Archive through December 03, 2001

The ClubHouse: Archives: TVCH Alliance #2 Plotting & Planning Thread: Archive through December 03, 2001

Grooch

Wednesday, November 28, 2001 - 10:05 am Click here to edit this post
I forgot to add. I think Kelly and Kim will make their move after this next vote. I think that Kelly may have bonded with KimP and after all the unwanted Borans are gone, Brandon will be the next to go.

I can't imagine KimP have any sympathy for Brandon after he abandoned her after Lindsey was voted off. He blew it there. So KimP will vote Brandon off too.

Micknrc

Wednesday, November 28, 2001 - 11:14 am Click here to edit this post
Grooch, I agree that it's likely to be between Frank and Theresa, but i'm not so sure that it's Kelly and Kim(which one?)who will protect her, but Big Tom, who we've seen is apparently sportin' wood for her. If you combine that idea with the anti-lexheads' who think Lex "made" Tom vote for Clarence over Brandon, it may be that Tom insists on his choice getting the Boran boot this week--or at least the veto of a possible T-bird boot.

If they (L,T,E)continue with the "let's get rid of the strongest": it's Frank

If they decide to throw Tom (and maybe even Frank) a bone: it's Brandon

But if they're smart: it's T-bird who should get the boot--not just because she's a strong competitor, but because if they don't look out, the women will outnumber them soon and could take the game over at that point.

I also think that they may want to make nice with Frank for now, to avoid that scenario, but then again, he's still pretty tight with Teresa...

Why does everyone sense this alliance with Kelly and MamaKim? I think kelly's only real alliance just got the boot...what she's been smart about is keeping her mouth shut(at least in front of the others) and staying a good, if safe, middle course. She will have to move off of that if she wants into the Final Four, as you all have pointed out. Which is another reason to cut a women + Brandon thing off at the pass now.

So my vote right now is Frank off, (male primate instinct--to feel threatened by other male)
But if I were in their shoes I'd get rid of Teresa

I reserve the right to change these votes back and forth(Brandon is still sticking in the back of my mind)at least a dozen times before Dec 6.

The wild theory my hubby swears by: when I asked for his opinion (now that I've risen to 207 at SDP I'm really taking this WAY too seriously...lol)he says that this week will be.....(drumroll)......

Kim P!!

After I gave him the hairy eyeball, I demanded he explain his reasoning and he says that she doesn't really have anyone on her side (except Brandon--and we know he's not going to fall on his sword for her) so giving her the boot would serve the purpose of keeping the possible old sambooboo as well as female #s down, and really wouldn't tick anyone off either...at first I thought he was nuts, but there does come that time post merge where they just start getting rid of the ones who are NOT the ones they like or are really friendly with (the name Amber is coming to mind). Yeah, I know it's a nutty theory, but he's a nutty guy--just thought i'd throw it out there to give us new food for thought and just in case he's right he can tell me "I told you so" and it's documented...
*whew*
I'll stop now.

Grooch

Wednesday, November 28, 2001 - 11:42 am Click here to edit this post
Micknrc,

Thanks for throwing a few monkey wrenches into my theory. LOL!

I agree, if the men are smart, they should get rid of Theresa. The question is, are they so blinded by power that they underestimated their Boran female tribemates, or is Lex a genious and has figured out this angle?

I think KimJ and Kelly have an alliance because they really have no one else. And they are both clever at figuring out this alliance stuff.

So know I need to figure out if Lex is aware of the potential threat that he has. Hmmmmm.

Micknrc

Wednesday, November 28, 2001 - 11:53 am Click here to edit this post
Exactly Grooch! I'm always torn between what my strategy would be and what I think THEY might actually be thinking....lol

Grooch

Wednesday, November 28, 2001 - 12:07 pm Click here to edit this post
I just thought of another monkeywrench.

To me, there are only 2 groups with the possibility of winning if they realize the power they have and their potential pitfalls.

KimJ/Kelly and Lex/Tom

The only thing that could really screw either of them up is if either side goes for the kill with a powermove that enlists Brandon on their side, so they have to give Brandon some info and Brandon being a little snot, goes and runs to the other side and blabs to them everything. Because he knows he won't win so he wants to screw everyone up to get his jollies.

Brandon is the monkeywrench!

Corabell

Wednesday, November 28, 2001 - 12:41 pm Click here to edit this post
I think it would be suicidal for any of the Borans to join up with the Samburus right now. Not only would they lose the jury votes of the other Borans, but they most definitely would be voted out. That's why I think its instrumental that if MamaKim and Kelly are going to make a move, they wait until only two people are left. Their team of two with a team of two Samburus could then take out the Tom/Lex/Ethan alliance. Sure they would be taking a chance about if their power of two could take the Samburu power of two, but that is the only shot they have of winning. Otherwise, the Lex/Tom/Ethan alliance will go all the way. And I do believe there is a MamaKim/Kelly alliance, because (like Grooch said) they have no one else. Also, they were the ones signaling each other and conspiring during the switch. If Kelly and MamaKim are in an alliance (and are seriously trying to win), I believe they will try to save Frank this week, so that he is one of the two to align with. That way they are ahead by default. Anyway, I'm going with Teresa out next. Her immunity win was enough to make her a marked woman. Why didn't she just let Clarence have that last one? She started thinking just a little too late. This tribal council is one tribal council too late for the Samburus to take on the Borans.

