The New Alliances
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Lufia

Saturday, August 17, 2002 - 07:07 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
If Roddy goes this week, Amy and Marc will be furious with Dani, Jason and Lisa. It might be wise for Dani to grab Chia to their side to tip the scale 4 to 3 as Marc/Amy and Gerry might team up. Face it, it could be 3 to 3 and someone will need Chia on their side. Dani just may want to get Marc out next as Chiara will be powerless with Roddy gone, she (Chia) has no supporters in the house once Roddy leaves. I could see Marc going, then Amy, then Chia. What do you guys think?

Wcv63

Saturday, August 17, 2002 - 07:13 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I think if Marc and Amy team up with Gerry then Gerry will be the target of the D/J/L alliance. I think Dani may bring Chiara along for a while but she may be a target in order to pacify Amy.

If Chiara gets HOH, I see her putting up Amy and Gerry or Amy and Marc trying to get Amy out again with a shut out.

So much luck is involved with HOH and POV it's hard to say how things could shift and morph in the future.

Mellbell416

Saturday, August 17, 2002 - 07:31 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I think that the Dani/Jason team would put up Chiara and Gerry up next to appease Amy and Marcellus - even though Chiara has no supporters, she's pretty wily and has pulled surprise moves before, and she would pose enough of a threat to warrant eviction (+ would keep Marc and Amy happy by booting her). I think Lisa would like to have her revenge at last on Chiara as well..

After that, I think that they would be looking to bust up the Marc/Amy alliance unless someone finally wises up to the Jason-and-Dani threat and nominates them instead.

Justshirley

Saturday, August 17, 2002 - 07:40 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
After the ouster of Roddy, the Dani, Jason and Lisa alliance is in the catbird's seat.

What this does is give D/J/L another week where they have absolutely no need to assume the burden of HoH.

Amy might be miffed that they didn't get rid of Chiara, but Amy can't be HoH, so who cares?

Marc already knows that Dani and Lisa think of Roddy as a huge threat, so I don't think he will be surprised that they voted him out or begrudge them that vote. Plus, if he gets HoH, he will most definitely put up ONE of Chiara (on Amy's behalf) or Gerry, so D/J/L will be able to let Marc take responsibility for ridding them of someone outside their own alliance.

That leaves Chiara. Chiara will know that D/J/L all voted to keep her and will believe that she is part of that alliance. She would most likely use her HoH nominations as a vehicle for revenge and nominate Amy and Marcellas.

D/J/L have got this thing rolling pretty for the next few weeks if they stick to their guns and get rid of Roddy NOW. They can just sit back and let the others eliminate each other for them.

I am mightily impressed with that trio.

Lufia

Saturday, August 17, 2002 - 07:58 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
JustShirley..........FANTASTIC.....oh gawd, I didn't even think of that but it is so perfect. This is good news and yes, this DOES seem how it will go down........

Sunlit

Saturday, August 17, 2002 - 08:21 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Don't count Roddy out just yet. We still have the week and Chiara's reactions to get through. He can still work this.

Shrike3000

Saturday, August 17, 2002 - 10:58 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
JustShirly, I think you are wrong. As the end gets closer and closer the HG's are going to start thinking more about strategy to win, than an voting out people that made them mad or they don't like. I see if Roddy does go out this week and the J/D/L alliance is exposed, they become big targets by whoever is left because their power has been revealed. I think getting rid of Roddy without Amy & Marc's agreement is a really bad move, possibly a game ending move for the J/D/L alliance (who I am rooting for).

Jaysgal

Saturday, August 17, 2002 - 11:09 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
If Amy is smart, which I am not very sure about at the moment, she woud make amends with Chiara now, just as Roddy did with Amy. So, if Chiara stays, Amy can make a pact with her to throw out Danielle or others.

I am quite confident that things will not work at all as Danielle intends it. But just in case, it is wise for Amy to patch things up. After all, Amy claims that she is not a vengeful person.

On another note: I had an odd dream last night. I saw Danielle evicted. And I uttered to her as she walked by: Next time, don't be so arrogant and full of yourself. It was an odd dream because I am hardly addicted to the show as most are here. LOL! :D

Justshirley

Saturday, August 17, 2002 - 11:42 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
Shrike, my whole point is that I think that, by the time Danielle, Lisa and Jason are done explaining the "why" of getting rid of Roddy to them, Amy and Marcellas WON'T be mad at them at all.

