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Jezzedout
Member
09-07-2006
| Monday, December 14, 2009 - 7:02 pm
From TV Guide.com... TVGuide.com: At this point in the game, who do you expect or hope to see make it to the finale? Monica: I would love to see Brett take it all, I think Brett and Natalie are probably my strongest contenders. From Zap2It... Zap: Speaking of Russell, do you think he's playing a good game? Monica: I definitely think Russell is playing a good game. He went in and he shifted the numbers in Foa Foa's favor. We never saw that coming. We definitely underestimated Russell's game. Has he played a good game to win a million dollars? No. He's furthered his position in the game but I don't think that he really invested in the social game, in making sure he can get those jury votes. If he makes the Final Two, Three, whatever it is, I think he's going to have to make some strong points to sway the jury in his favor. Zap: You don't think he'd get votes rewarding his good game play, for playing all the Galu people? Monica: No, I don't. He may get some votes, but I don't think he'll get a majority of the votes by just playing that card. Zap: Out of the people left, who is playing the best game? Monica: There are two different aspects to it. The best game for getting to the finals? Definitely Russell. The best game for jury votes? I'd say a toss-up between Natalie and Brett. Looking at them, they're the only ones who have made some strong moves to ensure their positions and they're so likable. A combination of strong strategic moves mixed with the likability that they have. ------------------------------------------------- The indication from Monica is that if it were down to Russell and Natalie -- and Brett (her first choice) was out of the running -- she would favor Natalie over Russell. Whether she's on point with her belief that the rest of the jury feels similarly is another question that remains to be seen, however, I think it's pretty clear that Monica's vote will go (or already went) to Natalie.
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Jezzedout
Member
09-07-2006
| Monday, December 14, 2009 - 7:28 pm
More from Monica From Reality TV World... Reality TV World: You didn't seem to have a lot of influence over your alliance's decisions during the game, so did you really feel you would have that much sway over their jury votes or were you just bluffing? Monica: No... At least two of the people are strong members of my alliance. So, I knew that I definitely had an impact when it came to the jury. Reality TV World: Who are the two strong members you're talking about? Monica: The people that were there at this point, it would have been Laura and [Kelly Sharbaugh]. ----------------------------------------------- Many posters have theorized that Monica, Laura and Kelly will all write the same name for the final vote and Monica's comments seem to support that theory. Hard to say whether it's because Monica will have an "impact" on them while at Ponderosa, or more likely, because they are all equally bitter towards Russell. Either way it looks like a potential block of three votes to one finalist.
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Grooch
Member
06-16-2006
| Monday, December 14, 2009 - 10:17 pm
Honestly, who is Mike?
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Grooch
Member
06-16-2006
| Monday, December 14, 2009 - 10:21 pm
Whoops, never mind. I must have misread 'Mick" as "Mike" in an earlier post.
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Scarebaby
Member
07-31-2005
| Thursday, December 17, 2009 - 11:36 pm
I really need someone to explain to me why Natalie is so likeable, and why she might deserve to win. I find her annoying, cloying and grating, and I haven't seen her do anything much in the game besides hang onto Russell. There seems to be consensus here that it would be inoffensive if she won. So how come?
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Tntitanfan
Member
08-03-2001
| Friday, December 18, 2009 - 5:24 am
Tra la la la la and so forth! She has worked hard at challenges. She has been utterly loyal to the person she swore to be loyal to. She started Galu's slippery slide to infamy by instigating Erik's demise. She has been - at least at far as we have seen - friendly and pleasant to everyone.
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Csnog
Member
07-18-2002
| Friday, December 18, 2009 - 9:55 am
SPOILER....ALERT.......... That's been the problem with having Russell as the so called star. Others didn't get much air time. We had to get tiny bits of information and go back looking for them. Natalie saw the demise of Marisa and Betsy....Why push when you can join and outlast? Natalie won that flag challange, Manipulated the Galu women with southern charm that they didn't know what hit them when she whispered Erics name and they didn't question her. Last night she and Russell knew full well why she chose Brett first. Without Natalie, Russell could have been toast long ago. Both Mick and Jaison could have made big moves and taken Russell out but we didn't see it if they did try.. Heck, we didn't see anything about Brett until last week and only found out he was aligned with Laura since day one. Everyone attaches themselves to someone..They have to. Russell did to Natalie. Jaison and Mick to Russell.
