Strategy Time
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Archive through August 30, 2002 25   08/30 12:20am

Fabnsab

Friday, August 30, 2002 - 12:21 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Guys, are we forgetting the Hot tub convo between Roddy and "Mr. Handsome"? The latest info we really have is that Marcellas sold Dani out to Roddy and Mar promised Rod they'd be the final two. I know alot of them have said this but I truly believe that he WILL NOT nominate Roddy. Besides, I said the same thing about Jason last week at this exact time and at the risk of being obnoxious, I sho wuz right. I think he will go for Jason and Danielle or Lisa and Danielle.

Annitar

Friday, August 30, 2002 - 12:23 am EditMoveDeleteIP
If any of the evicted HGs see that horrible display of vileness from Marcie concerning Gerry (you know the let's see how many ways Amy & I can picture the man dying) there is no way in heck he will get the votes! If they see that I would guess that Marce is going to lose no matter who he is up against. I would guess that he would even easily lose against Roddy if they see that vile display!

Riviere

Friday, August 30, 2002 - 12:27 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Best strategy for Marcellas: oh heck listen to the wormtongued Amy and throw Roddy and Dani up, clash of the titans.. Better strategy: put up Roddy and Dani, either one wins veto they won't use it.. Win Win sceneario! Get rid of Roddy, it's the last chance you've all got!!! Jason's parents even screamed in their interview RODDY! They can see this guy is as insincere as it gets and choirboy should have nommed him when he had the chance, he's just tooooo weak!

Gouraphik

Friday, August 30, 2002 - 12:28 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Hey...maybe Danielle will honor whatever promise she gave to Marcellas. Maybe she'll even throw herself on the sword for him given the chance. Anything can happen.

But I'm not an advocate of the "word is bond" school of thought. It's just too ephemeral. If Marcellas wants Danielle to take him higher, he should make it so that she has no choice in the matter, or at least limited choices.

Again, I'm stressing what is in Marcellas's theoretical best interest. For all I know, he wants Danielle to win. Maybe he'll sacrifice himself for her benefit...or someone else's. Maybe he's just a fast & loose player, who lets his emotions guide his strategy. I don't know. But theoretically, if he wants to win, he can't let two other people stay so close to Danielle if he decides that she's his meal ticket. There is no good reason to do so.

True, Danielle or Jason/Lisa (whoever survives) might try to get him out of a sense of betrayal or whatnot...but with Roddy still in the game, it'd be harder for them to pull it off. His chances of long-term survival would still be higher this way. Not guaranteed...just higher.

This is not, I repeat, not a prediction. It's just cold-blooded, objective analysis from Marcellas's perspective...if he truly wants to win.

Eden

Friday, August 30, 2002 - 12:54 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Wendo, yes, I agree, Roddy THINKS he has allies but does he? Danielle won't nominate him but she'll vote him out without blinking. Jason's first allegiance is to Danielle (according to him tonight). He didn't want to nominate Roddy but he'll go along to vote him out. Lisa wants Roddy gone. Amy, is his only even close to a real ally and I'm not sure she wouldn't vote him out, especially since she heard he was campaigning to oust her. Marsellas did have the hot hot tub conversation with Roddy but I think he's seen how much the house wants Roddy gone. I don't think he'll fight off the whole house and the wrath to follow to keep Roddy when he can just as easily resume his alliance with Danielle.

Looks like Roddy's ally cupboard is pretty bare, to me.

Wendo

Friday, August 30, 2002 - 01:47 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Gouraphik, I just don't think Marcellas is aware of how strong Dani's bond to Lisa and Jason are. She's been very good at keeping things under wraps. Marcellas hasn't. So, Dani knows that Mar has made a deal with Rod in the past. Mar just doesn't have all the facts we do.

So, when trying to guess what would be Mars best strategy, you have to base it on the information Marcellas has, not what we have. That's why it's more difficult to guess what Mar will do.

Squaredsc

Friday, August 30, 2002 - 06:06 am EditMoveDeleteIP
guys you are making my head spin and i haven't had my morning cup of coffee yet.<grin>

Romans8_1

Friday, August 30, 2002 - 06:07 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I posted this elsewhere, but it seems relevant here also.

