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Archive through December 14, 2009

Reality TVClubHouse Discussions: Survivor ARCHIVES: Survivor XIX - Samoa ~ 2: Survivor XIX - Samoa: Spoilers: Speculate the Final Three Voting Tally --- Just for Fun!: Archive through December 14, 2009 users admin

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Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Saturday, December 12, 2009 - 10:00 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
Jezz suggested that we might have fun speculating how the voting will tally up by the jury for the Final 3 that we know are going to be Russell, Natalie and Mick. I agree that it will be fun, so join in and give us your speculation and tell us why, if you want to add that with it. If you just want to give the tally and no reasoning, that's fine, too. Will be interesting to see how right or wrong we are when all is said and done on Sunday evening.

Natalie - 1st
Russell - 2nd
Mick - 3rd

Laura, Kelly, and Monica --- girl thing, Natalie
John and Erik --- boy thing, Russell
Jaison --- Mick (guessing anger against Russell and Natalie)
Shambo --- probably Russell
Brett and Dave ... this is where I have trouble. Brett has been really close to Laura, and will probably vote her way - Natalie. That leaves Dave as my swing vote, and if he voted Russell it would be a tie...but I just don't see a tie, so I'm going to say he was swayed at Ponderosa to go with Natalie.

Natalie 5
Russell 3
Mick 1

But......I'm probably way off base!!!

Jezzedout
Member

09-07-2006

Saturday, December 12, 2009 - 10:57 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Jezzedout a private message Print Post    
Thanks for setting this up Ginger!!

I may change this after Monica's and Shambo's post-boot interviews come out, but based on what we know right now...

I've got Natalie winning with four votes from Erik, Kelly, Monica and Laura. Kelly, Monica and Laura -- it's the girl power thing. Erik could go a different direction (in which case I think his vote will fall for Russell) but he has praised Natalie in a few of his interviews although it's not entirely clear how much he knew at the time and how much he discovered from watching the show (obviously post-vote).

I've got Mick in 2nd place with three votes, from John, Brett and Jaison (it's the smart guy thing)

I've got Russell in last place with votes from Dave (nod to gameplay) and Shambo (loyalty).

Now, this is based on Russell blowing his jury speech, as is proposed by the spoilers. In the unlikely case the jury votes purely on gameplay and strategy, I think the end result could end up as...

Russell with six votes from Erik, John, Dave, Brett, Shambo and Jaison.

Natalie with three votes from Laura, Monica and Kelly.

Mick with no votes.

Curious to see other predictions.

ETA...I'd be happy with any one of the three winning, which is unusual as there is almost always someone you don't want to win in the finals on Survivor. But all three have played well. They all had different games, and each seems to have excelled in different aspects of the game, but IMHO each one is worthy of the win.

Juju2bigdog
Member

10-27-2000

Saturday, December 12, 2009 - 6:31 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Juju2bigdog a private message Print Post    
Voters, remember to post some introductory phrasing prior to announcing your choices, so they don't show up in New Messages.

1. Natalie - Laura, Eric, Kelly, Monica, Dave, Brett
2. Russell - Jaison, Shambo
3. Mick - John

Tntitanfan
Member

08-03-2001

Saturday, December 12, 2009 - 6:37 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Tntitanfan a private message Print Post    
spoiler spoiler TNT's favorite color is orange because of the Tennessee Titans..

Natalie for the win with no clue about the guys!

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 6:09 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
START YOUR POST OUT WITH AS MANY WORDS THAT DON'T GIVE ANYTHING AWAY TO THOSE THAT DON'T WANT TO BE SPOILED

Thanks, Juju .... for reminding us of that. I hope my first sentence was long enough that by the time I got to the F3, the "New Messages" had run out.

Maryg
Member

07-20-2009

Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 7:29 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Maryg a private message Print Post    
Ok, starting post with as many words as possible to avoid spoiling those that don't want to be spoiled.....

