Archive through May 15, 2002
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The ClubHouse: Archives: Plottin' and Plannin': Archive through May 15, 2002

Weinermr

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 02:45 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I have this feeling, I don't know why, that Sean wins the IC, then decides NOT to give it to Vee, and Vee gets voted off this week.

Sean's decision not to pass the necklace to Vee ultimately loses him the win (assuming the final 2 are Kathy and Sean). It just seems right to me.

Car54

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 02:49 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I like your thinking, and I would be fine with Vee leaving, but that means Kathy stays with P&N, and also who except Vee would vote against Sean for NOT giving up the necklace... seems like everyone on the jury so far kept it if they won it.

Not flaming here Weiner...really..I just want to hear more.

It would also mean that Kathy conciously chooses to vote with P&N instead of S&V. I can buy that part...if you think, I can't think of ever seeing Kathy comment one way or another about Sean and Vee.. that has to be an editing choice... Kathy talks to the camera all the time.

Say more....

Weinermr

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 03:12 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
OK. Loyalty, or perceived loyalty, means alot to these people. The last IC's could play out several different ways, but let's follow it this way.

I do think that Kathy will ultimately side with P/N this week over S/V. Then we are down to 4 and Sean will have to win the IC one more time so as not to get voted out of the final 3. Sean is strong and smart, so he will be able to handle a physical or a mental IC.

With immunity, Sean can't get voted off, and that is the time when Kathy will have to vote either Paschal or Neleh, and it will be to her advantage at that point to align with Sean so they vote the same person. Let's say they choose Paschal, and there is a tie between Paschal and Kathy - and then however the tiebreaker plays out, Paschal loses. That leaves Sean, Neleh, and Kathy. Kathy was forced by the circumstances to vote Paschal or Neleh, so it will not be perceived as a betrayal.

Last IC, a Kathy or a Sean win means Neleh is off, and Kathy and Sean are the final 2. How will the jury vote?

John - Sean
Zoe - Kathy
Tammy - Kathy
Robert - Kathy
Paschal - Sean
Neleh - Kathy
Vee - Sean

I think a vote between Kathy and Sean is closer than we think. The final vote could play out several different ways, but I don't see Paschal's loyalty to either Sean or Kathy written in stone. I think his perception of her loyalty vs. Sean's loyalty will sway his vote towards Kathy. I think Robert too will be influenced by this perception of loyalty, and ultimately choose Kathy over Sean because of it. Kathy will win by 1 vote.

All this is highly speculative of course, but will be interesting to watch.

Weinermr

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 03:17 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
One more point. Kathy's choice of P/N over S/V this week is just that - a choice, not a betrayal. Kathy has always been more a part of Paschal and Neleh than Sean and Vee anyway. It's a subtle difference, but I think it's an important one. I think it would ultimately be seen as a betrayal for her to side with Sean and Vee - almost a switching of sides vs. simply staying with the side she is already on.

Kathy's staying with Paschal and Neleh - a choice.
Sean not protecting Vee - a betrayal - a subtle one at that, but yet a betrayal.

It's the best I can come up with right now.

Webkitty

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 03:29 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
If you go by the spoiler vidcaps over at SS MESS, it shows them walking to tribal, Kathy looks like she is wearing the IN. Sean doesn't have one on.

Car54

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 03:34 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Ok, I can actually buy into most of what you are speculating... I can see Kathy choosing to stay with P&N one more round...she was part of their original tribe, they went to Maraamu together- she and S&V have nothing in common except that they want to win.
I can see her choosing Sean after this. She has already stated that she knows P&N must be broken up, and it may be long sighted of her to wait one more episode.

To some degree, I may disagree with a couple of your jury votes.. I do not think Tammy is going to vote for Kathy.

The ONLY thing I simply cannot see is anyone on the jury making a judgement against Sean for not giving away immunity if he wins it. Everyone in the game is there to stay in the game and the people on the jury now are some of the most competitive players in the game.

Two of the jury had the choice to make and chose to keep immunity at the cost of losing an alliance member. So that is the only part I just can't see.

Good spec, Weiner!

Weinermr

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 03:38 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Car, it's a fine point, and it may not even matter at all, but I think it COULD be a deciding factor one way or the other. Just my idle speculatin'

Car54

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 03:51 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Yeah if Webkitty is right, we are just killing time til the show starts!

Weinermr

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 03:56 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
True, but that's an interesting twist. If Kathy wins the IC THIS week, she has won an awful lot lately and it may make her more of a target later on. Hmmmmmm

Car54

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 04:02 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
For some reason I think Kathy is here til the end... but the other "twist" we haven't speculated on yet in addition to the ability to
give away the IC necklace is what happens if there is a tie?
MB said that since prior votes no longer count, there would be "dire consequences" in the event of a tie.
Even tho there are 5 players, there could be a 2-2-1 tie!