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Jezzedout
Member
09-07-2006
| Friday, December 18, 2009 - 10:51 am
IMHO, Natalie has played a nearly flawless social game. She has multi-layered alliances, she is universally liked by both tribes and she has managed to maintain Russell's trust to the end (not necessarily easy - just ask Marisa, Betsy, Ben and Ashley!). More importantly, she wasn't so far under the radar that nobody realized she was playing. It's been noted by multiple booted players that Natalie was working her role as Russell's wingman. She hasn't been a challenge monster, but she was never singled out as a poor performer (e.g. Monica, e.g. John, e.g. Ashley) and in fact, was spotlighted for her standout effort in several challenges -- the swing for the flags challenge and the hold the heavy wood challenge being the two most notable, but I would also point out her solid showing in the stack the blocks challenge where her ability to balance on her tribemates' shoulders and stack the very high blocks were integral to Foa Foa's win in that challenge. It's been a really interesting end game this season because while Russell (FYI, I would say I'm a fan), despite all his bravado about how it's all him and he's the one in charge -- Russell could not have gotten to the F4 without Natalie, Mick and Jaison. And Natalie, Mick and Jaison I don't believe would have made it to the F4 had they gotten rid of Russell earlier. Natalie, Russell, Mick and Jaison are four spokes to a wheel. If you remove one spoke the wheel begins to bend and eventually collapses. Russell, however, is sitting pretty because he has an F2 alliance with each of the other three Foa Foans, and unless Russell has played a better social game than we've been shown, he'd be a pretty good pick for any of the other three Foa Foans to go up against for the million. But back to Natalie... Pretty, young girls have a tendency not to make it very far in Survivor. Either they fall by the wayside early in the game when strength is a valued commodity and their lack of it makes them easily expendable, or they try to develop too many protective alliances and get voted out for being too shifty and coming on too strong. Natalie's survival in the game is the result of her remarkably controlled sense of gameplay. I'm a regular reader of David Bloomberg's "Why ___ Lost" series at RNO, which he bases on his rules for succeeding in Survivor, developed over the 18 seasons. This year's article is titled "What Samoan Survivors Should Have Learned" (see link at the bottom of this post). Analyzing Natalie's gameplay against Bloomberg's rules for playing and succeeding at Survivor illustrates how well Natalie has played the game. 1) Did she scheme and plot? Yes, absolutely. She aligned with Russell on day one while also cultivating extended loose alliances / interpersonal relationships with pretty much everyone around her. She's very insulated heading into the finals and her name was never brought up in this last vote so she's well positioned at this point. 2) Did she scheme and plot too much? No, she left that up to Russell. In fact, when Mick and Jaison tended to get nervous, and Russell was like a bull in a china shop, Natalie seemed to always keep her cool. 3) Was she flexible? Yes, Natalie made decisions and took action as it benefited her position at that moment and was open to shifting strategy when the situation called for it (or Russell demanded it!). 4) This rule says "don't let your emotions control you." Unless Natalie decides to keep Brett over one of her original tribemates as we get closer to F3, I think it can be said that Natalie has made strategic versus emotional decisions throughout the game. 5) Rule 5 says "Pretend To Be Nice/Keep Your Politics and Controversial Beliefs To Yourself." Natalie doesn't have to pretend to be nice... she is nice!! And although we've seen a little more of her spiritual side in the past few episodes, it doesn't sound like she was holding daily prayer circles around camp or overtly annoying people. And in times when she did show that side of herself, it was with people like Laura and Brett who shared her beliefs. So I think Natalie does pretty well with this rule also. 6) Don't be too much of a threat. Uh, I don't think this was a problem for Natalie. She wasn't viewed as a physical threat and she was in a minority alliance so she wasn't any kind of a threat. Sub-Rule A - Provide food and don't be lazy around camp. From what we've been shown Natalie did provide food (snails, crabs, a rat) and wasn't singled out as lazy. Sub-Rule B - Be ready for the jury. I think Natalie has definitely considered what her arguments to the jury will be should she get there. We've seen her talk about it on some of the video clips on CBS.com. She is well liked by the majority of the jury and showed enough gameplay that there are a number of jury members that will, I predict, view her a more palatable vote than Russell. I've been saying for a while that I believe Russell should win this season, but I believe Natalie will win this season. However, after analyzing Natalie's gameplay against Bloomberg's rules for the game I realize she has in fact played a nearly perfect game. If you analyzed Russell's gameplay the same way, Russell would fail against a number of the rules. Russell has definitely schemed and plotted too much (rule 2) and as a result was seen as being shifty and shady by the majority of his competitors. While Russell did try to pretend to be nice (rule 5), he was never able to keep up the ruse very long and his true colors shined through. He is not well liked. He was absolutely seen as a threat (rule 6), particularly after he started showing his hidden immunity idols to everyone! And last but not least, the jury. It all comes down to the jury and Russell was largely responsible for the demise of every person on the jury. But beyond that, he is not well regarded. Yet to be seen is whether his aggressive gameplay will be rewarded or if he failed so miserably at the social aspect of the game that the grand prize will go to someone more likeable, or someone regarded as "more worthy" of the million dollar prize. I predict Natalie will receive the majority of votes. Link to Bloomberg's article "What Samoan Survivors Should Have Learned" at RealityNewsOnline... http://www.realitynewsonline.com/cgi-bin/ae.pl?mode=1&article=article10595.art&page=1
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Alaginger
Member
07-11-2002
| Friday, December 18, 2009 - 11:14 am
Wow, Jezz........you keep this up and we will become noted as a very analytical spot to check out, like Survivor Blows has been for a long, long time. Great summary and analysis!!!