Russell--nobody votes for Russell
Mick--John, Jaison, Shambo
Natalie--everyone else

Adven
Member

02-06-2001

Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 7:48 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Adven a private message Print Post    
Lalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalaa. I say Russell wins. The fact the jury knows he has money will work against him, but he has so thoroughly dominated the game that it will be hard to suggest Natalie is more deserving. She's very likable, though, so it will be close. I don't think Mike has a chance. Russell will get the votes of those who value game playing and Natalie will get those who vote for who they like.

Russell: 5
Natalie: 3
Mike: 1

Bonbonlover
Member

07-13-2000

Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 8:56 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Bonbonlover a private message Print Post    
Lalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalaa

Adven ... I don't think Mike has a chance either. The jury might not know him.

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 9:03 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
That's alright Adven ... we knew what you meant (LOL).

Lookieloo
Member

08-12-2009

Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 9:04 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Lookieloo a private message Print Post    
I'll give it a go here, since most of what i type IS gibberish, i shouldn't have a huge problem with it. Just so it doesn't show up in the new messages. With that in mind, i gotta admit, i've never seen anything in new messages. I didn't even know there was a place called new messages. See how much gibberish i can create with one little idea??? Cool, huh! it's a gift :-)

now, on to my speculations.

1. Mick.....he's likable, won immunity and has come close a time or two. Probably a good speaker with the jury. Hasn't made any real enemies.

2. Natalie.....Although she is likable, she did go against the girlie alliance. She's worked hard at challenges, but i don't think the men will vote for her.

3. Russell.....i think he will blow his own horn too much and in a too aggressive way that noone will want to give him any credit for it. I think he will, in his speech and answers, make more enemies than friends. Possibly one vote from Shambo.


*if this does show up in the ellusive 'new messages', i'm terribly sorry*

Juju2bigdog
Member

10-27-2000

Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 9:52 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Juju2bigdog a private message Print Post    
Lookieloo, your "now on to my speculations" was probably a long enough intro. If you want to see what the New Message feature is all about, go up to the top of this page and hit the link that says Search. Then choose the feature that say New Messages since I last checked. Or you can chose in the last day or three days, or any number of hours. Then hit the Search button at the bottom of that screen, and you will see what we are talking about. Once you start using New Messages, it does become sort of addictive, and you can spend ALL of your free time here.



Kookliebird
Member

08-04-2005

Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 10:10 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Kookliebird a private message Print Post    
On to my speculations...

Natalie - Laura, Kelly, Monica,
Russell - Jaison, Shambo, Eric, Dave,
Mick - John, Brett

Lookieloo
Member

08-12-2009

Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 10:48 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Lookieloo a private message Print Post    
ohhhh thanks for the info, Juju2bigdog! I will check it out :-)

Sportsfan
Member

09-03-2007

Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 11:07 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Sportsfan a private message Print Post    
I think it will be:

1. Mick-John, Brett, Eric, Dave
2. Natalie-Laura, Kelly, Monica,
3. Russell- Shambo

Jezzedout
Member

09-07-2006

Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 11:39 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Jezzedout a private message Print Post    
(Contains spoiler info, don't read if you don't want to know)...

Hey Sportsfan... where do you think Jaison's vote will fall?

Pamy
Member

01-02-2002

Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 11:55 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Pamy a private message Print Post    
LOL Bonbon!!

I think Natalie wins this thing and Russ comes in 2nd, Mick no votes. Many on the jury are too bitter to give him credit for his gameplay. Laura and Monica bonded with Nat.

Jezzedout
Member

09-07-2006

Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 2:02 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Jezzedout a private message Print Post    
(Contains spoiler info, don't read if you don't want to know)...

A few more thoughts...