Wink

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 04:40 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
"Dire" would indicate either the IC winner or the jury gets to vote.

Mware

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 04:41 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
OK, here's my take - If Kathy wins immunity this week, Vee looks like the one to go. Pappy's bonding with Sean a couple of weeks ago (just 6 days ago real time???) suggests that he would vote for Vee to go. (I'd like a Vee, to go please?) Neleh would then vote Vee as well. Kathy could vote Vee with no problems or repercussions, and out goes Vee.

I've looked at all the combinations after that, and I've come to the conclusion that if Vee goes this week, the next vote will be a tie. By necessity, Kathy and Sean end up covering each other's backs. And that puts them up against P/N anyway I slice it.

It'll be great to see what the "dire consequences" are though. Maybe another visit from someone we'd never believe, ha ha ha.

Webkitty

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 04:51 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Kathy wins immunity this week. I didn't make myself clear in my above post. The vidcaps clearly show S/V/P/N on their way to TC, with their straw BACKPACKS on. Kathy is bringing up the rear, and does NOT have one on.
Also, you have to strain to see it, but it sure looks like she has on the immunity necklace.

There is also speculation that she wins the RC, I'll buy into that. Its an SUV on a barge.
The "fight" that N/P and S/V have that night does not show Kathy in the vidcaps. It is believed she get to go on the barge, and spend the night, maybe get cleaned up with a meal. (those barges are huge!)

The best of times, the worst of times. Kathy wins the RC, the best of times, but has to decide which alliance to break up. The worst of times.

This is the Kathy show, folks, has been from the very start.
MB has done some great editing, there have been ups and downs and loop-de-loops, but Kathy has been in the middle of it the whole time. (don't worry Mr Weiner! everything is good...)

I think the "surprise" this week will be that VEE goes, even though Kathy has said Pappy is a threat. We shall see............... There has been speculation for a long time that Sean goes right about this time, but I don't think so.

Fruitbat

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 04:53 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
It seems that loyality and betrayal are not in their vocabulary this season. They all sincerely love each other and simultaneously recognize that they are playing a game to win.

The editing is screaming at me now. Kathy has not been shown talking to or about Sean and Vee. We are led to believe she is closer to P and N. I am not convinced.

I can see Kathy going either way. I am buying the spoiler that she wins IC.

I think the vote this week will be as usual but next week we will be in for a surprize. MB has changed the routine with the final 4 and I am soooooooo looking forward to the change.

Webkitty

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 05:21 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Fruitbat, I missed that MB has changed the routine with the final 4. Where can I read about this?

Car54

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 05:25 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I think that is spec, Webkitty, there has been talk that somehow instead of a final IC, the jury might get involved or some other twist. I haven't seen an official info anywhere I have been.

Fruitbat

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 05:50 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Nothing official. Hunter mentioned that there was a surprize ending. Nothing could really be surprizing at this point unless it was a major change in the format. That is what I think.

Car54

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 05:58 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
When John was booted he also said "you haven't seen the last of me", which has led to spec that he does a Sue Hawk in the final vote.

Surprise... earthquake, eclipse, momentous events... it is all in the marketing.

Car54

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 06:01 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
HEY! Did everybody but me know the finale was Sunday instead of next Thursday?

Where have I been? Who is in charge of this?

Webkitty

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 06:20 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Yes I knew Car and thank God! My husband has to have surgery next Thursday and I was feeling SO GUILTY that I was worrying about how I would watch the Survivor finale in a proper manner at the hospital!

Car54

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 06:22 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Well for Heck's sake, Webkitty, at least you had your priorities straight.
Damn, I woulda been watching the Sopranos reruns!

Seamonkey

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 06:23 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
http://www.survivor-central.com/columns/articlenew.php?columns_id=236

Final four prediction for "Fallen Comrades"

Pamy

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 07:47 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I love the idea of the jury breaking a tie!!! much better than a q/a session. Maybe the final vote is a tie and then what would they do?? Have Rosie pick?

Tksoard

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 08:25 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Seamonkey, that was SO funny, I almost peed on John!!!!! HHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

Webkitty

Wednesday, May 15, 2002 - 08:58 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
The only huge shocker I could think of at this point would be if Kathy doesn't make it to the final two.

Car, I'm really surprised that you didn't know the finale was Sunday. You are the #1 poster around here with articles and info of all sorts to keep us up to date on everything. ~very strange~ (Seamonkey, your right up there too!