Tdot | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 01:47 pm     Wouldn't Ali and Jun be smart to keep Justin? They could form a Ali-Justin-Jee-Jun alliance and rid themsleves of Jack or Erika this week. If, by chance, Jack wins HOH on Wednesday (or even next week), he would nominate Justin and then they could vote him out. Voting out Robert this week buys Jee, Jun, and Ali at least another week no matter what. |
Sherri | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 01:51 pm     Tdot - couldn't they accomplish the same thing with keeping Robert? If you are thinking end of game, anyone left can win over Robert, but not Justin, at least that's how I see it as it exists now. What do you think? |
Tdot | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 02:01 pm     I'm just wondering if it's Jee-Jun-Ali-Rob, there's no guarantee Erika and Jack will go after Rob first. If they keep Justin, you can be sure Jack and Erika will continue to gun for him. |
Stro27 | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 02:10 pm     A Jus/Ali/Jun/Jee alliance is a much stronger alliance that would be more likely to stick together than one with Rob. Ali has no allegiance to Rob and Jee is closer to Justin. Plus, there’s a lot of animosity between Robert and Jun. If they decide to keep Jus around I think it would almost assure themselves of making it to the final 4 by getting rid of Jack and Erika the next 2 weeks. If they keep Rob around, it's more unpredictable. |
Tdot | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 02:27 pm     Stro: My point exactly. |
Cameltoes | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 02:28 pm     Except Jun and Jee would be in the final 4 with two extremely strong competitors against them. That's very dangerous. |
Stro27 | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 02:38 pm     Well, there's still the possibility that Justin chooses Jee over Ali and that Ali chooses Jun over Justin because that's her best chance of beating someone in the finals. |
C1mag | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 03:37 pm     Final analysis.... Justin remaining in the game doesn't work for Jun. It gives Ali too much power and Jun would not have control of Jee. Jun will vote to evict Justin along with Jack. That is all that is needed and Justin will be gone. Jun does NOT benefit from Justin being in the game any longer. Ali will be a good block for her as she will no longer have Justin to hide behind. Robert will also be a walking target along with Jee as it has already been aknowledged that Jee must go because he is considered the one that no one could beat in the final round. Jun literally sucks the life force out of Jee, Rob and Alis game by evicting Justin. You may only get one chance. Don't be stupid and let emotions destroy your game. There is no way she is gonna keep him in the game. She isn't playing for the viewers. She's playing for jun and it's time for Justin to go. She has already told him it's just a game move and he said he would do the same thing in evicting him and Justin also said she'd be a fool to keep him in the game. |
Sherri | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 03:44 pm     Excellent C1mag |
Seanflynn2003 | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 04:00 pm     C1mag's analysis as usual is adept and incisive. I still think however that Jun should wait for Justin to approach her about making a deal, and see what he has to offer. I don't rule out it being something that works to her benefit. |
C1mag | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 04:08 pm     Sean there is nothing that he could offer her. Whats left? He would keep her safe if he gets hoh? She already has that offer from everyone. He isn't making a deal with her cause there is nothing to offer. She knows if he stays in the game she has no control over jee and Ali hides behind him. It won't happen. I don't know if you were up late when she got the POV but her and Justin have already talked and she told him this is how it has to be done. He said to her he totally understood and she'd be stupid to keep him in. There is nothing he could offer her. She couldn't even beat him in the final round of 2 and they covered that as well. I have never cared for Juns pot stirring of hatred. However, Jun is a rational thinker in this game when it comes to realizing that it's ok to make a move that will eliminate a more "popular" player even when it hurts. You only get one chance and there is nothing Justin can offer. |
Seanflynn2003 | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 04:16 pm     On balance I too would likely evict Jun if I were HoH. My case for listening to him is based on the following: 1) Whatever he offers she likely can trust; I don't know if that's true with all the others. Justin recognizes playing the game more than most other HGs, and is less likely to get emotionally entangled. And since almost certainly is going to go anyway, she can dictate a lot; 2) Because of his influence on Jee and to a lesser extent Allison, I think that very control makes an alliance with him more logical. 3) We're talking about at most a two week agreement -- that they both will target Jack and Erica next two weeks if any of the four others gets HoH. Next week, they would control 4 of the five potential HoH contest winners, and if they won HoH, 4 of 6 POV winners; and they would still control the voting at the end. This gets in down to likely who the final 4 are. This is Justin's best ploy to stay in, and if this is offered, I think Jun would be silly not to give it serious consideration. The main reason for Jun not to go along is that it is in her interests (forthe $500,000) for Robert and Allison to be with her in the final 3. If this flies, Jun risks a likely pass next week for a decent chance at a pass for 2 weeks. |
Seanflynn2003 | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 04:26 pm     To amend above: I meant in the first sentence that if I were Jun as a voter I would likely vote to evict Justin Sorry |
C1mag | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 04:43 pm     Justins strength as a player is nothing but a myth in this game and I think she realizes it. He has literally had a cakewalk in this game. The one time he gets hoh he himself said that BB handed it to him. So the thought that someone who hasn't even won the next hoh could convince you that they will keep you safe just doesn't work. What if he didn't get the next hoh? Then you evict him? What waist! That was the same game Nate tried to play last week with his offer and it was Jun who shot it down. Lets say He at the most gives her two weeks free. She's already been assured of that by everyone else already and in the process she has control over Jee and a lot more control over Ali not having to worry what Ali is cooking up with Justin. It leaves her more vulnerable in two weeks than what she would like if he stays. She can clearly see that in two weeks at the most Ali is the next target. It won't be her so she now has three weeks. She just doesn't benefit from any offers by Justin. She's set. They've all promised her protection for a while. The same protection he would offer but at least she doesn't have to stress that he is still in the game playing with Ali and controling Jee. She knows who everyone will