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Alaginger
Member
07-11-2002
| Thursday, December 10, 2009 - 7:38 pm
Thanks to Survivor Fever for transcript. Will get pictures up tomorrow after doctor's appointment and rehearsal. (Busy! Busy! Busy!) ********************************** Transcript: Jeff Probst: Next time on Survivor... Natalie: I'm in... Mick: Exactly right.. <Brett, Mick and Natalie shown making a pact> Russell: Maybe there is something going on with Mick, Natalie and Brett. Russell <talking to sleeping Jaison in shelter at night> : We're gonna have to blindside everybody. Jeff Probst: With only two episodes left the alliances are shifting. Russell <in camera confessional> : This is the team, me, Jaison, we are running the show. Jaison: Let's do it. Mick <in camera confessional> : There's a chance that Russell is lying to me and it scares the hell out of me.
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Alaginger
Member
07-11-2002
| Friday, December 11, 2009 - 6:13 am
Jeff's Blog ************************* Man, I gotta say… another awesome episode. Yeah I know I’m biased, but come on, that was a great show! And now there is absolutely no debate. Foa Foa has done it. They have come back from an eight to four deficit and now are in charge of the game. Think of the odds Vegas would have given you on that not happening. Well, Vegas wouldn’t actually give you any odds, since they know the show has already been taped and they know that I would have emptied my bank account to take that bet and would now be retired living in Palau. FIRST IMMUNITY CHALLENGE Nobody ever said all challenges would be created equal. If there is one consistent element of Survivor challenges it’s that they’re typically not things you can practice at home. When’s the last time anybody went bowling… using a coconut for the ball. But it was a little bit exciting, right? I loved Jaison pacing around the deck “visualizing” his final immunity winning toss. But hey, it paid off and kept Jaison in the game one more day. NATALIE DOES HER LAUNDRY It was a small moment but I hope you caught it as it speaks to the essence of Survivor. Natalie, in the midst of living on an island with a group of strangers, battling physically, emotionally, and socially for a million dollar prize still takes the time to wash and then hang her underwear on a branch in an attempt to keep them clean. You don’t get that moment on any other show. FIRST TRIBAL COUNCIL I hated to see ole Danger Dave go home. It’s no secret I root for the guy. He should be proud he hung in there a long time in a very tough game, but now it’s jury time, brotha. Monica is a risky player. All she had to do was say, “If you say Dave, I say Dave” and let it go. But Monica was playing to WIN, not take second. I appreciate that kind of play very much. The fact that it didn’t work is irrelevant. You have to be willing to make those kinds of moves to have any shot of winning. THIS IS HOW YOU PLAY SURVIVOR When Russell began to get worried about Mick turning on him he made a statement that speaks to the kind of game he is playing: Russell: “That worries me that he’s gonna send me home, cause that’s what I would do.” That sentence, especially those last six words, “cause that’s what I would do” is the absolute essence of how you should always play Survivor. John Nash, the dude that was the inspiration for the movie, “A Beautiful Mind” spelled it out clearly in his thoughts on game theory. He said you must always make your best move based on the assumption that the other person is making their best move. That means you have to get inside their head, think what their best move is, assume they will make that move and based on that make your best move. When Russell says, “cause that’s what I would do” that is precisely what he is doing. That is how you have to play Survivor. It’s one of the main reasons Russell has been so successful in this game. He is playing an extremely intelligent game. Don’t judge that book by its cover or the lack of a tooth here or there, the guy is putting that little pirate head to good use. SECOND IMMUNITY CHALLENGE Hmm… might as well just use the same line I used when describing the first immunity challenge: “Nobody ever said all challenges would be created equal. If there is one consistent element of Survivor challenges it’s that they’re typically not things you can practice at home. When’s the last time anybody…. had to jump on a board to launch a bag into a basket 12 feet in the air.” Thirty-three days of no food reduced Monica’s body weight to such a low level that the poor thing didn’t weigh enough to even get the bag close to the basket above her head. Worse news, Brett won immunity. It forced her into a desperate position – convince two people from Foa Foa to turn on one of their own. AND SO SHE TURNED UP THE HEAT Monica did a good job of stirring up the dust. She did such a good job that it almost worked. And she brought up a topic that doesn’t get much attention but is often a major factor in who ends up winning the game… I CAN MAKE OR BREAK YOU ON THE JURY Okay, you want insight, here’s some insight. When Monica uttered those words to Russell: “I can make or break you on the jury” it was a million dollar threat. Mark my words… A million dollar THREAT. When someone is voted out and joins the jury, there is absolutely nothing to stop them from talking to other jury members and trying to influence the vote at the final tribal council. A disgruntled jury member, (wait is that redundant?) could easily influence another jury member simply by making up a story that never happened and attribute it to someone who has made it to the final. In fact, it’s possible that one jury member could influence an entire jury. Even if we could keep the jury separated right up until tribal council, they could still talk and whisper to each other. So, what this means is you have to play an even better social game than it might appear. You have to develop such strong personal relationships that you are “lie proof” and that is not easy to do… but it is achieveable. This season is still waaaaay up in the air. So many different ways it could turn depending on who makes it to the final. We have two weeks left. Next Thursday and then the finale the following Sunday. Stay with us… it’s gonna be good.
