Speculate on new alliances
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TV ClubHouse: Archives: Speculate on new alliances

Jayalltheway

Thursday, August 15, 2002 - 09:19 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I think the game is starting to get to the point where there are too many people in one alliance. Dani, Jason, Lisa, Marc and Amy and maybe even Gerry seem to be in almost a loose alliance at this point. That's way too many people and not everyone likes everyone. With the return of Amy, what do you think the new alliances in the house will be?

With Marc being all mood swingy, I think Dani's going to cut him loose and the real clique will be Dani, Jason and Lisa. Marc and Amy will stick together, but with both of them being so emotional, will they vote together? And will the Supersized Alliance get rid of Chiara and Roddy before it starts imploding? Or will they go for Gerry, allowing for the chance that Chiara and Roddy will win HOH next week. I'm also wondering if anyone will join up with Chia and Rod.

Muse

Thursday, August 15, 2002 - 10:54 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I was thinking the same thing. Danielle's thrilled about Amy coming back, but I don't know if she necessarily should be. The alliance is just becoming too big at this point. I think they will work together to get rid of Roddy, Chiara, and Gerry (assuming those three don't win HOH), since they're all outsiders. But after that...I don't know.

Jason and Danielle are obviously paired up, but will Marcellas choose to stick with them over Amy? And will Lisa side with Danielle (who she seems closest to) or Marcellas (who she seems to trust more - I get this feeling that she's a little wary of Danielle)? And there's the whole fact that Jason isn't really closely tied to Lisa or Amy at this point...they like him, but there's no agreement between him and those two. And I agree that Marcellas and Amy are so emotional - Marcellas especially might get fed up with her.

Kminfinity

Thursday, August 15, 2002 - 11:03 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Well, heres how Danielle should try to play it.

~Keep the Supersized Alliance together and evict Roddy then Chiara....

~Take out Gerry next (unless she has a deep plan to dump Jason and use unliked Gerry in the F2)

~Hope like hell that she has HoH that week, and nominate Marci and Amy (after securing Lisa's trust by this action, and implying Lisa is her F2 buddy, which is really Jason)

~Say Amy is then booted. Hope Marci doesn't get HoH, then get him evicted using Lisa.

In other words--if Dani has a tight alliance with Jason, she needs to pick off the outsiders first. Then after the Gerry eviction, she needs to think about the endgame carefully...

Hotty_Toddy

Thursday, August 15, 2002 - 11:34 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
There are definitely starting to be too many cooks in the kitchen.

I think Marc has too much invested in Dani now to want to let go of her, but she will probably see that Marc is more of a liability. I have been watching Marc in the HOH with Amy and he seems a little withdrawn. I think he is going to backlash against her. I kind of hope so because neither one of them is going to get anywhere if they are an alliance. The alliance that I would really like to see form now that would make a lot of sense if they could see where things are heading is Amy and Lisa, maybe with Gerry as a looser ally. I really don't know how loyal Jason is to Dani and Marc is unstable, so if a group forms to counter Dani's influence, it would keep the game from becoming one-sided in that direction. Only problem is, Amy and Lisa both like Dani a lot. Maybe if Chiara were evicted Roddy would reel in Amy and Lisa as a new clique. Hell, he could do it. And he is sure to recognize very quickly that these demure and delicate creatures have suudenly shown a will to be reckoned with. If Lisa and Amy could find a way to team up, they would be a formidable pair. Of course, this probably won't happen, and it's just my wishful thinking now that Lisa has come into her own and I don't like Marcellus anymore.

Annitar

Thursday, August 15, 2002 - 11:46 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
If they are smart Lisa & Danielle will stick by each other. I think they could be a really tough alliance to break. They are both thinking the same way about the game right now and they could do some real damage if they played their cards right.

Marce & Amy are too emotional about the silly stuff. No one wants to be stuck with Gerry. Jason is kinda hard to pin down... so I think Dani & Lisa could by far be the most powerful duo if they wanted to be.

JMHO.

Wendo

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 04:17 am EditMoveDeleteIP
According to the live feeds, Danielle told Lisa tonight (after Lisa asked if Dan wanted HOH) that she didn't want HOH, that there's no one yet she wants to nominate. That, when she's ready to put someone on the block, she will.

I'm wondering if that comment by Dani may come back to bite her on the a**. Why? Because in Lisa's DR entry about her eviction decisions she commented about Roddy having other people do his dirty work and she didn't like it. So, Lisa hears Danielle say this and may look at her differently. She may wonder, hmm, does Dan want me to do her work too. This could backfire on Danielle. She should take her own advice, don't spill all your beans.

Although, Danielle has really been helpful to Lisa, always telling her to not say much, and keep her eyes open. So, she may feel that she's closer to Dan than anyone else in the house.

