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Ocean_islands
Member
09-07-2000
| Thursday, February 12, 2004 - 8:15 pm
Marriage: Addition or division? A new model for predicting divorce may help prevent split-ups By Danna Harman | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor Valentine's Day is Saturday, and we are all thinking about true love and heart-shaped chocolate candy. Well, maybe not all of us. Some of us, actually, are considering the quantifiable aspects of divorce. In America today, some 50 percent of marriages are predicted to end in divorce. And at the University of Washington in Seattle they say they can tell you exactly - well, almost exactly - which ones those will be. A psychologist, a mathematician, and a pathologist have devised what they call a proven mathematical formula for detecting which relationships will go sour - thereby holding out hope that such couples can overcome their problems, and avoid divorce. "We have been able to predict that divorce will happen before [it does]. That's old news," says John Gottman, emeritus professor of psychology. "But what we have now is a scientific model for understanding why we can predict it with such accuracy." The work marks the first time a mathematic model is being used to understand such deep personal human interactions, adds James D. Murray, emeritus professor of applied mathematics. "It is totally objective. And our prediction of which couples would divorce within a four-year period was 94 percent accurate." This is how it works: Couples face each other and discuss - each speaking in turn - a subject over which they have disagreed more than once in the past. They are wired to detect various physiological data, such as pulse rates, and they're also videotaped. A session lasts a mere 15 minutes. The research team watches and analyzes the tapes and data, awarding plus or minus points depending on the type of interactions and according to a standard scoring system. Everything is then translated into equations and plotted on a graph, which the researchers have dubbed the "Dow-Jones Industrial Average for marital conversation." Once this is done, different situations are simulated and analyzed from the equations and graphs, and predictions are made. Over the past 16 years more than 700 couples (at different stages of their marriages) took part in the research. But let's go back a moment. It all starts, say, with a chat about mothers-in-law - apparently one of the hot topics of contention among couples, along with money and sex, according to Dr. Murray. "The husband might say to his wife, 'Your mother really is a pain in the neck.' Well, that's a minus two points. A shrug, that's a no-no - so minus one. And rolled eyes - very negative; that's minus two." If however, the husband were to say, "Your mother is a pain in the neck ... but she is sometimes funny," then, according to the researchers, you would take away two points and then give one back. If the husband cracked a smile, he would get another point. At the end of all the additions and subtractions, a stable marriage is indicated by having five more positive points than negative ones. Otherwise, warns the team, the marriage is in trouble. In trouble - but not doomed. The whole point of the model, says Dr. Gottman, is that it gives therapists new understanding with which they can help couples overcome patterns of interaction and prevent divorce. "What we are suggesting," says Murray, "is that couples who take this experiment then be told the prediction and realize they are going to have to both change their behavior and repair what is wrong." Not everyone buys into this model. Bonnie Jacobson, a clinical psychologist and adjunct professor at New York University, says it is "absolutely impossible" to understand the workings of a relationship via a one-size-fits-all model. "For mostly every couple I have seen, it's hard to see how they got together in the first place," she says. "So unless you really get to know the nuanced dynamics, you will never 'get it' or be able to help." Christine Fasano was married for only 14 months before getting a divorce last year. She agrees the dynamics of a relationship are nuanced and complex - but also sees merit in the University of Washington study's basic assumption that if one looks starkly at interaction between a couple, it is possible to ascertain whether the relationship is headed toward demise. "I'm not surprised the model works," she says. "It's actually not that profound. My basic observation of couples that are happily married is that they treat each other well. That is basically what they are saying, and that is hard to argue with." So, any final advice for Valentine's Day from the divorce research team out in Washington? "I would never give advice on matters of the heart," says Murray the mathematician, who, incidentally, has been married 45 years. "But I suppose the bottom line is, yes, communication. And being good to one another. That is nice to quantify." http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0213/p11s01-lifp.htm
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Twiggyish
Member
08-14-2000
| Thursday, February 12, 2004 - 8:51 pm
Must everything be scientific? I think the money funded for this study could have been better used elsewhere. What a bunch of hooey. Anyone could have told the scientists that communication is important in any relationship. These couples are observed for 15 minutes and a rating is made based on their behavior in a controlled environment? Why not follow that couple over a period time? Why not see how they react when real life happens outside of the lab?
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Spygirl
Member
04-23-2001
| Thursday, February 12, 2004 - 10:57 pm
Ummm...wow. Gottman's work is the topic of what I'm currently teaching in my class. If you want to know anything about his results and his research, I can tell you. The person who summarized his work did the reader and Gottman a HUGE HUGE HUGE disservice. Communication in the sense that we think it, is NOT the crux of his work nor his findings. Trust me, it is anything BUT hooey.
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Meridian
Member
09-23-2000
| Friday, February 13, 2004 - 9:59 am
How many points do the researchers take off if he belts her across the mouth during the 15 min. or if she opens a magazine in order to tune him out while he speaks? Do they also subtract points for answering a cell phone? Do they give the points back if you say, "Look, I'm rather occupied presently. Let me call you back later"? Seriously, what kind of research is this? Like Twiggy, I find this study to be a complete waste of time. How will this information be used? Common sense does dictate that communication is a critical factor in relationships. No one goes into a marriage thinking it will fail. There is always that element of hope (on either side) that stressful situations will be solved. I don't believe a reliable predictor can be established to determine relationship success. If the results of this study are intended to be used to grant marriage licenses or divorve petitions, I sincerely worry for future generations. This obsessive need to pigeonhole potential scares me to death. From standardized testing for schoolchildren to the current study on relationships, what could be next? Genetic testing for life success? Predicted losers are terminated?
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Zules
Member
08-21-2000
| Friday, February 13, 2004 - 10:15 am
Spy, with a 94% success rate, I figure there's got to be more to it. Please share whatever you think is valueable info, I'd like to hear more. Thanks!
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Spygirl
Member
04-23-2001
| Friday, February 13, 2004 - 10:56 am
Meridian, Twiggy, I'm afraid that the summary above is a gross bastardization of the very serious and important work Gottman and his colleagues have been doing for the last 20+ years. I will try to write up something this weekend that better summarizes what they have found and how. The implications are amazing and, fortunately or unfortunately, exactly right on. I see marriages in the crux of absolute chaos and crisis, and can easily identify the presence of the factors that the couples Gottman studied who eventually divorce demonstrated (I'll explain his methodology). Let me get through today of meetings with students who want feedback on the papers I gave back last night and then I'll offer some information that is accurate and much more interesting than what is offered in that pathetically sensationalized and inaacurate summary above.
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Twiggyish
Member
08-14-2000
| Friday, February 13, 2004 - 7:36 pm
I cannot imagine a 15 minute observation of a couple in a controlled environment can give an accurate indicator of the success of their marriage. Sorry. His 94% success rate in what? How many couples is that rate based upon? What were the variables? I'll be curious to see what other work he has done.
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