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Jezzedout
Member
09-07-2006
| Friday, December 18, 2009 - 11:43 am
Thanks Ginger! This forum has been surprisingly quiet this season. Not sure if Russell drove everyone away, or if they have migrated to Sucks, Blows, and the other forums where missyae is posting. Consider this my attempt to ramp up the dialogue on this forum. 
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Pamy
Member
01-02-2002
| Friday, December 18, 2009 - 7:10 pm
Jezz, I used to love those Why they lost! When I quit smoking I had to change some habits to control urges in the beginning. One thing I used to do was print those out and read them on break with a cig and diet coke! I dont have to worry about triggers anymore so thanks for reminding about them! I agree with all you wrote
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Scarebaby
Member
07-31-2005
| Friday, December 18, 2009 - 11:39 pm
Jezz, I love your analysis of Nat's game! The only thing I would take issue with is the fact that Russell made alliances with all the "dumb girls" way back in the first episode, not just with Natalie. There was no brilliant effort on her part there, she just seems to be the "dumb girl" Russell chose to keep around. And yes, he chose to keep her because she didn't question him, never made him feel threatened, did his bidding. So, for those behaviors she was smart. We'll see what she has to say for herself at final tribal. If she outlines her case as well as you did, she should win!
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Jezzedout
Member
09-07-2006
| Saturday, December 19, 2009 - 9:51 am
Hey Scarebaby, Glad you liked the analysis It's an interesting point you raise. I think you're responding to my statement that Natalie aligned with Russell on day one, and you're arguing that Russell made alliances with all the "dumb girls" so it doesn't really show any brilliant strategy on Natalie's part. My rebuttal would be this. While your statement is correct, I made my original statement about Natalie aligning with Russell on day one as an example of Natalie's adherence to Bloomberg's rule #1, meaning did she scheme and plot. Yes, Russell initiated alliances with all the "dumb girls" that day, but if Natalie wasn't scheming and plotting also, she might not have accepted Russell's advances. Still, the question was, did Natalie scheme and plot? The better example might have been to highlight her role in Erik's blindside. While Erik's ouster, I believe, resulted from a variety of factors all coming together at the same time, it would be hard to dispute that Natalie's conversation with the Galu women played a large role in the plan coming together. So, did Natalie scheme and plot? Yes. We'll see what she has to say for herself at final tribal. If she outlines her case as well as you did, she should win! I'm super curious for final tribal to see what the F3 will say to the jury, and what questions the jury will have for them. I fear that Russell has underestimated the jury. He always says he's "controlling the show" but the inevitable truth of Survivor is that the jury will assume final control. We've seen time and again that bitter juries don't necessarily give the money to the person who played the best game. And I do think this jury is bitter. Thanks for debating!!

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Jezzedout
Member
09-07-2006
| Saturday, December 19, 2009 - 9:58 am
Hey Pamy! Congrats on kicking the habit!!! Sounds like it was a few seasons back so good for you that you've managed to succeed so well!! Love, love, love Bloomberg's series. I've read it faithfully since Season 2 or 3. I love the strategic component of Survivor and Bloomberg's analysis is always so insightful in that regard. I loved that Stephen from Tocantins was a regular reader of Bloomberg. He mentioned in interviews that he used Bloomberg's approach when playing, and look how far it got him! The only thing Bloomberg's approach can't account for is someone else playing as flawlessly as you but being more likeable! That's why Stephen lost LOL!
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