Archive through August 12, 2002
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Is this dumb thinking?:
Archive through August 12, 2002
Keiffer | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 03:49 pm     I agree with your point Gouraphic... you should eliminate the strongest player that is up for nommination. IMO if Josh survives being up against Tonya, then survives this week were EVERY HG had promised to vote him out he does become the strongest threat. You say that Josh can be gotten out at any time. Can he? He wasn't against Tonya, and until he blew it with Marcy he was on his way to saving himself this week. Every time Josh would go up no matter against whoever this same thing of being up against a "stronger" HG would come up. Who is not "stronger" than him. Who could you put him up against to insure he would be viewed as the stronger player? I maintain that no matter who they put Roddy up against next week or the week after there is no way he gets enough votes to stay. In my views that makes Josh the most important to leave. |
Wcv63 | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 03:50 pm     Keiffer your posts have given me hope. I will hold on to your words like a lifeline. Thank you! |
Gouraphik | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 04:18 pm     First, a clarification: I scanned through my posts in this thread to verify if I said that Josh could be gotten out "at anytime", implying that he was always going to be an easy target. I personally said nothing of the kind, although it's true that that sentiment does exist. I don't think I implied it, but if I did, I apologize...because I believe that he is a major threat (just not the most major one at this time) and a hard target. Now, on to the meat of the issue : In my 3 previous posts, my main points were: 1) Roddy is a greater threat than Josh. 2) No HG can be written off indefinitely. 3) Every HG is a threat to every other HG, and one of the better strategies is to strike at the strongest HG at that time. I guess that the main problem we're having right now is: what criteria do we use to define the strongest threat? Is the strongest HG who poses a threat to: a) our favored HG? b) most of the other HG's? c) a selected group or alliance of HG's? d) the entertainment value of the show? The list goes on. I generally focus on either choice b) or c), depending on the situation. The specifics on which HG to target depend heavily on who the HOH is, who they choose to nom, and on who wins the Veto. Marcellas violated my "commandments of strategy" , and allowed Josh to slip away. But that was then, and this is now. Chiara violated the "commandments" (or followed them, if she wants Roddy out), and now Roddy is up, although he really shouldn't have been. It's a tough choice, but it's better strategically to get rid of Roddy, whether you love him or not, unless you're not playing for yourself. I don't mean he'd automatically win if you evicted Josh...just that it wouldn't be the best strategy in this situation. If you want to get to the top 2, you wipe the strong out first. |
Mystery | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 04:21 pm     Goura, you mentioned what seems to me to be a most salient point. Roddy is up for eviction as kind of an accident. Dani, Jason et al have TALKED about putting him up "next time" but they haven't accomplished it; it took Chiara to do it. Josh has been nominated before and will be again, guaranteed; people don't like him. I'm having a hard time seeing such a guarantee for Roddy. |
Woodpecke® | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 04:27 pm     Hmmmmm. Was Eric a better player than Lisa? Tonya more a threat than Josh? Lori more scary than Amy? These commandments need reworking. Is there a stone tablet lying around Julie Chen's house? |
Keiffer | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 04:28 pm     What makes Roddy the biggest threat? *He has one person (chaira) on his side. *He has only won one out of five HoH's, and even then a number of people felt he had to cheat to do it (I personally don't think so). But he truly is not a major threat at HoH more than any other HG. *The remaining HG all think that Danny and them are together in an alliance therefor there are no people in the house for him to recuit to his and Chiara's side. ***In my mind the only way to define a threat is how hard is it to get rid of them when they are on the block. I still think that no matter which week you put him up Josh will be the most difficult to get voted out. Every week using the strongest competitor theory Josh would stay because no matter who you put him up against they would say "we can get Josh out anytime". |
Woodpecke® | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 04:31 pm     Keiffer is a great analyst of BB3. Nice job! LOL! |
Mystery | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 04:34 pm     Wood, I thought it was annoying when you kept making the same point over and over but now it's REALLY annoying to read "Keiffer is great!" over and over! How about a new tune? |
Woodpecke® | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 04:37 pm     I WAS EVEN BEGINNING TO ANNOY MYSELF. |
Keiffer | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 04:43 pm     . |
Keiffer | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 04:45 pm     I will say this though. If you just dislike Roddy because of the Al Gore syndrom (seems to be all the time teaching, or talking down) then I understand wanting him voted out this week. If you dislike Chiara, and want to see her cry for a day I understand. If you think Josh is good at stirring up the sh1t, and makes the TV show better so you want him to stay I understand. For those reasons I can see an argument to evict Roddy this week. Oh, and one other. There is a 1-4 chance that Eric comes back this week. If that happens then MAYBE he joins back with Roddy and Charia, and he can MAYBE get Lisa back on their side. In my mind those are a LOT of MAYBE's to plan for though. PS: I love your posts Woodpecker..... well the last couple anyway.... LOL..... keep up the good work! |
