timing (getting last minute spoilers but still being back home for east coast spoiling) |
Azriel | Tuesday, October 21, 2003 - 06:24 pm     Lol, Seamonkey. I know what you mean about the last minute spoilers. My boyfriend thought I had a screw loose last week. I made him wake me up at 6:30 am our time which is 6:30 pm EST. I had to be awake to get the last minute spoilers!!! He told me I need therapy for that!  |
Hermione69 | Wednesday, October 22, 2003 - 06:46 am     Michelle really was the obvious boot last week... the ONLY one who didn't vote for Burton. I think most of us (and that includes other boards) overanalysed it when it was really quite simple, and led ourselves into picking Christa initially. If we keep it simple this time, I agree it will come down to Shawn or Rupert. Or Christa. Crap, I don't know, LOL! Here comes my overanalysis.... Shawn- For boot- spoiler about being one of the last two to be flown out of Contadora before the game (however he was picked as one of the two from a photo lineup. no name was ever given). Possible victim of betrayal. Alliance with Jon and maybe Christa, two people who are probably not the most trustworthy alliance mates. Against boot- alliance with Jon and maybe Christa could be stronger than appears. Could convince others that Rupert is bigger threat with merge coming. Misdirection by being featured in both the fight with Jon and the betrayal scenario with Rupert. Rupert- For boot- Could be seen as both huge physical threat and huge "likability" threat as merge is looming. Snewser- Chirp! A bird told him his teammates were not afraid to vote him out. Despite seemingly obvious misdirection, MB could be sending him out with fanfare since he is so well-liked. Against boot- Michelle still seems antagonistic towards him... means no chance to mend fences at LL? Misdirection by being part of the betrayal situation. Alliance with Sandra and Trish? (Alliances on Drake are still unclear to me). If alliance with Sandra and Trish, they are possibly more loyal alliance mates that those Shawn has. Christa- For boot- Shaky alliance? I don't feel she has a very strong one. I feel she was saved over Burton simply more to get rid of Burton than to save her. Downgraded by Snewser earlier in the season. In pictures not long after filming ended, she looks very healthy for someone who spent a long time in Survivor conditions. Tabloid pictures already published a la Stephanie from S5 who was booted not long after appearing in the tabloids. Against boot- possible (but iffy) spoiler that she is still around for the family reward. May have stronger alliance than looks and may be aligned with the other women as well. Trish- For boot- If she is older woman who returns, needs to leave now to be in position to return. Against boot- very little air time, not perceived as a threat. Note- has longevity spoilers but those could be used to support both! She is voted off, but is the one to come back, or she is not voted off and stays around on her own merit. |
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