Rank the Survivors' Chances of Winning (may contain spoilers)
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Muse

Saturday, November 16, 2002 - 11:31 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Just out of curiousity, who do you think has a good shot of winning right now? You can explain your reasoning if you want, and mention possible spoilers you might have heard as well. I'm not asking who you *want* to win (or who you fear will win), but who you *think* might win.

If I were to put them in order right now, starting with the person I think has the greatest odds of winning, I'd do something like this:

1) Ted - spoilers suggest he might make the final two, and I think he's been edited as the winner might be (visible without being the "star", not a villain).
2) Jan - For pretty much the same exact reasons as Ted. She and Ted also seem rather well liked by most of their fellow Survivors, too. Her strategy and alliances have been pretty well hidden, which is interesting. Plus several people seem to think she's just a pawn in the game, which might help her get far.
3) Penny - A few spoilers out there about her making the final two and possibly winning (although there's the one that says she *doesn't* win, too). She seems to be overlooked by the others, but she could be sneaky. Plus I imagine she could do well on endurance challenges or competitions involving knowing your fellow Survivors.
4) Helen - We don't know her strategy or alliances yet, and her editing is similar to Ted and Jan's.
5) Jake - Not really a whole lot to go on here.
6) Clay - They seem to be highlighting how he might be a bit of a rat, so I'm starting to feel like we're not supposed to be rooting for him. Plus there's spoilers that suggest that he goes far (final four?), but doesn't win.
7) Brian - Too much of a "star" of the show, and they seem to be showing more of his negative (especially arrogance) qualities lately. It seems heavily foreshadowed that he's in for a big fall. I would think that maybe that's a mislead, but it really does seem like others consider him to be a physical threat, immature, and a person who doesn't need the money.

Llkoolaid

Monday, November 18, 2002 - 11:36 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I pretty much agree with what you have said Muse but I think I would switch Helen and Penny around. I would put Brian in last place because he is a big threat.

Jagger

Monday, November 18, 2002 - 01:23 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
My guess for winning it all will be Helen, with Jan being in second place.

I think Brian will be the next person from his original tribe to get the boot, this may not be until the rest of the other tribe is gone though.

I think Helen, Jan, and Clay will team together and get rid of Brian and Ted

Jake and Penny will be the next two to go.

I don't read any of the spoilers so mine guesses are strictly that, kind of like throwing names in the hat and pulling them out.

Llkoolaid

Monday, November 18, 2002 - 02:14 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
At least you are guessing Jagger that is more than most people.

Come on people tell us your opinions, don't just lurk, the board needs your input to make it interesting.

Clp

Monday, November 18, 2002 - 10:42 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
OK - long time lurker, posted some on the Bachelor (EGADS - I still can't believe I admit to loving that train wreck of a show - I am even having a "Bachelor Party" Wed. - but I digress)

My thoughts on the castaways left-

1- Clay - call me crazy but my gut is he takes this further than we think. MB has edited each winner differently - RICH - manipulator & cutthroat, TINA - coatail rider, but likeable, ETHAN - quiet nice guy, built goodwill, VEE - ARG! Who even knew who she was! Never has the crazy, funny, crusty, annoying guy/gal won. (ie - Rudy, Mad Dog, Big Tom, Kathy). So its time for this character type to win.

2 - Jan - I think she is Clay's secret pair. He takes her along but people vote for Clay because she was along for the ride.

3 - Helen - F3, but neither Jan nor Clay will break their alliance and also see her as too much of a threat with the jury.

4 - Ted - Brian's pair. C, J, H take him out.

5 - Brian - too much of a threat, too much Rich Hatch. This cast, out of all, seem to be Survivor fans and watchers, they know to get rid of this threat.

6/7 - Jake/Penny - It is a toss up on their order, but despite the editing, MB is trying to give us the impression that Sook Jai won't be pagonged, i think he is just trying to keep interest up. Chuay Ghan know this game, anyone who turns their back on the tribe may make it to the Final 2, but it will cut their throats with the Chuy Ghan heavy jury!