Fruitbat

Wednesday, November 28, 2001 - 12:46 pm Click here to edit this post
I agree with all you have said Grooch and that is why I voted Frank off. Theresa is in danger too but I think Frank is their next mark.

I am convinced Kelly and Mamakim are tightly aligned. They are not showing us that at all. What we do not see is what is.

Kelly and KimJ could easily wait until zero hour and enlist the last Samburu, whoever that may be to join them. They do not want to tip their hand yet.

Car54

Wednesday, November 28, 2001 - 12:55 pm Click here to edit this post
YESSSSSSSSSSSSSS
This is what I have been saying all week! Pagonging as usual for 2 episodes- it really doesn't matter who they vote-the remaining Samburus will be desperate to bond with someone-
If Ke/Kj are smart, they will try to steer L/T/E toward the biggest popularity/immunity threats
(Frank & Teresa) let L/T take the heat for voting them off- so Ke/Kj get their jury votes.
The only flaw I see in this is IC- can Ke/Kj beat the remaining Samburus for immunity at the final 4&3 stage? If it is endurance or physical, Kimp is pretty athletic, and Ke/Kj are real losers at the physical challenges.
Anyway... now that we have all this figured out, I feel sure MB is definitely going to split them into 3 tribes just to make us cry!

Car54

Wednesday, November 28, 2001 - 03:49 pm Click here to edit this post
Oh my, I just had another thought....
if Lex is on a hunt to find the person who voted him,
and if Teresa is trying to put together a defensive alliance,

what if she approaches Tom- she was sure bonding with him at the feast!

and what if Tom rats her out to Lex......

Micknrc

Wednesday, November 28, 2001 - 04:50 pm Click here to edit this post
yeah, baby....

Car54

Friday, November 30, 2001 - 10:57 am Click here to edit this post
Its a new day, I have a new theory....
What if Kelly is in a secret alliance with LEX.
When they got swapped, Lex said that he, Tom and Kelly would all make the final 4.
What IF....
Kelly is really manipulating everyone....
Example: She is the one who found Ethan & Jessie together... she thought Jessie was too cute and athletic- did she whisper in Lex's ear..."Jessie is sick" so he would nom her?
Example: She and Clarence have a private conversation about how much Lex irritates them- he treats them like children.
Kelly talks about how vain Clarence is to the camera
Post boot, Clarence says he trusts Kelly more than anyone-leaves her his warpaint.
Kelly votes for Clarence-
Did she go to Lex and SUGGEST Clarence?

She says her favorite pastime is manipulating men... is she playing EVERYBODY???????

She is the one who overheard Lindsay and Brandon discussing Lindsay's votes....went right to Lex.
Think about it....hmmmm

Grooch

Friday, November 30, 2001 - 11:02 am Click here to edit this post
Car, Stop it! I can't take any more!

I don't know where Kelly's alliance is, but I figure that she is going to be one of the final two.

Car54

Friday, November 30, 2001 - 11:22 am Click here to edit this post
Aw Grooch! You're no fun!!!!!!!

I actually think that either Kelly and Brandon or Kelly and Frank may be the final 2.

I have a chart in my head of the step by step moves to get there.
I know I thought Frank was out, but that was at least 2 days ago.....by next week, I will figure out a way that Jeff Probst could win!

If you're not good, I will post it!!!!:)

Egbok

Saturday, December 01, 2001 - 04:06 pm Click here to edit this post
I know this is the Plotting & Planning thread of which I have neither. I do have a question though. I've seen it referenced twice recently where "Ethan & Jessie were found together". I'll confess, I don't know what this means but I have lots of unspoken ideas rolling around in my head, hee-hee!!

Can someone clue me in? Thanks!!

Lilliegirl

Saturday, December 01, 2001 - 06:39 pm Click here to edit this post
I think Car has it right,Kelly is playing both sides she voted like Lex said or her butt would be up next even though she said she had bonded with Clarence. I think Teresa will be voted off next but I would love to see Lex take a hike next.They think Brandon is no threat to them so they will let it ride. I would LMAO if Brandon won.

Car54

Sunday, December 02, 2001 - 05:10 am Click here to edit this post
Egbok, I have looked back, can't remember exactly where I read it but the jist of the Ethan/Jessie rumor is that in the beginning, one night Kelly was on guard duty, and went to wake up Jessie and found Jessie sleeping with Ethan.
As I recall she was concerned that Jessie was pretty and athletic, and this bond with Ethan worried her-she said something to the camera about "If I get voted off because he slept with her,...." anyway Jessie was off that week.

