The Pros and Cons of evicting Erika...
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Spunky

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 11:49 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I guess no one played the "respect" card with Ali. I thought either Robert or Erika would have told Ali that if she takes Erika (the most liked one) to the finals she'll get the respect of the Jury and may give her the big prize, especially if she wins HOH.
It was the same story Robert kept telling Erika (and Jun) to keep Jun instead of Ali to win the respect of the Jury, since everyone would have won against Ali.
By kicking out Erika the Jury will not see it as an unselfish move and may react as with Danielle last year.
I know, I know...this game is all about self-serving interests... but sometimes an unusual move may do wonders for one hated finalist...

Cousin_Jake

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 11:57 am EditMoveDeleteIP
- Ali is still under the illusion that Erica will vote for Ali in the finals even though she's going to boot Erica on Wednesday .... that girl is crazy. Just a few minutes ago when Jun came outside she reported to Ali what Erica had said when they were alone in the kitchen and Ali asked Jun if Erica had said anything about who she would vote for once she's out ... doah!

Gvandeli

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 12:05 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
If Ali boots Erika, she has a 1 in 3 chance of going to the finals (I think Jun's chance of winning HOH is low). If she boots Jun, Ali has a 2 in 3 chance of going to the finals (much more likely that Erika could win HOH). There is no agreement between Erika and Robert to take each other to F2 from Erika. 1:3 vs. 2:3....hmmm..which would you do?

Wendo

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 12:10 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Actually, Spunky, Robert did play the respect card. He said the jury would respect Ali for evicting Jun. That no one would want Jun to win. It was either yesterday or Sunday. (I'm thinking Sunday.)

Floresmama

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 12:15 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Ali knows she can't beat Erika in a vote. So of course she will boot Erika. She has at least a shot against either of the other two.

I am not sure why you think Jun is not a threat to win HOH. She has indicated that she has thrown contest before but she won't be throwing them this time.

Steveh

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 12:16 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I see no down side to Ali evicting Ericka, none.

She can't beat Ericka if they are in the final two.

Ericka and Robert have some kind of agreement, even though they've never formalized it by announcing it as an "alliance" or whatever. If Ali keeps Ericka in it, she has to know that if she doesn't when the next HOH she's definitely gone. She may still be w/ Jun, but it's not as set in stone as it is w/ Ericka.

At this point, why would Ali be worried about the repercussions of anything she's done or is going to do. She's burned more bridges than Sherman did when he incinerated Atlanta during the Civil War.

If Ali goes to the finals w/ either Robert or Jun the jury vote could--by that time--be a tossup, although I'd mark Ali as the underdog, but not as big an underdog as she would be against Ericka.

Rhett

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 12:19 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Erica has two chances of not being evicted, Slim and None.

Gvandeli

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 12:20 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Steveh-

As for the final vote, I don't think Ali can beat any of the remaining houseguests. That's not a good argument. The question is...who is she more likely to get to the F2 with...I still maintain the answer is Erika. All she has to do is get Erika's agreement to take her to the F2. She hasn't even asked.

Steveh

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 12:31 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Gvandeli -

I disagree that Ericka, under any circumstances, would take her to the final two. The only possible scenario for that happening is that the final three are Ali, Robert and Ericka and I see no way that Ericka will take Ali with her. Ericka might lie and say she will, but I just don't see it, especially after the way Ali has subtly tortured her this week.

Maybe Ericka hasn't asked (re F2) b/c Ali seems to be treating her the same way she's treating the BB house insects?

IMO, Ali CAN win a vote against Robert and/or Jun. I'm not saying that it's likely, but it is possible.

Especially if she's against Robert: Dana, Jee and Justin definitely vote for Robert, but what about the other four? As others have argued, Nathan and Jack may vote for Ali because of what they perceive as her excellent game playing skills and Ericka and Jun may vote for her b/c of Robert's serial misogyny.

With Jun it would be tougher since it would seem that Dana, Jee, Justin and Robert would definitely vote for Jun.

Gvandeli

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 12:33 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I don't think Nathan or Jack would vote for Alison after Erika spent a week in the sequester house telling them about her behavior. Besides..she only needs one of the 3 to vote for Jun to lose. Sorry, I don't think Alison can defeat any of the remaining guests.

Steveh

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 12:39 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I know you think that G and, really, I do too, but I think she has a one percent chance of beating Jun, a two percent (maybe even more) chance of beating Robert and absolutely no chance of beating Ericka and that she knows all of this.

