Likely Vote Scenarios- Final Two
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TV ClubHouse: Archive: Archives One: Likely Vote Scenarios- Final Two

Kenilworth

Tuesday, August 20, 2002 - 07:09 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Realizing that after we're through with this week we're down to seven players- again- that means we have 21 combinations of players. ((7x6)/2)

In guessing at outcomes I assumed (wrongly, perhaps) that Roddy would survive. But this does point to the urgent need to defeat Roddy (and Jason, I guess) if you're playing the game...

(If Chiara survives, Gerry in a "Gerry vs. Chiara" match might join the tentative winners below!)

Here's my general findings:

1-6 Jason beats EVERYONE

7-11 Roddy beats EVERYONE- Except Jason (Why? Three Couples Alliance votes + Josh + Tanya gives you five votes to start with)

12-15 Danielle can beat Marcellus, Gerry and Amy (AND tie with Lisa)

16-17 Marcellus can beat Amy and Gerry

18- 20 Lisa can beat Marcellus and Gerry (AND tie with Danielle as mentioned above AND Amy)

21 Amy can beat Gerry and (AND tie with Lisa as mentioned above)

Open for discussion...

Marcieb

Tuesday, August 20, 2002 - 07:59 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Ken, I KNEW I was clueless before but after reading all that, my head is spinning. Good work!

But is it totally impossible to consider that 1-6 is, say, Dannie beating EVERYONE? Wouldn't there be more iterations if 1-6 in every scenario is a different HG taking it all, not just Jason? Can there be no chance Gerry won't win? Or by saying "findings," do you mean your opinion?

Enlighten me, friend!

Crazydog

Tuesday, August 20, 2002 - 08:12 am EditMoveDeleteIP
IMO, it's much too early to start speculating like this. One, there are just way too many people involved right now. Two, a lot can happen between now and 6 weeks. Alliances can be made and broken. Yesterday Marc was Dani's bestest friend, and today she is out for his blood. Yesterday he solidly would have had her vote, today she'd vote for Snuffaluffagus over him. Maybe when they are down to four it's better to talk about this. Right now it's just making my head spin!

Lauram

Tuesday, August 20, 2002 - 08:21 am EditMoveDeleteIP
o.k. maybe I haven't ingested enough coffee but for the life of me I can't figure out your scenorio. What does 1-6, 7-11, 12-15, 16-17 ect stand for???

Kenilworth

Tuesday, August 20, 2002 - 08:46 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Marcieb-
As for findings, I tried to keep my personal feelings out of it. Not a Roddy fan, but he won the most often- next to Jason.

I went on a "general good feelings in the house" principle-- not who insulted whom in the latest feed.

I created a spreadsheet that tried to list everyone's vote.

Nothing against Danielle (in fact I like her), but I think Roddy's voting bloc and Jason's general good guy (or wily guy) image would be tough competition. Everyone else she beats EXCEPT Lisa and that's a TIE!

If you leave your e-mail address I'll send you the spreadsheet I used-- or ask about a specific vote and I'll provide a breakdown of my "findings." More than happy to have my instincts proved wrong, but what I think is interesting is assuming I'm generally on target, what should a houseguest do to win?

Danielle- Dump Roddy (she's trying) and Jason (MAYBE later)

Roddy- Dump Jason (he's trying, but wrong week)

Gerry- Keep Chiara (hmmm...)

Amy- Keep Gerry

Marcello- Keep Gerry (in fact he's trying to dump him!) and Amy (that's easy for him)

Lisa- Dump Roddy (she's trying) and Jason (hasn't entered her mind) and cross her fingers that she wins ties.

As Jason says, Danielle plays several weeks ahead. And so does Roddy-- maybe he doesn't mind losing allies (Eric, Josh, Kiki-maybe)... It's all about surviving...

Kenilworth

Tuesday, August 20, 2002 - 08:58 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Lauram-

There are 21 possible matchups. I used this to make sure I didn't miss any of them. I HATE detail work!

