Archive through April 08, 2003
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TV ClubHouse: Archive: Really Great Spoiler Thread: Archives: Archive through April 08, 2003

Webkitty

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 07:20 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Your right Ginger, lets just consentrate on who gets the RC, who get the IC, and who gets the boot.

I'll go first. I think Deena gets the boot this week.
I think the general viewing audience would be most shocked if Deena goes.
Alex has been in the background, so his boot wouldn't be a big "shock". Rob has been shown scheming, and I think the GVA might be expecting a big fall for him. Deena would be the big shocker.
MB can edit anyway he likes. If Deena goes this week, the editing has been set for this.
Matt going next would be no shock at all, imo.

My point is, how does Deena go? What are the events that lead up to it? Who wins the RC and the IC has to tie in there somehow unless she does or says something to get the whole camp against her, which I don't believe happens from the commercial. It says the battlelines are drawn right down the middle.

Grooch

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 09:35 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I'll go second.

I think Christy gets the boot this week.

I think that Heidi opened her big mouth at tribal council and spilled the beans that the girls are letting the guys all destroy each other.

This worries Rob and he wants insurance from Deena that this won't happen and he will want to boot a girl this week to keep the numbers between boys/girls the same.

Deena squawks at this and refuses. Matt wins the IC, so she will want Alex gone, because she will say that he is the biggest threat at winning immunity.

This will lead to everyone voting along gender lines. Rob will get the guys to vote for Christy, because he is hoping to repair his alliance with Jenna and Deena after the vote (but to no avail.) So he can't vote for them, and Jenna will never vote for Heidi.

So it comes to a tie and it may not be the same exact purple rock thingie. I would be shocked to see Christy go, not Deena. Because Deena is the biggest threat out there, so you would thnk everyone would want her gone.

Fruitbat

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 09:55 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Webkitty, if Christy is gaging Matt could very well have jumped up and out of her way. I don't think his chair being empty would necessarily mean he is out of the running. You see that on Fear Factor all the time. The table empties when someone starts to heave!

Fruitbat

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 10:08 am EditMoveDeleteIP
This could all be less complicated than we are making it. A gender split would be understandable and an easy divide.

Robs double alliance plans come to light forcing that and creating a tie. Matt would be the one to talk to Alex about this and he in turn could tell Deena. Anger ensues and they all retreat to their first bonds.

That would be Rob driving his car off the road, he loses the tie.

Clp

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 10:45 am EditMoveDeleteIP
RC- Matt, takes a girl
IC - Matt

Plan was to vote out Matt. Deena and Rob disagree over alternate. Everyone retreats back to gender alliances.

Rob, Matt, Alex, Butch - vote Deena
Jenna, Heidi, Deena, Christy - vote Alex

IT'S A TIE! I haven't the foggiest who goes, but it wouldn't surprise me if Christy changed her vote to Deena or if someone gets purple rocked.
To me, this is the first boot this season where I can see more than one person going and I think it will be a total surprise.

Car54

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 10:57 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Bat, I like the theory that the guys DID hear and understand what Heidi said at tribal council and no matter what alliances have been made since the switch, the girls plan to be the last "men" standing.

If they are smart (and they never are) they provoke a tie...they have a 50-50 chance of getting the purple rock...or if a woman does, gaining a majority.

The best Alex or Rob or Matt could do is F4,5,6 or 7,depending on Christy's real standing with the core girl's club.

The guys better darn well wise up and club together. I think they might..but then Rob gets the rock. Awww.

Christy is the swing vote...she could go either way...if I was a guy, I would deputise Butch to woo her. Her relationship with Deena is really unclear...she has historically not been tight with the girls, resented direction from Deena, but in the recent episodes, they have teamed up and shared jokes.. very hard to tell.

Webkitty

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 12:03 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Grooch, I agree that Heidi's comments at TC will spark some sort of paranoia, and voting along gender lines sounds good to me right now, I'm wiped out from all this.

The wording of the commercial clearly made it sound like there would be a split down gender lines. This makes think that it was presented that way to throw the viewers off, so, since I am suspecting that it won't go down that way, it probably will,lol.

I'm done for this week. All I'm going to say is that I think Deena goes and Heidi is the catalyst for it.

I also think that Deena is the one who drives her car off the road because she can't change who she is. She likes who she is, she is comfortable with herself and her decisions. She is a confident person in general, but in this case, I think she gets overconfident. I also think because of her profession, she is used to speaking out, and not being afraid to do so. She would need this quality and I bet she is tops at what she does, but I think this one time, she will put her foot in her mouth without realizing it.

Rob has shown too many times that he is willing to adapt a plan as the situation warrants. He is also good at on the spot editing at TC. He is just too flexable to be the one who can't change.
He blabs to the camera, but notice around the others he is rather quite as far as giving opinions goes. He is the jokester who keeps his eyes and ears open. It just SEEMS like he is a likely candidate to be the one who puts his foot in his mouth because he never shuts up to the CAMERA.

Alaginger

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 12:11 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I think the split down the middle is strictly referring to the fact that there are 4 of each gender left. I don't think it is any more than that ...... and they are just hoping we will drive ourselves crazy trying to figure out what it means.

I'm still thinking, so no final vote from me ready yet, but here's how I'm thinking:
Boot: Not Matt, Jenna, Christy, or Butch (F4)
Not Heidi --- Episode 11
Not Rob --- not skinny enough yet.
So either Deena or Alex (leaning to Deena)
RC: Butch (Hunter) or Matt (Experience) ---
(leaning to Butch)
IC: Matt (he probably thinks he needs it, because
he is a target and will do what it takes).
Who leaves insects first --- Christy or Rob
Tie-Breaker --- Probably isn't one, but if so,
aubergine rock.

Alaginger

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 12:17 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Subject: Tie-Breaker
You know, I always thought it was unfair that Paschal had to leave TC after getting the "rock" when he wasn't one of the two that the tie was about.
Prior to that, the tie was broken by a Q&A session between the two that were tied.

So, I've been thinking....if there is a tie this week, maybe MB has been hounded by fans that thought that the Paschal thing wasn't fair, and so the next tie they make the Survivors that are tied break the tie. Say this week there is a tie between Deena and Alex..... then they could put them both in a vat of vipers, and the first one to crawl out loses. That's far-fetched, I know, but you get my point!

Webkitty

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 12:50 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Vat of vipers you say?

I loved the purple rock and I want it back! lol

<chant> ~purple rock ~purple rock~ ~purple rock~

Fruitbat

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 01:04 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Historically promo text gives us little, if anything, and is often total hype.

Gender lines make sense. Original bond paired with IC competition that is easier. Deena is keen on this.

The deal about Matt throwing competition is true, it is RC and Butch (hunter) wins and takes Christy to wash her hair. The "new view" is from a heliocopter, nothing more. It is to get us all excited and dismiss the obvious. Girls stick together. (They will discuss other options but will not do it.)

Fantasy.....purple rock. All reach in the bag and a guy goes. The women are F4 blowing ChillO's spoiler out of the water. (OK taking needle out of arm)

I think there is a tie, Jeff announces how it will be resolved before the second vote. They have to shift thing right there or all run the risk of the purple rock. Now that would be exciting. The regrouping would be all eye contact!

Alaginger

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 01:10 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Okay Folks!!! Now Hear This!!!

I just left Mediawhore, and the picks are up for Episode 9.
One of the questions is Who wins immunity? (10 points)....and the next question is "Who winds up with (or gets --- can't remember how it was worded) immunity? (90 points)....what is that all about.

Another question. Who takes off their top first?
Now what is that all about? I know Heidi said wait until Ep. 9.......but I don't see any evidence of that in the spear throwing, and definitely not in the insect eating.......so what gives?

Hermione69

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 01:19 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I don't play Mediawhore, but could those questions be "just in cases"? Meaning just because they are there, doesn't mean they'll happen. They are up there just in case they do happen so the possibility for points is there if they do happen. I don't think there will be any nudity this episode. MB would not pass up the opportunity to show it in a preview in hopes of snagging even more viewers. As far as the "Who winds up with immunity" I would guess that is just in case someone chooses to give it away.

Alaginger

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 01:23 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Hermie.......you are probably right.

Actually, I think I'll run back over there and change my guess to one of the guys. They can take their top off, too!!!.....trick question, dad-gum-'em!!! Thanks for making me rethink that one!!!

Also, regarding the immunity, I put the same person down for both because I have yet to see anybody give it up!!!

Clp

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 01:25 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Just some more to add to the pot!
Over at SS, CesearsFollies is posting that Butch, Christy, and Jenna are definitely in the Final 4. He also says Deena and Rob are NOT in the Final 4. Leaving us with Alex and Matt as the two left for the final spot.