OK - my 2¢ - Discuss!

Shortnsweet

Tuesday, November 19, 2002 - 12:01 am EditMoveDeleteIP
The only problem I have with a Clay/Jan alliance is: Jan voted (with Ghandia) for Clay to go, and she told Ghandia that she would not vote out Ted. Now this could have been because Jan was smart enough (is that possible?) to know that it would be suicide to vote out a major physical threat before the merge, but I think Jan likes Ted.

Llkoolaid

Tuesday, November 19, 2002 - 04:45 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Yea, discussion. Clp, I noticed you in the Bachelor threads, I too am watching this show, and wondering why.

Shortnsweet, I agree that there is more likely a bond between Ted and Jan. I see Clays game exploding in his face with the votes to Ted thing. I think he is not going to last long. I have my fingers crossed there is going to be a big blowout this week. We need something to keep this show alive, it is gasping for air and I see Survivor losing fans with this season. Look at this board, last season if you posted an opinion you better be ready for a dozen people to disagree and give you their ideas. It was so much fun. What is happening, I want to go back to the days this summer when we had the love/hate thing going on BB with Danielle ( I still think she was the best player lol ).

I don't want to see Clay go because he is the only evil little bugger left on the show. I disagree that Jake or Penny are going this week. I am going to say that Helen, Jan and Ted side with Jake and Penny to get rid of Clay and Brian. They will still have Jake and Penny out numbered and can get rid of Brian and Clay who are big threats for immunity. It all depends on what is going on with the Ted brooding thing.

Zipsdaddy

Tuesday, November 19, 2002 - 05:01 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Wow, are we finally get excited about this show?
I'm thinking the whole Clay/Ted thing will explode in Clays face, if Clay goes, we should see Brian scheming much harder. That will get him out next.
Then Penny schemes, and she is ousted.......
Flying under the radar is crucial right now....
I hope Helen and Jan and Ted have a secret alliance......
I can almost see Jake and Jan right to the end... with Jan winning....
Let's hear it for senior citizens!!

Fruitbat

Tuesday, November 19, 2002 - 05:54 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I see Ted sticking with Brian. He is convinced they are together until the end. I do not see Brian going for awhile.

I think Jake goes this week.

Helen is my biggest contender to win with Ted and Brian close behind.

The Penny spoiler.........don't know what to make of this. I don't want to believe this because it makes no sense. But because of this I have to put her in F4.

Essence

Tuesday, November 19, 2002 - 06:06 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I'll take a stab at this...

Brian...chances are good for a Brian win. At this point he hasn't really offended anyone (not that I've seen). Derogatory comments made about women are in confessional and the women don't know about them per Erin's interviews. From what we've seen, he's made himself a valuable part of both Ted and Clay's games. If one goes he still has the other. The only person on to him is Jake, and he won't be around much longer.

Penny...I think she's safe for a while. The old CG will get rid of Jake, and then turn on each other. If she flies under the radar, she has a good chance of making final 2 or 3. Then it's up to her.

Jan...No one is after her at all (not that we can see). At this point there are bigger fish to fry.

Ted...This is where it starts to get tricky for me. I can see Ted making the final four, and then getting booted. While he was away, I think it was Clay saying how slow Ted is, that he's not that great at challenges. If this is how they really feel, they may not think he's that much of an immunity threat and he will get by a few more tribal councils.

Helen...She has too much to say about everything. I think a Helen boot will come because she has simply gotten on people's nerves. Once Clay is gone, she will have no one to complain to. Sure Jan will be there, but at that point Jan will be looking out for herself.

Clay...He will be outed by Jake and Penny about the Ted vote. They will see he cannot be trusted, and out he will go.

Jake...I think it's just his time to go next episode. He will get one last dig in...outing Clay, and his services will no longer be needed.

I really don't know what I'm talking about here, and it looks like my 'guesses' are straying a bit from everyone else's, but it's my worth.