Time will tell...

ps. Did anyone notice on tonight's show, there was no HOH (Chiara) meeting with Julie. Wonder if Chiara was bummed about that, no camera time!

pps. Another thought about Roddy. He seemed to be wondering tonight with Gerry (?) whether or not Amy had seen his goodbye message to her. I'm wondering if Roddy now regrets focusing so hard on endgame. That, had he not been so "forceful" about Amy getting a unanimous vote, he wouldn't be in so much jeapordy with Amy. Hmmm...

Fruitbat

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 04:55 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I think the Danielle/Jason alliance is tight. Their plan was to keep that secret. I have no reason to believe this is not still true. I don't like this. Too familiar. Colby/Tina Ethan/Kim type deal. Boring.

Possibility: At some point Lisa and Amy could see that Dani and Jason are threats to win a jury vote and break away with Marcellas and Gerry.

I am not ruling out BB changing the rules at some point to shake up the routine. The veto is not all that exciting and probably not the twist they had hoped for.

I think the big alliance will hold through the eviction of Roddy and Chiara if neither win HOH.

I think Gerry and Marcellas may make it quite far. There is a point in the game where strategies change to consider who you want to be with in front of the jury.

I can see Amy winning this thing.

Eden

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 05:17 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Veto will play a more important role when they get down to the core alliances. So far no one has wanted to expose themselves enough to use it. As the numbers dwindle that will change and Veto power will become almost as important as HOH.

Alaginger

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 06:06 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I think the houseguests will work as a team to get rid of Chiara and Roddy. That will be the half-way mark, which at some point Gerry said he wanted to reach that point to prove himself to the family (even though I know he would really rather win the $500K), but based on that I think the group would let them go. At that point, I think they will all be for themselves, but with Marcellas/Amy and Danielle/Jason alliances still being intact, Lisa is going to have a rough go of it then unless things shift...... Note: all of the above is assuming that Roddy doesn't get HOH the next time.

John1971

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 06:10 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I think that Lisa/Danielle/Jason will be an alliance, Marcellas and Amy, and I think Chiara/Gerry/Roddy will work together. Once Roddy is gone this week (or Chiara), I think that Gerry will try and kiss up to Amy and Marc and Chiara will finally realize she's all alone.

Minnyace01

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 06:14 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Roddy's last stand will probably come today. He is going to have to make a deal with both Amy and Marcellas that will have him and Chiara vote to give Gerry the boot this week and agree not to nominate any of the 4 (A, M, C, R) for the next couple of weeks. It's a long shot at best, but Dani's alliance is so big that maybe Marcellas is going to decide to take a shot at it.

Hermione69

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 06:22 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Roddy seemed to be trying to disassociate from Chiara last night. He is trying to realign, I think, but I am not sure who he ultimately envisions as part of his next alliance. I do think he is trying to keep Gerry around.

Someone said something about the Danielle/Jason and Marc/Amy alliances being so tight and giving Lisa a hard time fitting in. Does Lisa even know how tight Jason and Dani are? Lisa may think it is her and Dani and not worry about it.

I really have no idea how this will play out as far as alliances!! I think I want to wait and see who Amy nominates first. There has been a lot of speculation this morning that Roddy is winning her over because of their late night bonding session (gag).

Maryk

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 06:46 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Roddy is making is last ditch effort now. If he can't convince Amy and Marc to make them part of their team, or at least delay his execution before Chiara and Gerry, he will be gone this week or at the latest the next.

Fruitbat

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 07:09 am EditMoveDeleteIP
John...that makes a lot of sense. So do you Hermonie. I can see Roddy seperating from Chiara and seeking a new allinace with Gerry. Love this thread. There are so many options.

As all the reality shows progress they get better. Richard Hatches strategy no longer works. (picking an alliance and sticking with it)

Goddessatlaw

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 07:18 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Amy needs to engineer Chiara's ouster, and then allign herself with Marc, Roddy and whoever else they can swing in with them. I would wish for Jason, but I don't think his heart is going to allow him to abandon his alliance with Dani. Lisa would be great, but she's too honked at Roddy I think. Well, she might consider it, since she's using her head right now. Gerry is the lone wolf and may take the best offer (and actually might be trustworthy - not sure about that yet). Under just about any other circumstance, Jason and Dani are going to ride it to the top with Lisa being their wild card Will. I would love to see Lisa win. Dani's use for Amy is limited - two weeks max. If Amy wants to stay, and Marci too for that matter, they need to start making other arrangments.

Kminfinity

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 07:49 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Good points all!

My original scenario was from Dani's prespective.

In my mind, this game is now Dani(+ Jason's) to lose.

The question is, how much do each of the Supersized alliance trust Dani? If she can get Roddy and Chiara eliminated, and still maintain her relationships so that Jason, and Marci, and Lisa all think they are destined for the F2 with her, she can continue to control the game.