The numbers count them down...
6 1-6 Marcellus matchups
5 7-11 Roddy matchups (excluding above)
4 12-15 Danielle matchups (excluding above)
3 16-17 Jason matchups (excluding above)
2 18-20 Gerry matchups (excluding above)
1 21 Amy matchup (excluding above)
==
21

By the way- of course it's too early to do this-- that's what makes it fun... I think!

Inkydinkyspider

Tuesday, August 20, 2002 - 09:06 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Kenilworth...you are way over my head baby! Maybe you and Roddy can hook up after the show...Whew!

Skeldragon

Tuesday, August 20, 2002 - 09:14 am EditMoveDeleteIP
ROFLMAO - Kenilworth, you make me feel like Tonya :-)

Zachsmom

Tuesday, August 20, 2002 - 09:25 am EditMoveDeleteIP
hmmmm I think I'll go read about the tarot cards..probably have more luck understanding over there..:)

(I am impressed Ken!!)

Kady

Tuesday, August 20, 2002 - 12:08 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Ken, Is this Vegas? You taking bets or something? :)

Kitty54

Tuesday, August 20, 2002 - 12:19 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
It's way too early in the game. Last year we tried this and Will & Nichole were not predicted. This game changes daily. It still depends on who gets HOH. Personally, I'm hoping Jason makes it to the final 2, but I think the other HG know he'd be a liability, to them.

Marysafan

Tuesday, August 20, 2002 - 12:21 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Kenilworth, I believe your Roddy votes are flawed. You are counting Lisa voting for Roddy...I don't think that is a given.

I see her voting for Danielle over Roddy.

Earthmother

Tuesday, August 20, 2002 - 12:21 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
huh!!! This is why I don't teach math, all those numbers; put a face on them!!

Aria

Tuesday, August 20, 2002 - 12:28 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
What about the Amy factor in Chiara staying? I wonder how many would vote for Amy over Chi given that she was once evicted.

I agree with Mary about Lisa's vote for Roddy. I also think that she may be inclined to vote for Amy over Roddy. And I am also not sure about Josh's vote for Roddy now that he is out and can see the tapes.

Ginger1218

Tuesday, August 20, 2002 - 12:31 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Clueless <~~~~~

Crazydog

Tuesday, August 20, 2002 - 01:15 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Assuming Roddy somehow survives, I don't necessarily think he has a bloc behind him. The only for sure votes for him would be Eric and Josh. After her dumping I don't know if Chiara would vote for him (it would depend on his competition) and who knows what goes through Tonya's head.

I also don't think Danielle can defeat anybody. Assuming there is a voiding and that each voids correctly, the voids have no effect:

Jason (R,E,Jo,G,M,T,Lo)
beats
Danielle (Li,C,A)

Roddy (E,Jo,G,M,T,Lo,A,C)
beats
Danielle (Li,Ja)

Lisa (E,R,M,T,Lo)
beats
Danielle (Ja,C,G,A,Jo)
[America chooses Lisa]

Marc (A,E,R,G,T,Lo,Jo)
beats
Danielle (Ja,C,Li)

Gerry (R,E,Jo,T,Lo)
beats
Danielle (Ja,C,Li,A,M)
[America chooses Gerry]

Amy (M,R,E,Jo,T,Lo)
beats
Danielle (Ja,Li,C,G)

Roddy won't vote for his rival Danielle. Eric won't vote for the woman who evicted him twice. Tonya won't vote for her after her boyfriend tells her how much nasty stuff Dani has said about her. Lori's eviction is due in part to her blowup with Dani. Marcellus won't vote for her unless she is up against Gerry. Josh won't vote for her unless she is up against Lisa. Jason and Lisa would always vote for her. Chiara would vote for her unless she is up against Roddy. Amy would vote for her unless she is up against Marc. Gerry is a swing.

Whew. OK, that's too much thinking, too far in advance. But as it stands I don't see Dani winning. Her best chances to me are against Lisa and Gerry and even then I think America will choose the non-Dani. If she manages to get to the finals no doubt she will step on more toes and cost herself more votes. Last year it seemed like Monica would have supported Nicole all the way until a particularly nasty eviction.