I've been rewatching the all of the previous episodes and it seems more and more apparent that Natalie is going to take first. They have highlighted her social game; she's done respectably in challenges; is well aligned within her own tribe as well as with the majority of Galus; and even Russell acknowledges her part in their partnership (although rarely giving her credit for being more than "stupid", but still, this is Russell we're talking about so I won't read too much into it). It's been stated several times that Natalie is underestimated, and perhaps that is Russell's achilles (sp?) heel that he underestimates the power of her social game. I'd love to see her pull out a challenge win before the end of the game. There is even some indication that Natalie is giving forethought to her jury presentation (episode 3 or 4, I think) and I see no indication that Natalie will not be able to present a strong case for her type of gameplay. Now, call this crazy, but I even think perhaps the shot of Natalie with her yellow panties on the tree in the last episode may have been a clue representing that Natalie is somehow "clean" and will be viewed by the jury that way. I don't think any of the jury members hold her personally responsible for their own demise, while at least a few do seem to give her credit for her role as Russell's "wingman", a term Natalie herself used to describe her part in the alliance with Russell way back in episode 2 or 3.

I wasn't a fan of Natalie in episode 1, but she's steadily grown on me throughout the season and I think is as worthy a winner as any we've seen. She's played a different game than Russell, but her approach to gameplay is no less valid than his and in some ways is smarter as she's played a far superior social game than he has. Very controlled, very subtle, touching on all elements - outwit, outplay, outlast.

Seamonkey
Moderator

09-07-2000

Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 3:01 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Seamonkey a private message Print Post    
I think I fixed TNT's post enough :-)

Tntitanfan
Member

08-03-2001

Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 10:56 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Tntitanfan a private message Print Post    
Thanks a million, Sea! I forget about the "new messages" feature because I never use it!

Sportsfan
Member

09-03-2007

Monday, December 14, 2009 - 4:21 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Sportsfan a private message Print Post    
Ooops how could I forget Jaison! I think he will vote for Mick.

Akwarlord47
Member

06-26-2007

Monday, December 14, 2009 - 8:32 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Akwarlord47 a private message Print Post    
Well.... The idea of who will actually win has been spinning in my head for weeks now.


Russell 6 votes (because he has Outplayed, Outwitted and Out Lasted all the others)

Natalie with the rest (Because some folks just really are mad at Russell)

and Mick Sorry to say none...

I'm sure I've gotten it all wrong...I usually do.

Bonbonlover
Member

07-13-2000

Monday, December 14, 2009 - 8:53 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Bonbonlover a private message Print Post    
We saw a confessional with Natalie sitting on a rock talking about aligning and following Russell since Day1 ... she said hey if I have positioned myself for 2nd so be it. I can't remember if that was in the show or if it was one of the deleted scenes which we saw on CBS.com but I think they showed it to us for some reason... IRONY... she probably does win.

Csnog
Member

07-18-2002

Monday, December 14, 2009 - 5:57 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Csnog a private message Print Post    
This is a spoiler so please don't go further.

Natalie was shown at the merge spinning to the girls about Erik..

Natalie played a larger part than we think in guiding votes, than even Russell I would think, because they were on edge with Russell.

Natalie had their trust.

The jury members will NOT give Russell votes simply because he couldn't keep his mouth shut about his income.

I see this as a bitter jury despite their bad play.

When I say bad play, I mean that they never had a chance to rid themselves of those they didn't like, so succumbed to being outplayed by the Foa Foa.

They were short sighted but will NOT accept that fact.

Natalie will be looked upon as manipulating them as a somewhat trusted person and so will be given credit for it.

Natalie also attached herself to Russell and why not?

Everyone has to have someone, (Brett had Laura) and she (Natalie) chose NOT to go against the tide of those foolish enough to not see what was going on.

She did outlast.

Russell played the best gamewise at manipulating people....He did NOT play a social game.

Mick will probably be seen as a pawn of Russell's who also is a doctor.

The bitter jury will vote for the pharmaceutical sales girl..Natalie said she knew how to adapt to her surroundings.

Something others didn't.

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Monday, December 14, 2009 - 6:07 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
This has really turned out to be an exciting thread! It will be fun after we see who actually wins, and what the voting tally was, to come back and see if anybody really hit it on the head.

Jezzedout
Member

09-07-2006

Monday, December 14, 2009 - 6:33 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Jezzedout a private message Print Post    
CSnog, agree with your post. Well stated.

Ginger... totally agree. This season and the spoiler info have been particularly fun! I'm ready for the finale!!! (-: