Lisa's options (if Marcellas wins HOH this week and nominates Jason and Danielle)
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TV ClubHouse: Archive: ARCHIVE TWO: Lisa's options (if Marcellas wins HOH this week and nominates Jason and Danielle)

Onslaught

Wednesday, September 11, 2002 - 08:28 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Note: This is assuming that Marcellas wins HOH tomorrow and puts up Jason and Danielle.

This is wishful thinking on my part, but I could see it happening if Lisa really thinks long and hard about her options.

Okay...

If Marcellas gets HOH and puts up Jason and Dani (as he says he will), Lisa should really look at her options. Lisa will be the sole vote and control who goes next week.

At first Lisa may think she should vote to evict Jason because he's too strong at the end and is good at winning HOH. But, she should think about her options instead of deciding right away to evict Jason.

If Lisa evicts Jason:

- Marcellas could win the final HOH and would take Dani to the finals with him, evicting Lisa (right after Jason was evicted). I think Lisa might have sensed from her strategy session with Marcellas that Marcellas would take Dani to the finals. Hopefully.

- Dani is not good at winning HOHs. But if she won she would probably take Marcellas. Lisa may think Dani would take her, but again, Lisa knows that Dani is not good at winning HOHs and would probably not win.

- Therefore, Lisa should conclude here that to get to the finals, she would HAVE to win the final HOH.

If Lisa evicts Danielle:

- Lisa would not only split up the Jason and Dani alliance, removing the person Jason would've kept over anyone, but she would also remove the person Marcellas would take to the finals with him. Again, this is if she perceives the alliance betweem Marcellas and Danielle.

- If Marcellas won the final HOH, he would take Lisa to the finals and evict Jason since he sees Jason as too strong an opponent. Lisa knows that Marcellas wants Jason out more than anyone. So if she voted Dani out, he wouldn't get revenge on her and would understand (in fact he told her she can vote how she wants).

- Lisa should perceive that if Jason won HOH, he would take her into the finals and evict Marcellas out of sheer loyalty to her for keeping him in the game (if she strikes a deal with him). She can strike a deal with Jason here. Jason is good at winning HOH, and if he did win the final one, he would probably take Lisa. IMO. While in this case she may not win (then again, out of all the remaining houseguests she has the best shot at beating Jason), at least she'd be pulled into the finals and be guaranteed $50K. It wouldn't be the best scenario for her, but hey, at least she'd be (IMO) guaranteed to be in the finals!

- If Lisa won the final HOH she could take Marcellas into the finals with her and evict Jason.

- But in this scenario, no matter what happened, Lisa would be in the finals (IMO). She may not win against Jason, but this way she's guaranteed to be in the finals. This is contrasted with the other scenario, where Lisa would HAVE to win the final HOH to get to the finals, since Marcellas wouldn't take her and Dani most likely won't win HOH. Of course, Marcellas can lie to Lisa and say he'd take her into the finals with him...and throw a whole wrench into this thought process.

And if she chose to evict Danielle, we'd get the Lisa and Jason final 2 that we (or at least I) want!!!

Either that or a Marcellas and Dani final.

Ericka1012

Wednesday, September 11, 2002 - 08:37 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
you also have to make the assumption that Marcy either uses the GPOV and Jason doesn't put her up and they evict her...or that Marcy thinks he won't get voted out and doesn't use it and they vote Amy out...Amy is still in the picture until tomorrow...REMEMBER: They want to vote Marcy out if he doesn't use the GPOV...if he uses it who does Jason put up...and what will happen with the vote...They all believe they are safe with Amy in the finals...Accept for Marcy who thinks he can beat anyone but Jason...

BUT GOOD DREAM NONE THE LESS :)

Kmjm

Wednesday, September 11, 2002 - 08:40 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Fascinating analysis, Onslaught! I can't find any flaws in your reasoning. But will Lisa see it?

Krossd

Wednesday, September 11, 2002 - 09:11 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I wonder if Lisa even sees that he may put her up if Marc uses the GPOV!! She NEEDS to talk to Dani and Jason together, and reaffirm the deal they gave their words on.

One question? Are they still in agreement that Marc has to go tomorrow? It sure looks like they are leaning toward Amy (Jason has been on her case all week, Dani isn't saying she may stay....) I've asked in the Coaching Lisa thread but no bitters on this Q. Any takers here?

(I wish BB would stop locking them in the house... it doesn't give them a chance to talk with no where to go out of earshot of the others.)

Abbynormal

Wednesday, September 11, 2002 - 09:57 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I could be wrong, probably am, but I think Lisa would have a good chance to beat Jason in the finals. I don't think alot of people will be looking favorably at Danielle and he has been aligned with her the whole time. You know, kind of the old "play in s*it and you're going get some on you" saying.

Kittykatt

Wednesday, September 11, 2002 - 10:07 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
LOL Dani just asked where Arkansas was! LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO SHE THOUGHT IT WAS BY ARIZONA LOLOLOLOLOLOL

Krossd

Wednesday, September 11, 2002 - 11:06 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I think Lisa stand a good chance against Jason too... point is she may not... and even still... I can't figure out why she hasn't re-affirmed the deal with Jason/Dani to not vote for the other during this HOH - just in case Marc does take himself off with the GPOV! (My thinking is Marc and Dani might not think they could win against her either.... so if they insert her in, they could vote her out instead of Amy.

Marcieb

Thursday, September 12, 2002 - 05:53 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Great analysis, Onslaught! It makes me even more anxious for tonight's show--all those variables coming into play should make the two hours go by really fast! Now if only the next 10 1/2 hours would... :(

Alaginger

Thursday, September 12, 2002 - 06:51 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Right On Onslaught....if Lisa makes it through tomorrow's eviction. Good analysis!!!

Fruitbat

Thursday, September 12, 2002 - 07:04 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Good Onslaught, I agree.

I think Dani has thrown every HOH and could win one if she desires. Certainly as easily as anyone else. Lisa as well. They will both duck this one and give it to Mar.

Fruitbat

Thursday, September 12, 2002 - 07:25 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I hope you are correct. I can see her winning HOH and putting Dani and Jason on the block with Mar voting for Jason. I am not confident she is with this logic.