Sanfranjoshfan | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 04:58 pm     Keiffer - "What makes Roddy the biggest threat?" Biggest or bigger? I believe that Danielle is the biggEST threat in the house, but Roddy is the biggER threat of the two on the block. "***In my mind the only way to define a threat is how hard is it to get rid of them when they are on the block. " Therefore, if Roddy does not get evicted over Josh, then he will have proven that he was the bigger threat after all, right? :-) |
Bmh | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 05:00 pm     ya but Josh has already survived one nomination..this is Roddy's first time on the block |
Nessietessie | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 05:02 pm     I just think it will be better tv watching if Roddy goes. Think of Chiorra, she will be without her man. She may pursue Jason big time, to be in alliance with him. For all of you who dislike Josh, don't you think he makes great tv? I think he is very entertaining. |
Keiffer | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 05:05 pm     Just two differences between the two here. *Josh has already survived one nommination. *EVERY HG promised (gave their word) to evict Josh this time. If saving Josh makes every HG break their promises then he does have some juice on the block. Plus my argument that no one can seem to address directly. Which is that Josh could survive every nomm. if the threat test is given to the decision. Every single HG in there given this logic should be voted out before Josh if they are put up against him. Which in the LONG run makes him the biggest threat. Using the idea that Dan is the biggest actual threat in the house.... If Josh survives and next week is put up against Dan who should the HG evict? |
Bmh | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 05:06 pm     No..I have hated Josh from the beginning..his DR entries are cute but for the most part..I could do without him on the show.. I wanna watch Roddy self-destruct slowly..one by one is allies are evicted..first Tonya,then Eric,this thursday will be Josh..I cant wait till Josh is gone! |
Goddessatlaw | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 05:17 pm     CUT IT OUT, GUYS - you're SCARING ME!! What in the hell is this thread coming to - Keiffer, Woodpecker and Bmh all agreeing and talking sense? Wait - could this be the fourth horseman? If it is, does it mean that I'm the witness to God's final wrath? Do I have time to get my hair and nails done before the 7th Sign? Please, guys, this is what you're doing to me. Crap, man, I can't even find anything in here to yell at you about. When has that ever happened. Can't you disagree about something just a little bit? For me? |
Sanfranjoshfan | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 05:21 pm     "*EVERY HG promised (gave their word) to evict Josh this time. If saving Josh makes every HG break their promises then he does have some juice on the block." But if they hadn't made those promises, Chiara would never have put Roddy up. If the HGs that promised to evict Josh break their promises, it wouldn't be because Josh has any juice or to "save Josh"...it would be to "get Roddy". "Using the idea that Dan is the biggest actual threat in the house.... If Josh survives and next week is put up against Dan who should the HG evict?" I'll answer that when you answer the question *I* posed: "Therefore, if Roddy does not get evicted over Josh, then he will have proven that he was the bigger threat after all, right?" ;-) |
Keiffer | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 05:28 pm     Sorry Sanfran I thought my answer was implied in my responce.... "Just two differences between the two here. *Josh has already survived one nommination. *EVERY HG promised (gave their word) to evict Josh this time. If saving Josh makes every HG break their promises then he does have some juice on the block" Because you don't agree with my reaons on how Josh is the bigger threat regardless of who leaves this week doesn't mean I didn't answer. I would say that whichever between Rod and Josh stays will be the biggest threat next week because one of them could win HoH, and the other will be in the parking lot. Other than that if Roddy is put up against any other HG besides Josh I think he would go. If Josh gets put up with any other HG I couldn't say that. |
Gouraphik | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 05:31 pm     There's a crucial difference between what I say (or anybody else says) is the "best" strategy and what actually took place. When I said, partially in jest, that Marcellas and Chiara violated my self-described "commandments", I meant just that. Look at what their actions (or lack of actions) got them...a house full of strong and determined adversaries. You should wipe out the strong, and let only the weak (other than yourself) remain. Period. Marcellas "should" have been gone the first week, but he didn't, due to Gerry's use of the Veto. As Josh has maintained since he started what I call his "Truth & Reconciliation" campaign, they would have axed Marcellas if Gerry hadn't Vetoed him out. They chose to throw Amy up in his place, and got rid of Lori. It's a toss-up, but at the time, Lori was more of a threat. She was allied with the dreaded Gerry, and the 6-pack had the voting advantage at the time. I could go on and deconstruct the other nominations, but I won't. The point is that rarely has "the house" chosen to axe the stronger nominee...for whatever reason. Or, conversely, "the house's" definition on who was stronger differed with mine. Every HG is a threat