Peepinagain

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 12:51 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I definately believe Dana, Jee, Justin & Robert voting for Jun or Erika. But I also think Jack would not vote for Ali because she wasn't loyal and definately Nathan would NOT vote for her. He's even talked about what she did to him in the jury house, he hasn't forgotten.

Rhett

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 12:56 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I don't think Ali is playing for first I think she is playing for second and her best chance for the final two is to evict Erica.

Gabbyone

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 01:00 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I agree with you Rhett. Her only chance to get to the final 2 is by evicting Erica. Robert and Erica have definitely formed an alliance. Erica blew her chance this week when she elected to go with Robert. She should have stayed by Ali's side. Now Ali doesn't trust her.

Nmbeach

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 01:02 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Ali is about the only thing on the show that has lived up to "Expect the Unexpected." It wouldn't surprise me to see her evict Jun just for the shock factor, because Jun is so sure she is staying. Ali would think that doing this would put her in higher regard with the jury. Just a thought.

Fan3

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 01:03 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Cons of evicting Erica ..... more Boring than it is now....... at least we can watch to see if she & Rob will get it on... I know yuk but would still be exciting to see moves.......another con seeing Jun in a too small bathing suit.....

Gina8642

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 01:07 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
If Alison wants to win I think it is slightly to her advantage to boot Erika. If she just wants to come in second, I think it is a toss up between the two - no true advantage either way.

If she boots Erika and makes it to final two, I think there is a decent chance she will get Erika's vote. Erika has stated this more than once. Back when when Jack and E were discussing their possible votes b/w Jun and Ali, Jack stated he'd vote for Jun - his choice was clear. Erika was clearly reluctant to agree. In recent convos she's spontaneously stated that she thought Ali played a very good game. I don't think an anti-Ali vote is a given. Erika may be trying to back peddle on that impression now, because she knows Ali is taking that into consideration between the two. Jun's vote is less clear if it was an Ali/Erika final.

If Ali only wants to make it to final two, then I think it's a toss up. Both Jun and Erika have giving hints that they may not choose Ali if they get final HOH. So, Ali cannot not depend on one more than the other. Either way, Ali really needs to win final HOH to guarentee herself a final two spot.

I think Jun will be slightly easier to beat (and only slightly) in the final HOH comp. If it is anything like last years - holding on to the key the longest doesn't win you anything, it only ensures you a spot in the final round of the HOH comp. If Jason had won the first (key holding round) last year, and Lisa the second round. The final result would have been the same, since Jason and Lisa competed in round three.

Charvie

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 01:10 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
For Alison her only chance of not losing Erika's or Juns's vote is to not use the veto and let Erika do the voting. Of course that is too much jeopardy for Alison. I don't think keeping Erika will get her more votes in the F2 or even gaurentee her to the F2. I think keeping Erika or Jun in Alison's case is about equal. No real benifits either way.

Sbw

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 01:22 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I have been thinking in a different way. Erika was part of an alliance (not a great one but still an alliance). Jun and Ali were both floaters. Instead of going up against Jun - which one has played the best floater, I would want to go against someone that played differently - Erika. If they are going to vote by game play she might have a chance against Erika, but I think Jun has made fewer enemies as a floater and thus a better floater. (But then I am probably wrong!)

Spunky

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 01:34 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Oh thanks Wendo,
I didn't know Ali was told that "Jury respect" theory.. I guess she couldn't care less...

About wanting second place only (I had a whole thread on that before) that changed right after Ali won POV. All that power has changed her mind and I'm sure believes her sweet dreams of the big win could become reality.

How clever to tell both Jun and Erika that she'll make up her mind when Julie will ask her, just so to keep them quiet and not mad at her, she needs their votes...

Spunky

Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 09:37 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I wasn't using Ali's words... but darn it, on tonight's show she said that she's thinking of the "pros" and "cons" of evicting either Erika or Jun...
I've got to put my psychic powers to rest...

Wendo

Wednesday, September 10, 2003 - 12:19 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I thought of this thread Spunky when Ali said that on the show tonight.

My thoughts on the Pros and Cons of evicting Erika:


Pros to evicting Erika:

She's strong at competitions.

She's well liked by many on the jury and could be difficult to beat.

She may choose to take Rob to the finals. And she's been a lot closer this week to him than ever before.

She may give you her vote because she is fair.


Cons to evicting Erika:

Possibility of losing her vote by betraying her, even though she says she is fair.

Angering the jury even more by evicting a well liked player.

Risking Robert's anger by kicking out his ally. (Though I doubt Ali would give a crap about this.)