be targeting the next two weeks and it's not her. How much tougher does she want it to be on her in two weeks with both Ali and Justin running the show while her and Jee twist in the wind only to find out that Jee will help Justin get rid of her? She's not a dumb girl. She knows how Ali works. Ali will target Jun as soon as she can but only if someone like Justin is around to help her do it. With him gone she won't have both him and Ali after her after his " two week deal" is up. she's more of a target if he stays in the game sooner than what she would like. What if he handed Ali an hoh victory so that Ali could do the dirty work and get out Jun? He may have promised Jun protection but we all know Ali's word don't mean diddle in this game. Keeping Justin in the game is just too much power with Ali and that doesn't work for Jun. Lose Justin now and Ali is almost forced to protect jun so that Ali has someone to play with for a while. It's the same with Jee. Justin goes and Jee protects Jun. Justin stays in and Jun has to stress it out wondering whats being cooked up. Again... Justin will go. There's nothing to offer. If she keeps him then I've given her too much credit as a rational thinker. |
Seanflynn2003 | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 04:53 pm     I guess where we disagree is that you assume that she can count on the guarantees from the others, and I think that this game is incredibly fluid, with some of the others playing a more emotional game with the potential of turning on a dime. Justin I believe offers a better chance of guaranteeing a two week deal. Also, if she makes the final two and he doesn't, there is some chance as the leader of a potential voting bloc he can help sway some other votes to her if he doesn't make it. Your arguments as always are valid and legitimate; all I hope is that she chooses the right path, since I'd like her to win. |
C1mag | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 04:54 pm     I wanted to add that with Justin also gone she has a better shot at winning an hoh if she needs it later on if she is up against just Ali and say Erika. I don't consider Rob to be a threat for Nothing when they are all trying for the prize. He only wins when it is handed to him. Everything just points to Justin going for her own benefit and less stress. If she thought that taking Ali to the finals would be a great deal for her then so be it. However, she can't even do that with Justin still in the game. |
Widowswalk | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 04:56 pm     Sorry to interrupt but does anyone know when the pov ceremony is? I know there is a lux comp first but isn't pov ceremony tonight? |
C1mag | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 04:58 pm     Where we disagree is that you feel his offer would be absolute in that he could definitely give her that deal because somehow he is capable of doing it. Common sense says he doesn't really have all that power to do that and with Ali still there it's impossible to know what little side game her and Justin would kick around. |
Wendo | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 05:00 pm     Widowswalk, the POV ceremony happened earlier today. From the HG's reactions after it was completed, it appeared POV was NOT used. |
C1mag | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 05:05 pm     Justin sway a vote at the end? LOL again soooo much more power given to this man than what he really has. Dana won't be told what to do. Jee is gonna give her the money if he isn't sitting there next to her. We all know that. Justin will tell Ali how to vote? Uh ... no one tells Ali what to do. We are living in her world and she is the princess. Nate is not playing a game anymore so Justin is nothing to him. Rob... Well, Rob is Rob. Jack and Erika will do what they want. No he won't be able to sway anyones votes in her favor. Although I'd love to hear that stupid offer to someone in this game... "keep me in and I promise if I do get the boot before you I will tell everyone to give you the money" and she's gonna believe that? All he would be thinking is... "you leave me in this game sucker, yeah I'll give ya two weeks and then you're outta here and I'll let ali do it and then I'll let you hand me the money" Don't forget... She isn't an idiot. |
Seanflynn2003 | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 05:05 pm     C1 I don't believe Justin would violate the agreement by undercutting it with Allison; as someone who has staked his reputation on not lying, that would hurt him worse than someone who people don't trust already. Can Allison be trusted? I think she will assess how best to get to the final four. She is more of a target for the next two weeks -- Jun and Justin both offering her some safety might get her to calm down. And if she double crossed them and ran to Jack and Erika (always possible), she will have a huge target on her back. If Justin doesn't even try though then your earlier comments about not being a strong player will be validated. His earlier conversation with Jun -- "I need you out because it's a game and you're strong" and his "if I am not in last 2 I want out now" I put down to positioning and gamemanship. |
Seanflynn2003 | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 05:08 pm     It's better to have people in the sequestered house saying Jun's played a good game than not. Who knows what the chemistry is going to be? The circumstances and people are different this year (both Justin and Jun are more mellow and humorous players than Roddy and Danielle), but I always thought last year both Danielle (who still came in 2nd) and Roddy (out of the money) could have tried a short term alliance at this point, and then Danielle might have gained Roddy's respect rather than enmity. Oh God, I just opened up another can of worms -- erase that! |
Stro27 | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 05:09 pm     The way I see it, if Jun takes Jus and Ali to the end with her, she stands a greater chance of them picking Jun to be in the finals with them, then she does with Jack and Erika. Justin or Ali would have no problems screwing the other over for a chance at the money. Whereas, Jack and Erika will stick with each other til the end. |
C1mag | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 05:11 pm     BTW... she should believe Jack and Erika when they say that she is safe for at least two weeks because they have had only three targets all along and they have kept those same three targets all along. If Jack says Rob is his next target then Robert is his next target. Justin even told them all that. Jack will tell ya who their target is and if he says it then it's not changing. Whereas, Justin has proven he flip flops all over the place with the game. So who can she trust? The two that keep the same targets all the time. In the process she kocked down the Justin and Ali wall that had her demise written all over it. |
Seanflynn2003 | Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 05:13 pm     Only Jack can be HoH next week, not Erika. Jee I suspect can be talked into nominating Jun as a pawn, but that puts her at risk (if Allison and Robert decide they'd rather have her gone). Under the keep Justin plan, there is a chance she could be safe with 4 of the 5 potential HoHs next week. |