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Alaginger
Member
07-11-2002
| Friday, December 11, 2009 - 11:10 am
Here's the pics that go with the transcript: *********************** Natalie: I'm in... Mick: Exactly right..
<Brett, Mick and Natalie shown making a pact>
Russell: Maybe there is something going on with Mick, Natalie and Brett.
Russell <talking to sleeping Jaison in shelter at night> : We're gonna have to blindside everybody. Jeff Probst: With only two episodes left the alliances are shifting.
Russell <in camera confessional> : This is the team, me, Jaison, we are running the show.
Jaison: Let's do it.
Mick <in camera confessional> : There's a chance that Russell is lying to me and it scares the hell out of me.
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Alaginger
Member
07-11-2002
| Friday, December 11, 2009 - 12:00 pm
From an interview with Dave at Reality News Online (RNO). I thought you guys might be interested in seeing another player's take on Laura vs Shambo. Obviously Dave didn't see it the way John did (interesting). ************************************* RNO: What was the most eye-opening thing you saw on TV that you didn’t know about while you were there? Dave: I didn’t know how they would cut and paste things together to make something that didn’t happen appear to have happened. RNO: Such as? Dave: Laura didn’t tell Shambo [on the recap episode] to get out of her light when she was weeping on the beach. That was bogus. Laura was never anything but kind to Shambo. RNO: When I watched it, I thought Laura was talking about Shambo’s personality, like to bring out the sunshine in herself. Dave: No, she was talking about sun. There was a point where we hadn’t seen the sun for almost a week. It was just raining, it was wet, skin was peeling off our fingers and toes. At that point, we were both starving and starved for light. If you had offered us a coconut, we’d have said keep that and bring on the sun. Laura got burned.
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Alaginger
Member
07-11-2002
| Friday, December 11, 2009 - 12:14 pm
Wow - I didn't realize that the voting at TC to boot Dave was unanimous: ******************************* Mick ("Danger Dave"): Hate to see you go, man. It's nothing personal, it's just strategy. Peace out. Natalie (Dave): Dave, I'm voting for you. I'm sorry. You're hilarious, but this is the majority, and you are a strategic threat. Good game. Jaison (Dave): <says nothing> Russell (Dave): You were running around, threatening to kick me out of the game. That was your biggest mistake in the game. Now I gotta get rid of you. Dave (Shambo): Shambo, I'm voting for you because this is the name Russell gave me to keep my head off the block. I don't think it's gonna work, but it feels pretty good. Shambo (Dave): See ya later, Dave. Brett ("Danger Dave Ball"): Danger Dave Ball. You're too good of a friend, too close of an ally, too much of a rock star. I'll be missing you. Monica ("Danger Dave Ball"): I wish you, Brett and I could have come up with a better plan so I would not have to be writing your name down tonight. Go get a full tummy for me, Dave.
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Alaginger
Member
07-11-2002
| Friday, December 11, 2009 - 12:19 pm
TC Voting as Monica gets the boot: *********************************** Brett ("Russel"): Big Boy, best of luck. Natalie (Monica): Monica, happy early birthday, but I'm voting for you because you created all kinds of drama today. Hats off to you for trying, but we can't have that. Again, sorry, happy early birthday again. Good game. Jaison (Monica): You can consider me a hypocrite if you want, but I also like to think I own up to my mistakes. I said I shouldn't have said what I said, and honestly, happy birthday. This has to be done. Shambo ("Monn Happy 26th"): Hopefully you get to have some cake for your birthday tomorrow. Russell (Monica): If you tell me you're not gonna write my name down for a million dollars if I put you on the jury, that's just gonna make me want to vote you out even more. Stupid, stupid little girl. Bad strategy. Happy birthday. Monica (Russell): There was no way I was not gonna go out kicking and screaming. If a miracle happens and I'm here tomorrow, so be it. If not, watch out Russell, you have a huge target on your back. I hope you make it as far as you think you can. Hang in there, Brett. Mick (Monica): You're a little snake in the grass. Nicely played, but I think a little too late. Happy birthday.
