Archive through December 10, 2001

The ClubHouse: Archives: TVCH Alliance #2 Plotting & Planning Thread: Archive through December 10, 2001

Fruitbat

Friday, December 07, 2001 - 04:25 am Click here to edit this post
OK next week....

Does Brandon go back so they can get Lex off? That is the big question.

KimJ is very safe for now so I see her solidly with Boran.

The top three boys will continue to stick together, no reason not to. I do not see Tom making a move against Lex for now anyway.

Does Lex learn that T voted for him? She may be gone if Brandon stays with Boran.

It all rests with Brandon.

Wink

Friday, December 07, 2001 - 09:25 am Click here to edit this post
Brandon's move will only turn out to be smart if Lex doesn't win IC. It appears KimP, Kelly and Theresa were all on the same page and I think Brandon's chances with those three plus Frank would have been a lot better with Lex OUT of the picture and unable to exert the control he appears to have over KimJ, Tom and Ethan.

Kelly and Lex are both very strong personalities but I think Brandon took a very big if not fatal chance by choosing Kelly over Lex.

Lex had a major meltdown over having 2 votes against him. Now he has 6. He will be extremely motivated now to win ICs.

Twiggyish

Friday, December 07, 2001 - 09:35 am Click here to edit this post
Good points here. This next week might be Teresa's time to go. On the other hand, there might be some grudges against Lex and that could be a problem next week for him.
Brandon will do what best serves him. I will have to read more to decide.

Awareinva

Friday, December 07, 2001 - 10:23 am Click here to edit this post
I think Brandon totally planned the whole thing and will go back to Samburu next week. Either he can explain or they were all in on it from the start- I think the KimP preview is a big redherring. You know MarkB. When Brandon got approached by Lex, he saw an opportunity and probably had a big part in convincing Lex that Kelly was the one who voted for him.

This way the Samburu can vote Lex out this week (he has most votes) and the four of them are solely in control - no Boran add on to worry about later. If Brandon had voted Lex this week, then he would be worrying that Kelly could take his place with his old tribemates (she probably got along better with Teresa and maybe even KimP than Brandon). If there's no Kelly, KimP knows Brandon is her only hope to get past final 4.

The Samburu have to take Brandon back to avoid a Pagonging, and the four of them will get rid of Ethan asap (as soon as he doesn't win immunity he's probably gone after this week :( - I'll be pulling for him to get those IC ), Tom (sorry buddy, but I don't think you got in in ya to win that many IC- but ya did great last night) and KimJ doesn't seem to do well at challenges so the four of the Samburu should be able to beat the odds and one of them win IC making the four Samburu be in the final four.


I think it is definitely Lex to go this week. Frank will be trying real hard for Immunity to keep his votes down in case he goes to final 4. Brandon is taking a risk at piling up votes if he switches back, but he didn't have much choice if he wanted to get past 5th.

Ought to be really interesting to see what happens now, but I think last week was the surprise that Jeff P alluded to, on it not going as it had in the past. Now I think the Pagonging will proceed to final 4.

Britchick

Friday, December 07, 2001 - 11:05 am Click here to edit this post
I love the verb "pagonging". To pagong, I pagong, we pagong, they were pagonging....
I'm am so incredibly bad at this deadpool voting thing. I have no idea what to think for next week. I need to just follow the people who seem to know what they're doing...

Fruitbat

Friday, December 07, 2001 - 11:16 am Click here to edit this post
Aware, if Brandon had planned this he would have informed his alliance. And it makes no sense. They could have voted Lex out, a much better choice than Kelly. He got star struck that the big guy wanted him.

Grooch

Friday, December 07, 2001 - 11:21 am Click here to edit this post
Good one Bat!

Moondance

Friday, December 07, 2001 - 11:50 am Click here to edit this post
YES MsBat!!!!!!

Fruitbat

Friday, December 07, 2001 - 12:10 pm Click here to edit this post
It will be interesting to see how Theresa handles the situation. They need Brandon back no matter how furious they may be. Will she be able to talk sense into Brandon and calm KimP?

Or will Brandon do Lex's bidding. I am leaning toward this one.

And where is Frank in all this? Lex offered Brandon #5 spot. That leaves Frank out of the Boran clique. Does Frank even know Brandon was offered the slot Frank thinks he has?

Fruitbat

Friday, December 07, 2001 - 12:11 pm Click here to edit this post
I don't think this will happen but I would love to see either Tom or KimJ join the T alliance leaving Brandon with the doomed.

Fruitbat

Friday, December 07, 2001 - 12:49 pm Click here to edit this post
~bump~

I will just sit here and talk to myself.

Ethan, Tom, Lex and KimJ will vote as a block. They have no reason not to. They are secure for now.