Car54

Sunday, December 02, 2001 - 05:25 am Click here to edit this post
Lilliegirl, what I am actually thinking is that Kelly is actually feeding the boots to L/T-for her own benefit. When they were traded, Lex essentially told her she was in the final 4, but I think she is setting herself up to do better if she can. She was worried about Jessie being prettier and more athletic, Jessie is gone, she is the one who reported Lindsay's votes to Lex and Tom (note: she also tried to get the mallrats to vote Lex instead of Tom by telling them he had votes), she supposedly was friends with Clarence, but then on the recap show we see here telling the camera how vain he is- Clarence is gone.

On the last episode she was bad-mouthing Frank-so I am thinking he will be the next target, but we have Teresa's Lex vote, immunity, maybe something will happen to intervene!

She has said here one of her favorite pastimes is manipulating men....I think she must be having a very good time!

Grooch

Sunday, December 02, 2001 - 11:11 am Click here to edit this post
Kelly is the female Will Kirby!

Kep421

Sunday, December 02, 2001 - 12:04 pm Click here to edit this post
Your so right Grooch, Kelly is the female Will Kirby, sans charm!!!!

She is almost as charming as Justin.....but not quite. Justin made me smile - once.

Car54

Sunday, December 02, 2001 - 12:59 pm Click here to edit this post
Ok, I am officially thinking of splitting my votes- I am in both alliances at the deadpool, and I have to vote tomorrow (unspoiled)-I got skunked last week, so I don't want to totally blow it.
I am completely torn between voting Teresa or Frank off.
I am very suspicious of Teresa being the one because:
1. Lex is on a hunt for the "rat"-and the episode this week is called "smoking out the Snake"- I think this refers back to the old Sue Hawk analogy where she said Rich (the snake) ate the rat (Kelly). I think Lex is the snake and he is hunting for the rat.... I think Teresa might get away with facing him and explaining, but she is shown on camera discussing an alliance with the mallrats, and the clues this week imply that they approach a Boran- whoever that is would be stupid at this point not to tell L/E/T- and then is when I think they would vote T out. No Boran needs to defect yet...they can stand pat for at least 1 or 2 more episodes, and that is the safest thing to do. Right now the 3 people who might be approached are Tom, Kelly and Kim- I think Tom would tell immediately- he has a bond with Lex, Kelly and Kim are vying with each other for the final 4 slot- and may still be trying for that.
2. The other target is Frank- he is acting pretty weird, got a LOT of face time in the recap episode, Kelly is saying he needs medication...
(Kelly not liking you is not good for your health as a Survivor).

If the whole Snake/Rat thing is a total red herring, then I think it could be Frank...
Frank is not too popular with either Samburu or Boran, whereas Teresa has some friends- so he would be the easiest....

Anyway, right now, I am thinking vote T in one alliance, F in the other....that way I don't lose it all. OH- this is getting way harder!!!!

Sunshinemiss

Sunday, December 02, 2001 - 01:36 pm Click here to edit this post
Hey Car how do you split votes? I just joined a second alliance and I only voted once; doesn't it just apply the same to both alliances? Help! I am doing horribly and would like to hedge my bets if I can...

Egbok

Sunday, December 02, 2001 - 03:25 pm Click here to edit this post
Thanks Car, I really appreciate the insight.

Car54

Sunday, December 02, 2001 - 06:08 pm Click here to edit this post
Sunshinemiss, I vote in one alliance under one user name, and the other under another name.

I usually vote the same in both, unless something big comes to light late in the week. This week, I am thinking of voting differently in the 2 alliances so maybe I won't be wrong both times.

(How many survivors are there? I may need to join some more alliances to get this right!)

Llkoolaid

Sunday, December 02, 2001 - 07:25 pm Click here to edit this post
Wouldn't it be wise for Kelly to join the mallrats and Frank and Theresa now. That would give them control and then when it gets down to 5 she would have the mallrats on her side and would get to the final 3 who she could beat in the challenge and take Brandon with her to the final 2. She would win the vote. Ok I know this is assuming a lot but don't you think this is a good choice for her. Please tear this idea apart because it seeems too obvious to me so it must be wrong. I am not very good at predicting what these people will do.

Car54

Monday, December 03, 2001 - 12:24 am Click here to edit this post
LL, the deal is jury votes. If she openly betrays L/E/T, they have to vote for her to win.
If she sticks by them a couple more times and lets them take the heat for booting a couple more, then leaps when she "has no choice" she has
a chance to gain more jury votes. She might luck out on challenges, but as we have seen with Clarence and Teresa, that makes you a target too.

I have been thinking let L/E/T take out Teresa or Frank...
If she leaps too soon or too publicly, she can endanger her jury votes- the longer she lets others take the responsibility for booting, the safer she is.

I like the idea of taking Brandon to the finals- that is her best chance right now-if she went head to head with any others she would have a hard time winning with the jury.