to every other HG. It's like a mantra with me, I guess, but it bears repeating. There are a ton of good and logical reasons to say why any particular HG is a threat. That's not my issue right now. My issue was with which of the current nominees is the stronger...perhaps it's a toss-up, but I still maintain that Roddy wins by a nose. Writing off his advantage over Josh at HOH is risky. He's won it once before, whereas Josh hasn't. That doesn't mean Josh can't, but it shouldn't be thrown out of hand. Betting that Chiara will drag him down (which is very likely) is not enough to justify keeping Roddy...she'll be weak with or without him, since she can't be HOH next time. Roddy has skills (charm, seductive qualities) that Josh is deficient (compared to him) in, making him more likely to woo the returning HG to his corner. It's all situational. In my 3rd post (the one from 3:32 PM today), I stated that against anybody else, Josh should be the one going out. Against Roddy, no. It changes from week to week, because the situation changes from week to week. If Marcellas is HOH and Josh & Tonya are nommed and the Veto wasn't used, it's a different situation than if Chiara is HOH and Josh & Roddy are nommed and the Veto isn't used. Josh is hard to get out. Roddy is harder. By all rights, he shouldn't even have been up. It's not a case of assuming that Roddy's washed up. Nobody's washed up in this game until the game ends. It's a case of striking while the iron's hot. It's the best move for those HG's playing for themselves (or at least not playing for Roddy) to make. New targets will rise, and that's the nature of the game. If the HG's use the faulty logic of "we can get him out anytime" regarding Josh, then that's the way it'll be. It doesn't change the fact that this week, Roddy should be gone. Anyway, we'll see come Thursday. Let the players play. |
Gouraphik | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 05:53 pm     Actually, I think a lot of the "Josh will stick around forever" stuff has a lot to do with the prevailing "decoy theory" in the house. Josh survived more because of this faulty theory than anything else. The reason Josh slipped through the cracks the first time was because Marcellas made this error. Instead of using Tonya (the weakest of the 6-pack at the time) as a decoy, he should have nommed what he perceived to be his 2 biggest threats...namely, the top 4 of the 6-pack. He had already identified Roddy as a threat, so it should've been Roddy & Josh from then, even though he really wanted Josh gone. If somebody Vetoed out Roddy or Josh, then he should've thrown up Eric. If Eric used the Veto, then Lisa should've been up. He also should've pressed Amy to vote against Josh. In the end, while he could NEVER guarantee that Josh would be gone, at least one of his major adversaries would be gone. When I talk strategy, I like to focus on what the HG's actually have the power to do. Since an individual HG really doesn't possess enough power in this game to ensure a vote goes the way he wants (although he can try...witness the coercion strategy of Roddy & Chiara), one of the better routes is to set up the scenario so that one of your top 4 adversaries gets the boot. If Tonya was the biggest threat, she'd be just as hard to get out as anybody else. That's just the way the game goes. At this point, Roddy is the decoy. Ironically, he's also a greater threat than Josh. He should go, and the decoy theory should go with him...'cause it sucks, man! |
Keiffer | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 05:58 pm     What makes Roddy such a threat? I still do not see the power people seem to attribute to him. |
Mystari | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 06:05 pm     I think Roddy *COULD* have been a threat - just like John et al *COULD* have been a threat in this past Survivor. Thier common downfall? - Cocky attitudes |
Eden | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 06:27 pm     You don't seem to see what most people see in the game, Keiffer. Not a bash just an observation. What power does Josh have other than to annoy people? You say Roddy has only Chiara as an ally. Josh has NO ONE if Roddy is gone. Josh has no allies that might reenter the game. Roddy has Eric and perhaps, then, Lisa. And I think Tonya will do what Chiara wants so he would most likely garner her support. So which of the two is more powerful? Josh is whimpering and licking his wounds. He's burnt so many bridges he's covered in char. He has ZERO credibility with the other players either in the game or possibly reentering it. I don't see how anyone can see Josh as a threat. Annoying? Yes. A threat? To do WHAT? |
Sanfranjoshfan | Monday, August 12, 2002 - 06:30 pm     "*EVERY HG promised (gave their word) to evict Josh this time. If saving Josh makes every HG break their promises then he does have some juice on the block" But that promise was made under a threat by Chiara, not because they want to save Josh. Besides, anyone voting for Roddy's eviction is not necesarily a vote to "save Josh" but one to "get Roddy". "What makes Roddy such a threat? I still do not see the power people seem to attribute to him." Right now he has the power of popularity and the power of NOT being like Josh, the one HG that has burned all his bridges and made scenes, thus making the entire household stressful and difficult. I think Roddy's demeaner is a very good tactic....the more likeable he makes himself, the more likely he is to stay, especially when so many of the HG are voting emotionally rather than startegically. Don't get me wrong...I like Roddy. I do not like Josh. But...if I was in the house (knowing what I know from being out here!) I'd feel more threatened playing this game against Roddy than Josh. Still...I think the HG will vote emotionally and Josh will go. |
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