Fruitbat

Tuesday, November 19, 2002 - 06:38 am EditMoveDeleteIP
You make sense. I agree that Ted is not an IC threat, he is too big and lumbering for physical IC's and he does not strike me as having a fast mind for a memory game or puzzle.

Clay is likely to go after Jake.....
Leaving Helen, Jan, Penny, Brian and Ted. It is unlikely that the women will vote the men out. Helen and Jan have too much history with them. Logic tells me Penny would go..........but the spoiler........???

Hermione69

Tuesday, November 19, 2002 - 07:50 am EditMoveDeleteIP
1, 2, 3. Jan/Helen/Ted

•I can see any of them winning. There are spoilers that they go far. I believe in the weight loss spoilers (I know a lot of people don't) and these spoilers are significant for them.

•I think Jan and Ted may have a hidden alliance. I know in confessional that he always talks about his alliance with Brian, but, possibly in my overactive imagination, I have picked up on a rapport between Jan and Ted.

•There is also a spoiler that Ted gets a visit from his brother, an RC that usually comes closer to the end.

•There are spoilers that Jan brought souvenirs back that possibly indicate her being in the F2. In addition, nobody has even considered her to be a threat and they probably won't until it comes right down to the wire and they look at her and think, "Oh sh**! She is going to get all the votes for the million!"

•I pick Helen over Brian and Clay for the F3 spot because I think Clay and Brian both are scheming too much and it will backfire on them.

4, 5. Brian/Clay

•I go back and forth between these two. I think Brian is playing too many people and it will catch up to him.

•I don't think Clay is all that well liked, although I have started to wonder if he and Helen have a hidden alliance. Neither Clay nor Brian has been portrayed in that favorable of a light lately which also may indicate that neither will win it all. A lot of people at other boards say that MB wants us to like the winner and tends to portray that person more favorably (except for S1, of course!)

•There is a weight loss spoiler for Brian, but no numbers were reported just that he looked "gaunt." I give less weight (pun intended) to that than the weight loss spoilers with actual, significant numbers.

•A good weight loss spoiler for Clay is out there, as well as some cryptic comments he has made to people at his restaurant that indicate he does pretty well. If you twist my arm into choosing one of them, I would pick Clay to beat Brian out for that F4 spot, but then be the next to go after that.

•I also think Clay's being at Penny's wedding means they bond on the jury. I know a lot of people don't agree with this, but I think it is significant that he is the only CG that went. Normally I wouldn't trust the Nat. Enq. but they called the Ghandia situation pretty accurately. Some people argued that there are many factors that could indicate why others were not there, such as money or prior plans. All I know is that if someone is special to me, I will do all I can to be at that person's wedding. As far as money goes, somebody on this board reported that Robb's winnings were around $25,000 so you can't convince me that the people voted off later than Robb were not able to afford to go.

6, 7. Jake/Penny

•Most people have marked Jake as this week's bootee. I can see that and have picked him myself for now. As for Penny, I just don't see her going much further than this unless she goes on an immunity run.

•The "sightings" of Penny that put her in the F4 are dubious to me and if they ARE true, I think Jan, from a distance, could be mistaken as the "young girl" that people think indicates Penny. Jan is thin, and has blonde hair that she often wears in pigtails. If you had no preconceptions about her and saw her across the beach, I think she would seem young. I think of some of the screen shots I have seen of her and if they are not very clear, I can't always tell if it is her or Penny.

•One thing I am puzzling over-- that comment of Jake's in the CBS preview about "It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings, but I think she's warming up" practically gives us Jake on a silver platter and I don't know that MB would be that transparent. I may have to change this week's pick to Penny based on that alone.

Fruitbat

Tuesday, November 19, 2002 - 09:02 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Good Herm! I like your logic.

The only thing I would change is MB not telegraphing the bootee. We will hear this but see someone else being the target. So as we watch the show we should know that Jake goes if another is the focus. I am expecting to see Penny "look" as if she is the vote.

Hermione69

Tuesday, November 19, 2002 - 03:19 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Thanks Fruit! :) Now I will probably be all wrong, but it was fun to think about.

