The "Flip the Script" Gambit...an analysis
TV ClubHouse: ARCHIVES: Big Brother USA 2003 General Discussions Part 1:
The "Flip the Script" Gambit...an analysis
Onlyhuman | Friday, August 29, 2003 - 11:01 pm     As this season drags on to its inevitable conclusion (we can pretty much predict the final 3 at this point since it will be a miracle if Robert gets HOH next week) let's turn our thoughts thoughts to some BB strategy analysis... In each of the three BB “games” (I don’t count the first season) there was at least one time when the “script was flipped” and the person that was scheduled to be evicted did not go, surprising the HOH and it’s alliance. BB2: Sheryl went instead of Nicole BB3: Eric went instead of Lisa BB4: Michelle went instead of Erika What I noticed after thinking about this is that the beneficiary of the flipped script went much further in the game than any of the people who saved her. Nicole came in second, Lisa won and Erika is positioned to come in first, second or third. Why is this? At first I thought it was because flipping the script involves a serious power play and it requires a strong player to accomplish it successfully. Once you’ve orchestrated a move like this, you have a target on your back. Dave, who was the mastermind behind this year’s move, certainly brought a lot of attention to himself and everyone suddenly woke up to the fact that he was more than a goofball. Kent & Hardy, who masterminded the Nicole save, were too strong for the two of them to survive together. But even more importantly, flipping the script requires that you make enemies, that people who thought they could trust you find out that they can’t and that can be the kiss of death. In the meantime, the person who is saved gets to continue making deals and alliances. Suddenly, the person you saved has no use for you and you are expendable. So my suggestion to any BB5 contestants would be that if you have the opportunity to save an alliance member, don’t. Let them go and continue to play all people as long as possible and don’t make any power moves until the end. Remember, everyone fears the stronger players and you don’t want to be labeled as one because it will hurt you in the end. So what do you think? crossing fingers that at least one person responds before the thread sinks into oblivion... |
Shoes4me | Friday, August 29, 2003 - 11:24 pm     Great observation. Using the veto to save Alison sure didn't do Nathan a lot of good. And Marcellus didn't fight too hard to keep Gerry around even though Gerry had used the Veto to save him. The X factor forced these people into alliances way too early in the game. They hardly knew each other & yet expected blood loyalty. In a game where the object is to be the last man standing, there can be no lasting alliances, so why stick your neck out for anyone? This statement is based on life in the Big Brother house & not life in general....we should all do a little necking now & then! |
R151996 | Friday, August 29, 2003 - 11:28 pm     Good analysis. I think you also can extend it to include using the veto. Gerry saves Marcellas and Marcellas goes farther than Gerry--who knows how far who proper golden veto use. Nathan saves Ali and Ali is positioned to finish in the final three, and she might even get to demonstrate how to veto yourself off the block this week too. |
Onlyhuman | Friday, August 29, 2003 - 11:32 pm     Shoes, I wasn't even considering the Veto, but it certainly applies to that as well. The sad thing is, if people learn from this lesson, next year we will see a series of unanimous evictions as everyone tries to fly under the radar. No one will want HOH, no one will want POV (if it's back). The multiple alliances will give us all headaches as we try to figure out what everyone REALLY thinks. Oh, and thanks for replying. I hate to start threads because they usually go nowhere. |
Kmjm | Friday, August 29, 2003 - 11:32 pm     Onlyhuman, your posts are always thought-provoking. Interesting points. |
Tobor7 | Friday, August 29, 2003 - 11:39 pm     Only, I liked your post. Good going and an interesting take on things. If I had to give general advice, I would say to target and vote out the obvious liars and floaters as fast as possible. Not the strongest comp people. That way, if things go as planned, when the group thins, at least you know you have a good chance of working deals with people you can trust. (Or trust more than others.) |