Stronger bond with Jun because of the secret alliance.

If you kept her, she would maybe honor the deal of taking you to final 2. Not as sure that Jun will do the same.


Those are just some things I thought of.

Spunky

Wednesday, September 10, 2003 - 07:53 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I agree Wendo...

But I can no longer fault Ali for serving her own interests... she has a good hunch that Erika hates Jun with a passion and this means a vote for Ali, that's one of the good pros..

However, Ali should be more honest with Erika and stop giving her signals, or to Robert, that she's staying, then laughing about it with Jun.
This is what makes me sick of both Ali and Jun.

Spyder

Wednesday, September 10, 2003 - 09:55 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Excellent points, Wendo, although I am not sure I understand Con#1. Why would not voting for Ali, if she betrayed you (Erika) be a sign of unfairness? It seems to me that would be a "fair" reason for Erika to change her vote.

This year is going to be very interesting, bc (IMHO) the dynamics of the jury house change everything. There has been a trend on Survivor & BB (not last year) of rewarding "evil" players
who are perceived to have played well. But with the jury house . . .

It will be interesting!

Auntie

Wednesday, September 10, 2003 - 12:22 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
alison is thinking hard about what to do. my sister and i were discussing this today, and here is what we came up with:

#1 - the expected:

alison boots erika, wins hoh, takes jun to final Two. Votes by Jury members are...

For Jun to Win 500k
Jee
Justin
Robert
Erika
Nathan
Dana
For Ali to Win 500k
Jack

#2 Alison boots Erika, takes Robert to Final Two.

For Robert to Win 500k
Jee
Justin
Nathan
Erika
Dana
For Ali to Win 500k
Jun
Jack
Dana
#3 Alison boots Jun, takes Erika to Final Two

For Erika to Win 500k
Jack
Nathan
Robert
For Alison to Win 500k
Dana
Jun
Jee
Justin????

She's best off taking Erika, and I think she will realize that.

Wendo

Wednesday, September 10, 2003 - 12:29 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Spyder said, "Excellent points, Wendo, although I am not sure I understand Con#1. Why would not voting for Ali, if she betrayed you (Erika) be a sign of unfairness? It seems to me that would be a "fair" reason for Erika to change her vote."

Erika has told Ali that she plans to vote fair in the finals if she's on the jury. That just because someone evicted her doesn't mean she also wouldn't give them her vote to win. Alison is aware of this so having Erika on the jury is good for her; unless Erika would change her mind and not vote for the person who evicted her to win.

As far as fair, it's absolutely fair of Erika to not vote for someone if she feels betrayed. It's her vote, she can do with it as she wishes.

By using the word fair, I wasn't referring to Erika and how she votes. I'm really referring to what Ali's perceptions are. In Ali's mind, she's thinking that it's possible that Erika won't vote for her in the end if she evicts her today. Ali would perceive that as Erika maybe not voting in a fair way. (Even though it is fair, as I said above.)

Hope I'm explaining this right.

Spyder

Wednesday, September 10, 2003 - 01:52 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Thanks for the explanation Wendo and I think I get what you are saying-- however, I believe that there is a huge distinction between 1) someone evicting you and 2) someone flat-out betraying you. That is why I think Ali's biggest mistake so far in the game is digging a hole this week--by making promises to both Jun & Erika.

She may figure that her only chance of winning is to take the Will Kirby/Richard Hatch role, or she may simply be stumped on the best way to handle Jun & Erika, but I think she risks losing another vote. The most fascinating thing about the vote this season is the potential Jee/Justin/Dana/Robert block (if it happens)

I suspect that JJDR will not even consider an Ali win, although they can't stand Jun either. It just might be easier to swallow than a triumphant Ali.

Donut

Wednesday, September 10, 2003 - 02:24 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
i think she must've counted the possible votes and realized that she is unlikely to win against erika or jun, so i am hoping she things of the pros of keeping erika, which i think would be that:

she could percieve Jun as tougher to beat in HOH as she has had a winning streak lately.

she could think that to not piss off erika might gain her robert, jack and erika's vote (or whoever of them is eligible to vote) , whereas pissing off jun would barely influence anyone..no one really cares much about defending jun's honor...

the other pro, is as someone said, that she keeps up her rep as the shake things up kid and runs on that platform

Auntie

Wednesday, September 10, 2003 - 02:53 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
she just made a deal with jun - jun agrees NOT to try for hoh tonight!

Andysmojo

Wednesday, September 10, 2003 - 03:40 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Pros - no more pink boots
Cons - nothing