Howevr, I do think that Lisa and Amy are playing hard now, and Marc has shown that he isn't snowed easily. The big question is, when does Dani make her move and admit how she sees the endgame? If she and Jason keep quiet (assuming Jason is her F2 partner) then the rest will be doubting her loyalty. At some point she will need to be more specific. She may get Jason's permission to tell the big lie to Lisa that Lisa will be her F2, and even announce that to the house. Then, using Lisa (and Jason secretly) she will control three votes. With only 6 HGs left, that should be enough to control the game, if she can stay off the nominating block, and if there, she can keep from being evicted. The real blow to her power will be if anyone suspects her alliance with Jason and puts them both up.

In fact, a major bit of analysis has to be to factor in who would nominate who.

Assuming Roddy/Chiara are evicted, who would each of these nominate as HoH in 2 weeks?

Gerry : noms =
Amy : noms =
Marci : noms =
Lisa : noms =
Jason : noms =
Dani : noms =

I think that Dani risks the most if Gerry or Amy is HoH following the Roddy/Chaira evictions.

Krossd

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 08:02 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I'd like to see Lisa get to the final 2 and maybe even win (liked her from beginning). BUT I became REALLY worried last night when she wasn't able to do the math on the Eric - Amy vote! I mean, the 3 that voted to evict Eric (Marc, Dani, Jason), and the one who put them up (Jerry) wouldn't vote him back in seemed pretty elemental.

Goddessatlaw, what do you make of this oversight on Lisa's part?

I know it is good that she voted this way even if it wasn't a tie breaking vote. (They never know when the #'s will be told.) Also, it's all well and good (now) that Dani nabbed (helped) Lisa (good for both of them), but if she has to be told these elemental things..... well, I just dunno.

(Please, no Lisa bashing on this, just what gives with her not seeing this?)

Bbnan

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 08:21 am EditMoveDeleteIP
Krossd- I think that she might not have been so sure about Jason. As far as Lisa knew this week, the scolding Jason got from Chiara and Roddy may have worked.
Or it could have been symbollic..who knows?

Penpoint

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 08:54 am EditMoveDeleteIP
So far Danielle has been controlling her alliances very well, sort of flying under the radar and letting others do the dirty work. It's to her advantage to keep this large loose organization, making all of them think it's the good guys trying to get rid of the bad. Each week she should be able to pull strings to turn the others to eliminate who she wants them to. As has been noted already in this thread, eventually she is going to have to make some choices, and that will be the telling momemt for her. Will those who are left finally realize how she has been using them? And if so, will they still feel that this religious, "poor," sisterly, motherly, family woman deserves their continued support? I guess my question in this discussion of alliances and strategies, is: Is there any way to evict Danielle?

Spunky

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 09:50 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I agree, the alliance is getting too big and I'm afraid Danielle has her fingers in too many pies and one of them will make her choke...

She should work with Amy right now and make her see the logic with R/C up. The second step will be after the POV comp and she should concentrate on convincing the POV winner not to use it (why risk a good alliance member to go up) and just vote Roddy out. Lisa, Jason, Gerry could be her best bet to work with and with her own vote could break the tie. 4 - 3 to evict Roddy.
I really hope no tie, or else Chiara goes for sure. (I don't want to keep Chiara because I like her but because she would lose in the end anyways).

Eden

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 10:13 am EditMoveDeleteIP
They shouldn't realign to quickly. Move to another 4 person alliance and you are just in another frying pan. It is easy to think yourself too far ahead in the game. I don't see a need to start breaking up for a couple of weeks.

Does Roddy know that Lisa didn't vote for Eric's return? I think he counts her in his alliance. He also counts Jason. That's two votes he's miscalculated.

Roddy started his Amy campaign last night. The compliments were flowing like wine and Amy got eagerly drunk. I hope she was just enjoying that tipsy feeling and not becoming a Rodoholic. He can be quite an intoxicant when he wants to be.

Cameltoes

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 10:20 am EditMoveDeleteIP
There can't be a tie. 2 nominees and Amy can't vote. If it's Roddy/Chiara, they just need 3 Roddy votes. Danielle and Gerry are sure Roddy votes. Marcellas and Lisa are likely Roddy votes but they are also both peeved at Chiara so you never know. Jason - depends on his convos with Danielle. If she's unsure about getting 3 Roddy votes then he will vote Roddy. I think Roddy is gone if it's a R/C nom (and veto isn't used).

If Roddy goes, unless Gerry or Chiara gets HOH I think they will both be put on the block. Gerry would probably probably put up Amy and Chiara (maybe Lisa and Chiara). Chiara would put up Amy and Gerry. Of course this all assumes no shift in the status quo. I would imagine that if Roddy, Chiara and Gerry leave in that order that Lisa would be better off aligning herself with Amy and Marcellas since Danielle and Jason would be harder to beat at the end.

Fruitbat

Friday, August 16, 2002 - 12:32 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I agree Eden. Eveyone has to stay loose to avoid being a target.