Onlyhuman | Saturday, August 30, 2003 - 12:02 am     Tobor, that would be my thought except that what if EVERYONE is a floater and a liar? How can you tell who to target? As this year has shown, the problem with making alliances is that power is so fleeting. An alliance really can't survive, because it has no real way to protect itself, other than by not being obvious. So your only protection is to make as many cross alliances as you possibly can. Jun and Ali were able to survive because of this. Erika's strength was that she was considered the weakest in her strong alliance and then she was able to form an alliance at a critical moment. Everyone started out this year making tons of sub alliances and deals. Remember when we had no idea who was telling the truth and who wasn't? The problem came when the Elite 8 decided they could not sacrifice one of their own in order to maintain their cover. By bringing it out into the open, all of the sub alliances were broken. Those battle lines remained drawn, with only Jun & Ali smart enough to protect themselves. If they had let Erika go, it would have been a whole new ball game... But Dave, Nathan and Jack had to flex their muscles...very dumb strategy. |
R151996 | Saturday, August 30, 2003 - 12:20 am     For the reasons discussed in this thread, I think there needs to be a fundamental change in HOH for BB5--give the HOH immunity from nomination the next week if they can't compete for HOH again. HOH one week and out the door the next gives players "flying under the radar" an advantage too often. If not immunity, allow unlimited consecutive HOHs. |
Theowl | Saturday, August 30, 2003 - 06:07 am     After Jun went to New York, everyone said they wished they had got HOH, so maybe next year, the HOH winner would get a day trip. Not to NY or anything like that every week, but they could mix it up with a GREAT trip one week, and then a beach or dinner trip the next. I think they would try alittle harder for HOH.  |
Mrose4243 | Saturday, August 30, 2003 - 07:13 am     Onlyhuman, you are one of my favorite posters here! I have had these same thoughts, however you are quite eloquent and have said it way better than I could. I completely agree, and I also noticed that many times, the person who was just saved in the nick of time becomes HOH that same night, or winds up getting the veto. Coincidence? Stuff like this makes me wonder how much this 'reality' show is 'scripted' (flipped or otherwise!) |
Dan | Saturday, August 30, 2003 - 08:10 am     Sorry wrong thread |
Rob_Robe | Saturday, August 30, 2003 - 09:00 am     nicely put OnlyHuman |
Eeyoreslament | Saturday, August 30, 2003 - 09:57 am     This is a great post Onlyhuman. What I don't understand is how Justin this year got labeled as a strong player. All we saw out of him was a bit of tenacity in the kneeling HoH competition. He was quiet, and didn't outwardly play much "game". So some players get labeled as "strong", even when they haven't ever made waves. I think it is interesting that people who get "saved" usually end up going very far in the game. Perhaps it isn't that someone in BB5 should resist flipping the script, but the better advice would be to go with the flow of the house, because maybe the early "house hunches" are correct. Definitely need to say it again though, great post. |
Cangaroo | Sunday, August 31, 2003 - 10:25 am     Onlyhuman made some very good points. Next year, if people tend to not want to win because they want to fly under the radar, etc., maybe BB will have to attach better rewards to the winning. Sort of like, well, attaching cash bonuses to each PoV won and even more of a bonus if they actually use it and attaching a bonus to each HoH won. Something like $5,000 to each competition...that way maybe greed will win out over them wanting to fly under the radar. |
Spunky | Tuesday, September 02, 2003 - 05:30 pm     Very interesting thread... It could very well flip again on Wednesday with the surprise eviction of either Erika or Robert and not Jee at all...You never know... |
Lancecrossfire | Tuesday, September 02, 2003 - 07:31 pm     I think it will flip again, and Jun will nominate Erika in Ali's place--it will be a tie vote and Jun will evict Erika. Jun will then remind them that she got rid of the one player that would take the 500K no matter who she faced between the rest of them. Jee is safe again. In HOH, they have to be careful--the person not winning HOH and not nominated gets the only vote--that is more powerful than HOH! If Jee gets it, he puts up Ali and Robert--giving Jun the vote on who to evict. If Robert wins, he puts up Ali and Hun--giving Jee the power to pick, and Jee evicts Ali. If Ali wins, she has to really weigh who she does NOT nominate. The only way Jun AND Jee are not safe is if Ali puts them both up, giving Robert complete say in who goes--I'm not sure Ali wants to do that. Chances are, Jun and Jee are in final 3, and keep their secret alliance intact. At worst, Jee and Jun face Ali for last HOH--the best being they face Robert, and between Jee and Jun, Robert has a very low chance of winning the last HOH. |