Prediction ... Lisa and Jason are up.

Here's why.

1) helps break up the L/J/D alliance (as long as D does not get veto)

2) this is key *** - keeps both D and R in the game. This is guaranteed to keep them focused on each other and off of Marc/Amy. If D gets it next week, then R is up and vice-versa. Then if A/M get it the next week, they pick off the other D/R that didn't get evicted. This will put A/M/(L/J) in the final 3.

All this will work barring the veto being used.

Only 2 people would use the veto in this scenerio
1) Danni to save Lisa (knowing those 2 could save J)
2) R to save J

Minnyace01

Friday, August 30, 2002 - 08:41 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Folks, if Dani has it her way, Roddy goes next, followed by Amy, and then Marcellas. The only way that Marcellas has a chance to stay in this game is to stick to his agreement with Roddy; nominate Dani and Lisa, and hope that Dani gets voted out. If this happens, he still has a fighting chance to make it to the final 2.

Cmc209

Friday, August 30, 2002 - 09:13 am EditMoveDeleteIP
If there was anytime to send a banner, this week would be the week - suggest who Mar should nominate... too bad we couldn't have sent one when Josh made the mistake of not getting rid of Roddy when he had the chance.

Whit4you

Friday, August 30, 2002 - 09:35 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Not that I want marc to win - but the only way he CAN win is to have Amy next to him in the finals. None of the houseguests who didn't get a 2nd chance will vote for Amy to win the 500 g's. The only ones who MIGHT vote Amy over Marc would be Eric, Tonya and Lori - and possibly Gerry. So he'd win.

Marc made a deal with Roddy so he can't nom him unless it's as a decoy but I doubt Roddy would agree to be used as a decoy.

So Marc needs to put up Dani and Lisa.

Spunky

Friday, August 30, 2002 - 09:57 am EditMoveDeleteIP
(This in reply to the first post)
You say I only have 36 hours to be Roddy until nominations???
Easy!!!
"Marcellas, can I come in??"
"Sure Roddy, I was expecting you...."
"Okay, I haven't got much to say but I want to ask you one thing..."
"Sure what is it??"
"Are you going to put me up???" he looks at Marcellas sideways with a faint smile...
Marcellas is starstruck again...
"No Roddy, you know I can't do that you."
"Fair enough! That's all I needed from you."

On Wednesday you'll hear: "I nominated both of you Roddy and Danielle" because I'm tired of this ongoing clash of the titans and only one of you can survive this round.

Hey, you asked....

Gouraphik

Friday, August 30, 2002 - 10:04 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Wendo, I realize that Marcellas may be unaware of the strength of the Jason & Lisa bond...but that doesn't really matter. If he wants Danielle for himself, he should blow the others away.

If he thinks Jason & Lisa are mere pawns, then getting rid of them should be no problem. What I suspect is that if he doesn't take them out, it may be more due to his desire to be liked (he'd risk losing his membership in the "good people" club if he didn't nom Roddy) than anything else.

Can I predict what will happen? Of course not...nobody can. Can I forecast what will happen? Sure...meteorologists do it all the time, but that's not what I'm doing here. I'm simply making a hardcore analysis. Getting rid of Jason or Lisa this week is in his long-term best interest...whether he realizes it or not.

Spunky

Friday, August 30, 2002 - 10:05 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Oh geezz... why did I say Wednesday...
we'll know about the nominations tonight!!!!

Groucho

Friday, August 30, 2002 - 12:40 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Has anybody heard any strategy talk INSIDE the house since Marc got HoH? I didn't hear any last night.

The strategy analysis on this board is great (and btw I'm on board with nominating J/L). I sure hope Marc and the other players are considering their strategic options just as carefully as we are. But somehow, I don't think they are.

Bernie

Friday, August 30, 2002 - 12:45 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I didn't hear anything Groucho, and I expected to, when Marcellas and Amy were in HOH together, but their brief convo late at night was a bit stilted and only about his HOH photos. Not at ALL what I expected!
I'm not even going to make any suggestions myself-I don't usually come to these threads because I can't keep up with all the computations-math is not my forte-I'm a word person!