Frank, T, and Kim will vote together, most likely.

Looks like Brandon is the swing here.

So Lex or T gone depending on IC?

Britchick

Friday, December 07, 2001 - 01:37 pm Click here to edit this post
Fruitbat, I agree with you though I think there's maybe a stronger possibility of Brandon trying to return to his Samburu people and get Lex voted off. Hard to know right now though.
Also, T will only be a target if Lex definitely finds out the truth. Do we know that he does find out it was her?

Fruitbat

Friday, December 07, 2001 - 02:17 pm Click here to edit this post
Hopefully Britchick.

Car54

Friday, December 07, 2001 - 02:22 pm Click here to edit this post
Fruitbat, I just posted a partial summary in a Kelly's chat thread- it answers some of the questions you raised.

Fruitbat

Friday, December 07, 2001 - 03:24 pm Click here to edit this post
Thanks Car. :)

Fruitbat

Saturday, December 08, 2001 - 05:04 am Click here to edit this post
Some things to consider....

Lex is being featured in the promos as in danger. We can assume he stays this week.

KimJ and Frank are getting no airtime. That happened with T just before she became central in the drama.

Both Kelly and Clarence have said KimJ will do anthing to win. We have not seen this yet so it is coming soon. She has thus far adhered to her alliance with Lex, Tom, and Ethan. Yes she crossed Kelly but that was the alliance choice.

Fruitbat

Saturday, December 08, 2001 - 05:52 am Click here to edit this post
Process of elimination on who goes:

Not a likely candidate based on promos and editing:
KimJ, Ethan, Tom, KimP, Frank, Lex (too much hype)

Could be:
Brandon or Theresa

Indications are that Theresa goes far.

I think Boran may smell a rat in Brandon, SAM is angry with him.......I am leaning toward Brandon going.

Possible KimJ may team with Theresa, Frank, and Kim leaving a 4 to 4 split. Lex would go if did not win IC.

Lex IC
Brandon gone

Car54

Saturday, December 08, 2001 - 06:23 am Click here to edit this post
Fruitbat, I had insomnia last night, so did a lot of reading.... you may be right... but I think we are in for a roller coaster ride next week.

Some things that could impact the outcome:
From the insider transcript I read, it looks like Brandon's intention was to pretend to stay Boran for 3 days...to paste the Boran's 4 votes on Frank, then try to go back to the Sams and boot Lex.
It appears to me that probably won't fly- the preview shows Lex expressing suspicion and regret for accepting Brandon. He may target Brandon instead.
IF Brandon realizes this and is able to get back with the Sams (their only other choices are to try to annex Tom or Kimj- who have been loyal followers so far) if they cannot do that they kind of have to take Brandon back or lose their edge.
If neither team wants Brandon, and Lex wins IC
(not a sure thing- Ethan has been winning)
F/T/Kp- vs L/E/T/Kj They are giving the majority back to Boran without a fight.

Brandon is their tie vote. If they can't accept him back and want him out, they have to get someone from Boran to come over long term.

If the Sams target Brandon without a sure Boran member vote, yes, they could oust him with a vote of 8-1, but they are commiting suicide in the game.

They MUST woo somebody- Kimj told Kelly she dislikes how 3 players are playing- Kelly, I assume Lex, and I have to guess the third is Brandon.
If the Sams promise her to boot Brandon, then Lex she might defect, but would she leave Ethan?

And what about Tom's comment about Lex becoming shaky on them- is he vulnerable?

I think the clue about the tribe member crying has to do with Lex winning IC, he can't be voted out, and they have to pick someone else- a hard decision.

Weinermr

Saturday, December 08, 2001 - 06:59 am Click here to edit this post
Remember too this week - "A Betrayal"

Kim P betraying Brandon?

Teresa betraying Frank?

Tom and Ethan betraying Lex?

Car54

Saturday, December 08, 2001 - 07:02 am Click here to edit this post
Probably all of the above.

Fruitbat

Saturday, December 08, 2001 - 08:05 am Click here to edit this post
Or KimJ betraying the 3 men.

I don't think T would betray Frank. They shook hands early on and I think they will both honor that.

I believe that it is Brandon crying. It could be him feeling very badly that he betrayed KimP though I remember the quote implying that it is over who must be voted out. Ahhhhhh that could be himself.

*****Slightly off topic...With all the contestants clammoring to be on this show, why would they pick 2 people with the same name? Are they both so compelling that they could not possibly go without one?*****

Fruitbat

Monday, December 10, 2001 - 04:31 am Click here to edit this post
KimJ has the reputation of doing anything to win. We have seen nothing of this yet. I think it is likely that she defects and votes with SAM this week. Too early for her to go unless voting against Kelly was the act that got her that reputation. Does not seem likely.

Frank gone? Could happen if Brandon stays with Boran. Brandon hates Frank and Frank is a SAM.

Lex wins IC and Brandon goes? This could happen. Clearly he cannot be trusted by either side.

Looks like Frank and Brandon are the top 2 choices for me right now.

I am not ruling Lex out though. That would be a shocker as most seem to be convinced that he stays longer.

Car54

Monday, December 10, 2001 - 04:47 am Click here to edit this post
This week is a tough one, again we know a lot, but not enough!
I am voting unspoiled so have to decide today-
Strategically (if these people are thinking) it is one of these: Lex, Tom, or Frank.

The plan was for Brandon to pretend to stay with the Borans this week, somehow get back with the Samburus at the last minute, and vote Lex out in a tie of 4-4 his 6 priors take him out.

HOWEVER the preview shows Lex regretting bringing Brandon on board...so B may not get a chance to pull his plan off. (He could still go back to Samburu, but the Boran votes would be pasted on HIM, not Frank (the only Sam with priors).

If the Samburus can't steal KimJ, they kind of have to take Brandon back- and really they have to see he ultimately did the right thing- got a Boran booted without incurring ANY Samburu votes- he just did it in a very sneaky scary way. If they want to take control, he is important to them.

Plus there is the big immunity spoiler out there-
that Lex wins immunity. He may have super strength in his current psychotic state, and be able to beat out Ethan for IC.

I know this is wierd, but I think it might be Tom.
In a tie vote, if Lex is out, Tom is the target with 3 priors, plus in the insider, it shows him getting sicker, he has had lots of face time.

If he went against Frank, F only has 1 vote, T has 3.

Lets see lots of discussion today....I am really torn about this. I have til 7 pm et to vote.
Talk me out of this. It can be done...try me!

Fruitbat

Monday, December 10, 2001 - 05:10 am Click here to edit this post
Ahhhh Car54, my morning plotting buddy. :)

You bring up a good point. If Brandon is back with SAM, and Lex wins immunity, who would they choose? It would have to be Tom to break the tie.

I have not seen any spoilers about Lex winning IC but it makes sense. He will be more determined than the others. <is it is the picture with the neclace on his torch?>

If Brandon returns or KimJ defects:
Tom, if Lex wins IC, or Lex

IF Brandon stays:
Frank

There will be scurring around after the IC has been won. They all like Tom so if Lex wins IC things could be different. Brandon could choose to stay and vote Frank off.

Micknrc

Monday, December 10, 2001 - 08:13 am Click here to edit this post
Car and Fruitbat...

My thoughts exactly--it all depends on IC.
I'm trying not to put too much stock on the lex's skull/torch/necklace thing...EPMB has been proven to digitally alter stuff when the editing mood suits him.

I just get this weird feeling from the insider transcripts with Brandon's rabid dislike of Frank ( I wish I could see them )
To us it's a no-brainer...Brandon rejoins Sams, votes out Lex (or Tom if Lex wins IC) and let the pagonging begin.

BUT...as we keep hearing from past and present Survivors, this game can get very emotional--will LilKim be so p****d-off at Brandon that she doesn't see what Samburu needs to do to stay in the game? Will Brandon's intense anti-frank sentiments lead him to stick with Boran if he can get them to agree on a Frank boot? I think this may tie in with the tribemember who is crying over a decision (Brandon).

As much as I've been rooting for Lex, there's no doubt that last week's move makes him the village idiot in terms of the "pagonging" strategy. Boran had it sewn up.
Having said that, I'm really glad it happened because A)Kelly was like nails on a chalkboard to me (as I know Lex is to many of you) and she was planning to get rid of Lex at the earliest opportunity--they just didn't like each other--so even though she didn't cast THE vote--Lex's basic sense of her was correct(playing all sides). I'm not sorry to see her gone.
and B)How much more interesting has this game become? And I'd rather watch Lex go all "Heart of Darkness" paranoid (possibly bringing about his own demise? "the horror!the horror!" ya gotta love a modern morality play!) than the personality challenged Kims, sweet as sugar southern belle types that seem to have become a realityTV staple, or other even less interesting candidates....Lex is giving us grist for our discussion mill. Okay, maybe now I have to hide for 3-4 days after these last couple of episodes, but it's worth it.

Lex did us all a favor...no pagonging yet! (Although it sure makes the deadpool picks a lot tougher...lol)

I just want to commend Car for her level-headed analysis of both game and players as well as her tireless info-gathering skills. I agree that people are not necessarily who they seem to be on this bizarre TV ordeal(okay, except for Jerri). As I keep trying to remind myself, it's all in the editing.