Archive through November 28, 2001
The ClubHouse: Archives: TVCH Alliance #2 Plotting & Planning Thread:
Archive through November 28, 2001
Kep421 | Monday, November 26, 2001 - 09:21 am   LOL Fruit!!! |
Wink | Monday, November 26, 2001 - 09:40 am   Between Fruitbat and Grooch my knickers are in a knot and I am very confused. Kep thanks for translating. |
Grooch | Monday, November 26, 2001 - 10:05 am   Yes, Kep. I did mean to type Silas. My mouth was off and running before I turned on my brain. So I guess that means no one should listen to any of my theories. (P.S. I understand your brain meanderings. I don't think that is a good thing for you. ) |
Kep421 | Monday, November 26, 2001 - 10:10 am   Apparently not, Grooch!!! |
Wink | Monday, November 26, 2001 - 10:19 am   Grooch between you me and the lampost, I actually did understand what you were saying but it scared me so much I felt the need to go into denial mode. Now Fruit on the other hand...... |
Fruitbat | Monday, November 26, 2001 - 10:23 am   No just wait a minute here. Nice try Grooch but I'm not buyin' it. Ok enough of this already. I will have to go work if I cannot get a decent conversation about strategy going on here. Who are you voting for and why? I gave you my VERY sound logic above and have yet to receive any praise for my profound deduction, logic and intuition. |
Grooch | Monday, November 26, 2001 - 10:25 am   Your answer was to long.  |
Grooch | Monday, November 26, 2001 - 10:27 am   Ans I'm still thinking about it. If Lex doesn't win the IC, I think he will go. He is the biggest threat. And I think Kelly and Theresa know it. |
Fruitbat | Monday, November 26, 2001 - 10:40 am   OK, short version for the impaired. We are being led to believe Lex is a gonner this week by the editing. So I say he must win IC. They pulled that last week with Theresa. They would not tip their hand like that. Lex IC Either Tom or Frank gone depending on the formation of this new alliance. |
Wink | Monday, November 26, 2001 - 10:41 am   Fruit I think Theresa could be a power broker here if they aren't overly concerned about her winning another IC. I think Theresa, Frank and Mamakim may be able to pull in Kelly and young Kim as long as there is no agreement to vote against Ethan. I think Mama and Kelly and Frank probably all prefer Ethan over Lex. Grooch is right. If Lex doesn't win IC, depending on how vocal he was in front of the rest of them and not just the camera, I think he is toast. |
Wink | Monday, November 26, 2001 - 10:44 am   Okay Fruit if Lex wins IC I think unfortunately Frank is the casualty. But I think I'll root for Frank to win IC. Then what? |
Fruitbat | Monday, November 26, 2001 - 10:52 am   I agree Wink. We are saying the exact same thing. Lex is definately gone if he does not win IC. No question there. But since it is so clear my hunch is that he may win IC. The editing is leading us to believe he will be out. The only thing we have to go on is what they choose to show us. I am suspicious of being led. I am guessing they would vote Tom out over Ethan if Lex wins. Should the old Boran stay together then I think Frank will be the target. |
Grooch | Monday, November 26, 2001 - 11:28 am   Did they show any previews as to what the next IC is? |
Suvfanlisa | Monday, November 26, 2001 - 11:49 am   Hey guys-- don't you think that EMB knows how we think by now??? He may want us to think one way, and then doubt that thinking. In other words, he wants us to think that Lex is gone, but we doubt that as being too obvious, when really that is what happens?? Just another way to look at it. What will he think of next?? |
Fruitbat | Monday, November 26, 2001 - 11:56 am   No, I think MB just wants to have the show be as unpredictable as possible and tries to lead us to believe something may happen and omit clips that telegraph the obvious. There are really only 2 ways it can go right now. IC, of course remains the constant wild card. He can only do so much. |