Onlyhuman | Tuesday, September 02, 2003 - 07:50 pm     Lance, I've thought of that but I just DO NOT see Jun doing that at this point. She is very aware that she has jumped ship once and that it may cost her votes. I can't see her doing it again. Her personality type is much more non-confrontational. She'll slip the knife in your back but she won't attack you directly. For that reason, I don't see her flipping the script, though it would make for an AWESOME TV moment! |
Tobor7 | Tuesday, September 02, 2003 - 07:54 pm     Lance. I like it. I like it a lot. It would certainly keep it interesting. More evidence of The Power of Jee. |
Saggkl | Tuesday, September 02, 2003 - 08:35 pm     If Lances idea comes to fruation, I will truly begin to believe Tabors Power of Jee. |
Wilsonatmd | Tuesday, September 02, 2003 - 08:47 pm     Jun knows flipping the script would cost her the game.....If Jee or Robert is sitting next to her in the final 2, she knows she's lost 2 votes already, since the other two stooges would vote for whoever's left. She then needs 4 out of 5....not good odds. I think Jun thinks her best chance of winning is against Alison (where it's probably up for grabs), then against Erika (she has to win 4 out of 6 votes, because Jack would vote for Erika...much better chance of getting 4 or 6 than 4 of 5) . She won't rock the boat...because she can't get HOH this week, and the veto is most likely out of play. So best to stick with voting out Jee or Robert. If she can keep Jee, that helps. But she has to be against a woman in the final two, or it will be almost impossible for her to win. |
Planelady14 | Tuesday, September 02, 2003 - 09:22 pm     I think it would be a more interesting game if the POV winner got to put up a new nomination if s/he uses the veto. I think that would encourage POV winners to actually use it! |
Lancecrossfire | Tuesday, September 02, 2003 - 11:30 pm     Wilson, the reason I think Jun will stay with Jee (and do the things I suggested) is that if it comes down to Ali, Erika and Jun for HOH, Jun has little chance against both of them. Most likely either Ali or Erika would win HOH--and the chances of either one of them taking Jun to final two isn't nearly as good as it would be if she showed her hand now and got rid of Erika and went for trying to be in the final 2 with Jee. I think Jun is playing for 500K, but to have a chance at it, you have to have someone in the final 3 you 1) can feel at least a little comfort in and 2) a decent chance of winning HOH. I think with Ali and Erika, neither is likely. Note that there will be no more POV's after Ali. |
Lancecrossfire | Wednesday, September 03, 2003 - 06:57 pm     Well, I suck! I had that all wrong. I think it would have worked for Jun, but she is playing the game, not me--lol. She's still in the game, so she's doing something right. |
Neciefranklin | Thursday, September 04, 2003 - 09:28 am     I must say, lots of you on this thread have made some very thought provoking and valid points. I agree with so much that is being said. I think that everyone left in the game has a different agenda on how to make it to the final two and who to take with them. They are in this by themselves, and there are no true alliances left. Has that happened in any other BB? Jun, I fear, is pretty well gone, because I don't see anyone wanting to be in the final two with her. I think everyone is looking for that one lightbulb to go off in their head, that lets them know who to go up against in the final. |
Gina8642 | Thursday, September 04, 2003 - 09:50 am     Jun has a slightly better chance than 50/50 chance of making it past Wednesday. Follow this: Robert will put up Alison & Jun. If Ali or Jun wins Veto: -they will veto themselves -Erika will go up and the veto winner will vote out Erika. (Because Erika can beat either of them in final two, and Erika is good at comps and might win final HOH.) That's the 50% chance. If Erika or Robert wins veto: -the nominations stand. -Erika decides who goes. Erika was clearly flip-flopping last night on who it would be best to vote out. She isn't solid either way. So, here's where the 'slightly better' than 50% comes in. Erika's decision isn't firm. By the exact same logic, Ali also has a slighly better than 50% chance of staying. Erika actually has the best chance of going this week. 50%. |
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