Amy and Marcellas are both quite insecure, especially in that house. It will not take much to convince them that they were only lied to in order to protect them from their own emotions. They are both very emotional, and they both KNOW that they are very emotional.

Amy especially will be VERY irritated at the prospect with another week of Chiara, but Lisa can help diffuse that situation by pointing out to Amy that she, too, is beside herself to have to spend one more moment in Chiara's presence, after what Chiara has done to her, but is "taking one for the team." Amy strikes me as one who is well used to having to spend time in real life around women she dislikes, and is well equipped to deal with the likes of Chiara. Expect a couple of weeks FILLED with behind-the-back catty comments from Amy. Snarkfest 2002.

And as far as Marcellas goes, I think, in the back of his mind, he is well aware of the fact that it could be Roddy going this week. He knows quite well what a huge threat Danielle thinks he is, and Marcellas himself was ready to boot Roddy last week before Roddy stirred up the backyard confrontation.

My only fear is that somehow, some way, something screwy will happen and POV gets used. I don't see the circumstances under which this could happen, but if it does, this game is changed, big-time.

Assuming (hoping, really) that they do get safely past POV, they are home free, because, unlike last week, this week all the needed votes are being cast by people who can be relied on to vote with their intellect instead of their emotions.

And the MOMENT that they are (again, hopefully) safely past the POV ceremony, D/J/L need to get to work on damage control. If POV is on Monday, that gives them until Thursday to make Marcellas and Amy feel part of the decision, instead of feeling like they were lied to.

It can be done. And I think far more easily than some on this board believe.

Spree17

Saturday, August 17, 2002 - 11:46 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
I dont see pov being used. Its like in prison when one guy is going to get shanked and one guy is going to try to warn him that guy gets pulled aside and set straight. Gerry wont use it at this point. Neither will roddy. marcy and kiki are only possible exceptions but dani might get kiki to lay it down

Justshirley

Sunday, August 18, 2002 - 12:37 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I guess my big fear re: POV is that Roddy is going to alert Marcellas and Amy to the possibility that Danielle is lying about voting out Chiara and will convince them to fight for POV to veto him out. Then, Roddy either agrees to vote out Chiara against whoever Amy substitutes for Roddy or, if he's as smooth as I believe he is, he'll try convince Amy that Danielle is dangerous and get her ok for him, Marcellas and Gerry to vote Danielle out this week and go after Chiara next week.

This is why it's super important to D/J/L that one of them wins POV. If they do, then they need to immediately go to A&M and explain that they are not going to use POV, but they are also planning on voting out Roddy.

This is showdown week between the two power players and they both know it. I really believe that Danielle will come out on top, but wouldn't be entirely shocked if it were Roddy, either.

I believe that Danielle has the edge for several reasons. Danielle isn't that much older than Amy, but Danielle is a mom, and I think Amy views her as a mother figure. And, remember, Amy's own mother told Amy she loves Danielle. Plus, Danielle can play up the whole "we're both women, we've both seen smooth-talking guys like Roddy before" angle.

Danielle will remind Amy that it was Roddy who nominated her and ensured her departure from the house. Amy will counter that he only did that because Chiara "made him." Danielle will point out that Roddy doesn't seem to have any problem cutting Chiara loose now, does he? She'll tell Amy that, when it came right down to it, the decision was Roddy's and does Amy really think that Roddy would let Chiara MAKE him do something he didn't want to do?

I can hear her now: "Not only is he responsible for getting you voted out of the house, and voted out unanimously, he's somehow got you believing that he's a great guy anyway! Wake up girl! Doesn't that say something to you about Roddy and the way he works his charm? That man cannot be trusted. He has been thick as thieves with that girl since the first week in the house, but now that his little clique is being voted out one by one, suddenly he never wanted to be with her in the first place? He is working you, and he is working you hard. You show him that you're smarter than that. Do not buy his slick little line."

Are you telling me you don't think this would convince Amy that getting rid of Roddy is the right thing to do? Danielle will have Amy thinking it was all her own idea by the time she's done. (I hope, I hope.)

