Maybe It Will Just Be a Matter of Luck Who Wins?
TV ClubHouse: Archive: American Idol (FOX):
Maybe It Will Just Be a Matter of Luck Who Wins?
Jimmer | Wednesday, May 14, 2003 - 07:01 am     I was pretty disgusted when I first heard Paula’s comment that it will be a matter of luck who wins. But then I started to think about how the voting process is designed. Basically, you have a choice of three numbers to dial and you dial the person’s number that you want to vote for. I can see how this would work for the earlier rounds, but now we’re down to a huge number of viewers that are voting for three very popular people. I keep hearing comments about how the lines are busy and people have to try over and over again to get through. So if all three numbers are maxed out, then won’t the results be about 33% for each performer? For example, it won’t matter if twice as many people are trying to dial Clay’s number instead of Kim’s. If both numbers are maxed out, then they’ll end up with very close to the same number of votes. So maybe Paula is right and it will be a matter of luck who wins? Or have I misunderstood how this works? What do you think? |
Hobbs | Wednesday, May 14, 2003 - 07:09 am     Makes all the sense in the world to me, Jimmer. I think a full TVCH investigation is in order. |
Jeep | Wednesday, May 14, 2003 - 07:18 am     Yeah I was thinking the same thing last night while trying to vote. My first thought was "darn! what if Clay has only one line and Ruben or Kim have two!" |
Iscreamer1 | Wednesday, May 14, 2003 - 07:35 am     Was Kims line maxed out? I felt she deserved a vote because in my eyes she has passed Ruben and I wanted to help her get in. I was able to get through to her line right away but I couldn't get through to Clay at all and this was close to 10:00PM |
Max | Wednesday, May 14, 2003 - 08:47 am     Don't forget about text voting. I voted 50 times via my AT&T wireless account last night - all for Kim, btw. |
Serate | Wednesday, May 14, 2003 - 04:22 pm     " Was Kims line maxed out?" Not sure. I called from home phone and cell phone. My cell phone number is from the same state but 2 hours east and a different area code. The first hour I got maybe 10 calls in for Kim on home phone and 20 on Cell phone [not counting the 10 minutes I called before the voting was actually to start - got tons of calls in then on both phones]. 2nd hour I got 15 from cell phone and around 50 from the home phone. |
Jimmer | Wednesday, May 14, 2003 - 09:37 pm     If what Ryan said was true, and it did turn out as expected to be a very close three way vote, this again may indicate that the lines were very heavily overloaded. If that happens again next week, we will see a very close 50/50 split, which statistically may allow AI to pick the winner they want (not good for Clay IMO). |
Hobbs | Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 06:05 am     I don't know if anyone else has done the math, but here's what I come up with. If there were 19 million votes and the margin between 1st and 3rd was 4% and the margin between 1st and 2nd was 2%: 1st: 6,460,000 2nd: 6,333,000 3rd: 6,202,000 I've rounded these numbers out. Your only talking 130,000 votes between each. I have never heard anyone say that their text message votes don't get through. That might be the way to put the winner over the top. So go out and buy those cell phones with the free text message plans this weekend. Thank goodness AI isn't in Florida. We could wait 3 months for a winner!! |
Brenda1966 | Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 09:49 am     Hobbs, I figured the numbers slightly different: 1st got 36% 6,840,000 2nd got 34% 6,460,000 3rd got 30% 5,700,000 with 2% diff btw 1st and 2nd and a 4% diff btw 2nd and 3rd. Either way I think it shows just how much of a dead heat this race is. Three talented people splitting the votes 3 ways. The idea that the phone lines will be jammed and the votes could be quite equal is worrisome. |
Crazydog | Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 09:56 am     I'm not sure if Ryan said the difference between 2nd and 3rd was 4% or the difference between all the competitors (meaning 1st and 3rd) was 4%. In any event, I am certain he said that 2% separated Clay and Ruben. Can't remember right now, but last year did they do the final elimination the same way? Where they don't indicate who was in the bottom two (and thus indicating who was leading)? I know they said Kelly had a huge lead throughout the competition. I assumed Kelly was the leader because she was the only one who had never been in the bottom. I think it's clear that this year it is very very close. |
Marebear | Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 10:05 am     I remember voting last year. I voted for Kelly and only voted the last 3 times. The earlier nights were always very busy for Kelly and I didn't get many votes in, but I remember the final night I was able to get through a lot of times. I was thinking that maybe they opened up extra lines for that night. I'm hoping that happens again this year. I don't think it's fair that we have all those busy signals - we call and it should count. |
Tess | Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 10:15 am     He said the difference between 1st and 3rd was 4% and the difference between Ruben and Clay was LESS than 2%. How much less is anyone's guess. I have a question about test messaging. I get 200 messages per month free but my impression was that you can only go that route if you cell phone service is through AT&T. Is that correct? My cell is through Verizon Wireless. I could get in a lot more votes if I could text message. After hitting redial nearly non-stop for 2 solid hours I would guess I got through fewer than 50 votes for Clay on Tuesday night. |
Essence | Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 10:31 am     Tess, I'm pretty sure it has to be AT&T wireless. |
Tess | Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 12:30 pm     Well dang! |
Pantageas | Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 05:50 pm     Ryan said that there was a 1st-to-3rd difference of 4 percent, and a less that 2% difference from 1st-to-2nd. I assumed numbers like: 1st: 35% 2nd: 34% 3rd: 31% That way there's a 4% difference between 1 and 3. Like Tess said, there's no way of telling what the actual difference was between 1 and 2. Either way. It'll be interesting to see who gets the support of Kim's fans... P.S. - Tess, 50 votes? Sheesh! |
Idolworship | Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 06:53 pm     I, also, got in 50 easy votes for Kim. The lines were almost never busy. I only got in about 15, for Clay, as the lines were almost always busy. 'Didn't try Ruben's. Like I've said, before, I believe that luck isn't involved, here. I think that it's a very carefully orchestrated plan, to motivate people to vote for Ruben. Simon got on tv, and said that Clay would win, but Ruben should win. He was motivating Ruben's fans, to vote more heavily. Ruben did not have a good performance, on Tuesday, but received no criticism. Clay simply forgot the words, and didn't fall apart. He quietly waited for the right notes, to begin again. Even Simon's dear Tamyra left out part of the words, to "Over the Rainbow," but no one noticed. Yep, all of the party balloons are pre-printed, with Ruben's name. |
Tess | Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 08:04 pm     Pantageas, I'm not sure what you mean by "Sheesh" but least I tried my hardest for the 2 hours we are given. I figure that close to 50 votes is better than if I hadn't bothered. They came in little clusters of 2 or 3 and then many minutes before more would go through. |
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