Car54 | Monday, November 26, 2001 - 06:30 pm   If Frank does not shape up and bond with the old Boran Men, AND if Teresa is able to tell Lex about the vote and use her excellent people skills, then I think they will target Frank. I like the guy, and really understand him, but he is making them uncomfortable... and right now Brandon is flying very low, fitting in with the younger players. Frank is being pretty odd- and they can't see what we see, where he sort of explained how isolated he felt. The smartest thing he could do is work his butt off on anything that needs doing, be more sociable, open up to E/T/or Lex, don't boss anyone around. If they take a liking to him they might go ahead and out Brandon. I think if Teresa plays her cards right with Lex, he will get over it. Brandon is kind of lazy, and I suspect T&L don't like him much. If they keep Teresa and boot EITHER B or F, Teresa doesn't have to do anything but wait. It could go 1 or 2 more TC's before she needs KimJ and or Kelly to join her and Kimp. The two Boran women can sit and play along for a while yet- and let the big 3 think they can count on them. All this is without taking into account the IC. The only person who would be helped this week in winning is Frank. I don't know if he can pull himself together, and if he is still acting isolated, only he can help himself. L/T/E are only 3. If they don't annex Frank, the others could combine a couple of different ways and cut them off. |
Fruitbat | Tuesday, November 27, 2001 - 03:45 am   It is true that there is still time. Theresa is their biggest threat. She is a power that could get a counter alliance going and an IC threat. I hate to think of her going this week but it could happen. Either she or Frank would be a pretty safe bet. Another alliance forming is a big step and Kelly and Kim still feel safe so no reason just yet. KimJ and Kelly may be influencial in getting Boran to vote for Frank rather than T, knowing they may need to align with her later. |
Llkoolaid | Tuesday, November 27, 2001 - 07:41 pm   I already voted, I can't figure it out so I just answered each question on the first thought that came into my head. I voted Ethan to win immunity, Young Kim to stay and Tom to go. I may change them if I can think of a reason to but haven't come up with anything yet. |
Donut | Tuesday, November 27, 2001 - 11:03 pm   well, this is good!, we finally have some enthusiastic plotting an planning going!(although this being a nonvoting week sure seems like an odd time to finally get this thread all fired up- i am not even sure if we vote this week or not!) I just read susans tv guide article for next week, and she says that the split proved very powerful for Boran.So far all they got off from Snoburu was Silas, so it seems that another of them would have to go this week ,to merit calling it 'powerful' I did really well in my vote on the week i went with susans and alicias articles. She thinks tom, lex and ethan will be in the top 4, and that Boran will pick off Snoburu. I agree with FB, that Lex cant go due to the promo making it sound too obvious. He could get the IC Also, why doesnt anyone think Brandon is a goner. I still think Boran will stick together and I think they like Teresa and she wants Frank and i think they all could continue sweeping out the brats and Brandon is the next in line. Housecleaning has gotten rid of Silas, Lindsay and CLarence and they were all brats in their own way so Brandon would fit right in with the progression. but what do i know, being that i got negative points this week! By the way, i mentioned this in the Vote thread, but i think punishment for all you other voters who brought us down with minus points, is that you have to write a survivor song parody in that thread. I already payed my penance there Given the comment on long messages, no one will probably read this one, but Fruit, i loved your long message- that is what this thread is here for! to make us all dizzy! |
Corabell | Wednesday, November 28, 2001 - 06:43 am   Could it be possible that Teresa would share a bed with Carl if she went next? Say if the safari for the others was delayed by a day or so for some reason. This could explain why there wasn't enough beds in the first place. Another thing that's been bothering me for weeks is the Ethan/Kim J. relationship. A lot of people seem to think they have an alliance or something. I disagree. I think Ethan (and maybe Lex and Tom) cannot stand her. They were willing to vote her off, although I'm sure they preferred not to (for Boran's sake only). She has been the sole reason for her team losing several of the challenges. This also seems to go along with some of Clarence's interviews. What do you all think? |