CF has some creditbilty in that he spoiled Butch as a contestant prior to cast release and prior to CO.

So, it is just a little more confirmation of CO and narrows down to who goes this week - Deena, Rob, or Alex/Matt.

Alex lasting this long has me puzzled, as we were all convinced he bonded with Shawna at Loser Lodge. I am now wondering if the reason they have been so hush-hush about their relationship is because ALEX makes the F2 with Jenna!

Ginger - I think that immunity question is meant to find out if we think someone will finally give up immunity and give it to someone else. It doesn't mean it has to happen, just another question.

The taking off of clothes question fits right in with the Mediawhore game in that they always seem to have some sort of sex or naked question - ie, "any girl on girl action this week" or "whose naughty bits get blurred this week" etc.

Alaginger

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 01:37 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Thanks Clp......I just went back and said Matt takes his top off first (LOL). I must have as naughty a mind as they do because my first thoughts didn't go with one of the guys (DUH).

Hermione69

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 01:47 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I still think it is going to be Alex. Deena's weight loss spoiler sounded pretty legit to me. Posted at SurvivorNews-- "A longtime poster on another message board posted a rumor about Deena's possible longevity. 'She was gone from work for like 7 weeks & came back all tanned & 30 lbs lighter.....so everybody was going crazy trying to figure out what happened.'" I know she wanted the Survivor diet, but after near starvation for weeks, I don't know of many, if any, people with the willpower to not start overeating especially with what they would offer on a luxury yacht. If she goes next, she will have about 3 weeks on that yacht! That is a long time! I will be prepared to eat a lot of crow if it is Deena who goes, but Alex has no longevity indicators and will be seen as a bigger threat right now for challenges. Plus he is strutting it up and he is in no position to do that.

Car54

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 02:01 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
As far as I have heard there are no Alex spoilers period- with regard to longevity. The only post show info I have seen has been the dating Shawna thing.

He has done an excellent job of keeping things quiet.

Slightly off topic, but those Mediawhore questions make you think:

There was a thread the other day at SS about whether Jenna would have been strategic and should she have offered the IN to Matt.
She was clearly in no danger and she knew it- he was probably gonna get voted by some...she could have done it safely and that way if Matt ended up on the jury, she would have his vote.

Would it be received with gratitude, or perceived as arrogant by the others? Interesting to think about.
Is there ever going to be a time when it makes sense in the immediate situation and long term to give it away.

Kaili

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 02:03 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
One thing I have noticed about Mediawhore is that they often have questions that I think "not a chance" and I don't pick (on Bingo) or that I say won't happen. It turns out taht quite often they do happen and I end up with not a whole lot of points.

Clp

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 02:14 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Car - I have wondered about that too. I don't know if it would make people angry enough to vote the immunity giver or not. I could see that happening if it messed with an alliance, but I wouldn't think JP would let them discuss who they would alternately vote for sitting at tribal council.

I do think it could hurt the immunity giver because it could telegraph a hidden alliance to the rest of the tribe. Jenna and Matt don't appear to all that close, but her giving him immunity would definitely make the others wonder if they were secretly alligned.

Car54

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 02:21 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Yep, good thinking Clp. I think if Jenna did it, she would ensure Matt's vote if he was on the jury, but it would telegraph a message to the others..."She think she is sooooooo safe" and it might put you in jeopardy.

The only time I think it will happen is if you had a true personal relationship with someone in danger...a Rodger/Elisabeth kinda deal. Rodger would definitely have given her the necklace...similar to the way he told them that Liz needed the prize money more...let her stay 3 more days if it had to be one of them.

He knew he was going anyway and the relationship would matter more than the money. I can't think of a good STRATEGIC reason to do it..

Csnog

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 03:19 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
After Thursdays show there will be 12 days left for the remaining players.

Hermione69

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 03:45 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
That's all? Whoops. I totally miscalculated that one. I don't know now. I still think Deena is safe this round, but, like I said, I am totally prepared to dig into a big bowl of crow if I necessary!

Csnog

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 04:21 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Yep, 9x3= 27 days

39 days minus 27 = 12

Car54

Tuesday, April 08, 2003 - 04:32 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Help me out, Csnog, do you remember back before the show started, seems like I remember some info that they did not necessarily do the every three days thing with challenges...that they mixed it up and sometimes it was 2 or 4...just to keep people off balance.

Does anyone remember this or did I make it up?