I forgot to mention that over at other boards, they are reminding everyone that Brian is the last one left on Ghandia's list of "Stars" that is still around. Some think that means he won't make it that much further. Others think that she just picked him for his looks and his being there is meaningless. I had forgotten ALL about him being on that list. Noteworthy or not? You decide. One person at Sux asked, "Why is Jan not on that list?" which I thought was a good point. Of course, we have the looks factor and Jan is no centerfold, but if Ghandia is listing her buddies, why no Jan? Jan is the one that stood by her and voted against Clay back during Ghandiagate (as Fruitbat calls it). Could it be because Jan DOES go very far, like F2 far, and Ghandia, as brash as she is, didn't dare mention her?

Everyone knows I am a Jan fan and I know I tend to argue the evidence that supports her so I have to be careful to keep my mind open, but I still thought this was worth passing on. :)

Jagger

Wednesday, November 20, 2002 - 11:51 am EditMoveDeleteIP
My breakdown of how they get booted.

This week will be Jake, with everyone from the one tribe giving him the boot and he and Penny voting to boot Brian.

Next week they boot out Penny by the same voting pattern.

Week after that is when the true alliances show up, this will be Clay, Jan and Helen to go against Brian and Ted with Brian getting the boot. While Brian and Ted vote to boot Jan, thinking that Clay will vote with them.

Week after that it will be Ted getting the boot, with the voting the same as the week before.


We are down to the final 3 with Helen winning the comp and deciding to take Jan with to the final 2 and ending up with Helen winning it all.

This could get totally hosed with certain people winning immunity at the wrong time.

Webkitty

Thursday, November 21, 2002 - 07:55 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I'm starting to think Jan really does win this.

After tonights show, the rest of them seem desperate and paranoid, (except for Brian) Jan is being overlooked.
Jake's vote for her was just because he was being true to Penny and Jan would be the lest likely CG to make a stink about getting a vote.

Jan seems to really suck at physical challenges, but I bet she could stand holding onto a pole for a looong time. This is the traditional last challenge, unless MB changes it this time.
She did ok tonight with the questions, so she might do well with fallen comrades too.

This is the point in the game when everyone should take a deep breath and exhale slowly. They should look around and note who has been on the quite side, getting along with everyone, and not making waves, and BOOT THEM!

Vee, MamaKim, Tina, and Coleen. Two actually won and the other two came very close.
(I'm not including Kelly W. because she doesn't quite fit the above profile, conflict between her and Sue) I can see Jan being added to the list. There seems to be a pattern.

Who comes in second this time is anyones guess, but I really think it might be Brian, his editing is different than the rest. He is the only one left that doesn't seem to have doubts and feels secure.

My opinion is that MB doesn't edit willy nilly, there is a reason for everything he shows us.
I've mentioned this before, but Kathy's loose top all last season. It played a part in her demise, didn't it?

I also think Hermione made a good point about Ghandia and her "star" list, why NOT include Jan unless she goes far?

Muse

Thursday, November 21, 2002 - 11:00 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I thought my list might change after tonight's episode, but it didn't. I think it's between Helen, Ted, and Jan at this point. I think all stand a good shot at making the final three since Brian and Clay are being seen as alliance partners by the others, since Clay isn't very well liked, and since Brian is a physical threat. As for Jake...well, people would probably be concerned about being on the jury with him since he was a member of SJ. He might very well get votes from Erin, Ken, and Penny, as well as from any CG who felt betrayed by the other person in the final two. He'd also probably get credit for beating the odds and playing the game well. So while I don't think he'll go *right* away, I don't see him making the final two.

I also think that Helen and Jan (especially Helen) are smarter players than we've been led to believe, and right now they're in a position to shake things up a little.

Out of the three I mentioned as being the strongest contenders for the final three, I think Ted or Jan would both probably beat Helen. All three seem relatively well-liked by the jury, but people might see Jan as someone who would "need" the money, and Ted as someone who played the game the best.