One thing I AM sure about -- it's going to be fun as all get out for us to watch all the scheming.

And, after all, isn't it really all about us?

:~)

Groucho

Sunday, August 18, 2002 - 12:49 am EditMoveDeleteIP
If Danielle can convince Amy that Roddy needs to go, then she's in great shape.

If she can't (or won't), then she may be in trouble. Either she's got to vote Chiara out and put herself at risk by keeping Roddy, or she's got to break her word to Amy. Neither course would be particularly good for her.

Should be interesting to watch how it unfolds...

Dfwteddy

Sunday, August 18, 2002 - 02:25 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I agree with much of what JustShirley wrote. Lisa and Jason will have to play peacemaker with Amy, and I think they can do it. Marcellas won't be that surprised or upset with Roddy's departure because he has stated in DR that he knows Roddy is a threat. He knows that Roddy was the earlier target of the group when Josh derailed that vote. Neither Amy nor Marcellas, however, will like having been blindsided and may complain loudly about the lying and backstabbing. They'll begin to feel like outsiders, and they will be.

Amy and Marcellas are far too emotional to ever consider an alliance with Chiara, and Chiara will be far too angry, vindictive and (at that point) uninterested in the game to ever consider joining forces with Amy and Marcellas. These are three emotionally-stunted people who talk about strategy, but can't control their emotions enough to employ a strategy. Neither would Dani, Jason or Lisa ever consider a move to include Chiara -- there is just too much distrust to overcome. IMHO, at this point in the game Chiara is dead in the water unless she can win HoH next week, as anyone else is sure to nominate her and she will be evicted in a unanimous vote.

Gerry could follow Chiara or he might get his wish to make it to the final four. D/Ja/L might go after Gerry to appease M (but for what strategic benefit?), or it might be time for the threesome to cut M and A loose. Like the couples before them, IMHO M/A will be the most likely target. Can D/Ja/L win consecutive HoH and POV competitions to ensure M and A's consecutive evictions, or will they need to make a deal with Gerry for his vote/POV if either M or A wins HoH and nominates someone from the threesome? Can Marcellas swallow his disgust, think strategically and make a deal with with 'the giant?' Gerry would be open to it, but I can't see Marcellas going with it -- he'd rather be out of the game than deal with Gerry any longer.

Roddy's eviction this week will be high drama on Thursday as he (hopefully) gets his comeuppance on live TV; Chiara's eviction the following Thursday will be anti-climatic after a stressful week with her constant whining about how unfair everything is; but the real fireworks will begin when the HG numbers reach six. That's when the emotions, tempers and gameplaying will really begin. HoH and POV become critical at this point and everyone will go all out to win. The HGs will be tired of the game, tired of each other, and homesick for their families. Emotions will be raw, and only those with their 'eyes on the prize' will make it through those last couple of weeks.

Dare I make a prediction? Barring the use of POV:
EVICTED 08/22 -- Roddy
EVICTED 08/29 -- Chiara
EVICTED 09/05 -- Amy
EVICTED 09/12 -- Marcellas
EVICTED 09/19 -- Gerry
EVICTED 09/26 -- Lisa
FINAL 09/28 -- Jason wins over Danielle

It should be fascinating to watch!

Kminfinity

Sunday, August 18, 2002 - 09:22 am EditMoveDeleteIP
I agree with your prediction dfwteddy, with one possible change...

I think Gerry would go earlier, posssibly right after Kiki. Dani and Co. my think they can control Amy and Marci more easily than Gerry.

In addition to the problem with the PoV, the HoH must be careful how the noms are handled. For example, the decoy has gone more than once. A sharp player like Lisa could switch sides, for example, late in the game, and keep Gerry at the expense of booting Jason. I believe Dani really want to keep Jason, but I'm not so sure about Lisa. If she's smart, she'll get rid of him, because I think she'd be able to beat everyone else in an F2, even Dani

Allietex

Sunday, August 18, 2002 - 12:18 pm EditMoveDeleteIP
How's this for a scenerio? Next week Chi gets HOH. She noms Amy and Mar. Then Gerry gets POV and Mar tries to get Gerry to veto him. At the ceremony, Gerry tells him he would have vetoed him but it upset him so the first time he did it that he has decided not to insult him again. Then he vetoes Amy. Love to see it!