Car54 | Wednesday, November 28, 2001 - 07:33 am   In the book Mark Burnett wrote he says that the early boots are kept separate from the Jury, but maybe that has changed for Africa, so she would be separated from Carl, HOWEVER, I have read a rumor out there that she becomes ill and leaves- don't know how that would work- if she was off the jury, would Clarence get her spot? He did go on safari with Diane and friends according to his interviews. I think KimJ and Kelly are together, Lex and Tom are together, and Ethan is the pivot in those two, two person alliances. Ethan had to bond with Kimj when his "boys" were gone to Samburu- she was all he had left- since he didn't like Clarence, but the guys will use Ke&Kj to keep the majority, then they will be the first Borans to go- at best final 4th and 5th. Clarence had very strong opinion about Kimj- and she really did nothing we know of to him. I was wondering if, since she orchestrated throwing the IC and booting Silas (He and Silas seemed to like each other) that caused the problem, or is there something underhanded yet to come from her? |
Fruitbat | Wednesday, November 28, 2001 - 07:45 am   Thanks Donut, you are probably the only one that read it. It is loaded with sound logic and dazzling insight, if I do say so myself. Corabell, I agree that Ethan and KimJ are not tight. Tom, Lex and Ethan are the sound alliance on that team. According to an article quoted earlier in this thread, none on the players left the site until the show concluded. MB wanted this to ensure secrecy. So the safari took place later. Brandon is no threat to win IC or jury votes and that is what it is about now. I assume he is safe for awhile. I think there is a huge possibility that Boran will stick together and pick off Samburu. It is the sure bet. I am cautiously hoping for an upset but since the show and previews are promoting that possibility it does not look good. |
Grooch | Wednesday, November 28, 2001 - 09:29 am   This is what I am thinking. Try and bear with me. The remaining players are broken out like this:
BORAN | SAMBURA | KimJ | Theresa | Kelly | Frank | Ethan | Brandon | Tom | KimP | Lex | The Borans are obviously in control of the game. 1. We know that Tom and Lex are in an alliance. 2. I believe that Kelly and KimJ see that once Sambura is picked off, they will most likely be ousted next if they don't do anything to change that. Thus they are an alliance. 3. I see KimJ and Kelly as a voting block, just like Krista and Monica were in BB2. If the guys are smart, they will realize they need to break them up. 4. Ethan is floating in the middle, playing both sides. 5. Kelly & KimJ are smart and realize they need to do something if they want a chance to win. They also must eliminate the biggest threats. 6.Lex is the biggest threat both by leadership and winning immunity challenges. They could get the samboras to go along with them this round, but it would cause to much trouble at this stage of the game. They must wait 1 or 2 more weeks. 7. They will have to vote with the rest of Boran this week. The biggest danger on that team for winning ICs is Frank. I am sure Kelly would rather get rid of Brandon and keep Frank, but she can sacrifice Frank. 8. The next week is when Kelly will have to make her move to get rid of either Lex or Tom. If she waits to long, it will be to late. Kelly & Kim need at least 2 Sambura to help them get rid of Lex and Tom. So I say Frank is the goner this week if he doesn't win the IC. 9. Lex may want to get rid of Theresa, but I believe Kim and Kelly will convince him otherwise to go for Frank. |
Corabell | Wednesday, November 28, 2001 - 09:51 am   I agree that the only chance Kelly and Kim J. has is to go along with L/T/E and vote two more Samburus off. When it gets to two Samburus left, that is when Kelly and Kim J. must make their move and align with the old Samburus. Two powers of two, that's the way to go into the Final 4. For that reason alone, it would be the wiser choice to keep Frank around (he's the only ex-Samburu with votes). |
Grooch | Wednesday, November 28, 2001 - 10:01 am   But Cora, they don't want to rock the boat w/Lex and Tom yet. And I have a feeling that Lex will want Frank off because he has the better chance of winning ICs. There is the possibility, Lex will want Theresa off for the same reason, shehas shown she has endurance, but I think Kelly & Kim will protect her. Just a feeling. |
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