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Bonbonlover
Member
07-13-2000
| Friday, December 11, 2009 - 12:46 pm
Live Chat with Dave: [Comment From Bonbon] Do you think Russell is playing the social game needed to get jury votes? 3:44 Dave Ball: I do not. [Comment From Grace] Do you think the jury will vote for Russell if there are no Galu in the final 2? ... 3:47 Dave Ball: He's a played a pretty strong game, but maybe not a social enouch player
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Bonbonlover
Member
07-13-2000
| Friday, December 11, 2009 - 12:52 pm
[Comment From Lonada] Which of the Foa Foa do you think would flip on Russell first? 3:50 Dave Ball: If they didn't have the guts to flip before, they aren't going to now hummm I guess Mick and Jaison stay put
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Bonbonlover
Member
07-13-2000
| Friday, December 11, 2009 - 12:57 pm
[Comment From Bonbon] Did anyone think of Natalie as a player or is she simply Russell's shadow? 3:56 Dave Ball: Nobody takes her seriously, b/c she's not a threat 3:56 *** 3:56 Dave Ball: Then again, we really may not have been giving her a lot of credit, she was awesome in challenges *** [Comment From Grace] What if it's Natalie and Russell in the final 2. Would Natalie have a chance of winning? 3:57 *** 3:58 Dave Ball: Seemingly not, but they have to make that final group first....
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Bonbonlover
Member
07-13-2000
| Friday, December 11, 2009 - 1:01 pm
[Comment From bunny] who do think the next to go? 3:59 *** Dave Ball: Smart money would be Brett
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Alaginger
Member
07-11-2002
| Friday, December 11, 2009 - 1:59 pm
Great Stuff BonBon!!! Smart money would be right .... but TDT and Survivor Fever and posters at Survivor Blows, as well as spoilers are saying that Brett wins immunity again. Shambo is slated to get the next boot. The threads I am reading all point to the fear of Russell of a Brett/Mick/Natalie alliance of some kind is CBS Misdirection. Ginger Note: My thoughts --- anybody that would go to the jury with Brett, would automatically lose to Brett. He will have to continue to win the IN to hang on til the end.
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Juju2bigdog
Member
10-27-2000
| Friday, December 11, 2009 - 3:58 pm
I would say Brett is on an immunity run. As soon as he loses, he is out.
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Pamy
Member
01-02-2002
| Friday, December 11, 2009 - 7:04 pm
Natalie said 'You're hilarious' how come we never saw that? Thing I will remember him for is always looking dumb founded at TC and for being condesending to Sham. and wow! was that the first time Jaison spoke at TC? Jaison is such a good looking, well spoken guy.
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Alaginger
Member
07-11-2002
| Friday, December 11, 2009 - 9:27 pm
Once again, thanks to Survivor Fever for the transcript and pics: ********************** Transcript:
Announcer: Survivor Week kicks off CBS on Thursday. He's evil...
Russell <camera confessional> : If I didn't need Shambo I would definitely get rid of her. Announcer: ...vicious... Mick <camera confessional> : He scares the hell out of me. Announcer: ...Russell, the ruthless Island King. Russell <camera confessional> : There's nothing else that can stop me.
Announcer: But will this baby-faced assassin...
Brett <camera confessional> : I'm a fighter and I'm going to make it as far as possible. Announcer: ...surprise everyone?
Russell <camera confessional> : You gotta get Brett. Russell <camera confessional> : He's a little punk, he's a threat. Announcer: Don't miss a new Survivor, Thursday.
Russell <talking to Jaison> : We have to blindside everybody, everybody left. Announcer: And the two hour season finale, Sunday.

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Alaginger
Member
07-11-2002
| Saturday, December 12, 2009 - 6:12 am
TDT has pointed out something in this pic worth bringing over: ********************** Here is a picture of Russell and Natalie coming back to camp. There are several pics in the sequence as you watch them walk, but in the last blurry image you can see Brett wearing the IN. At first I didn't bring this over because I thought they might very well just be returning from the previous TC, but usually those pics are dark and in the nighttime, and this pic is definitely in the daylight....so it appears to prove that Brett once again wins immunity.
Also, TDT has pointed out that this episode is probably the last one where Russell will be allowed to use him HII, so he probably will. I'm not 100% sure of that because I need to go do some research and see when is the usual last time. The finale and reunion show on Sunday is the first time since I can remember of the episode starting with 5 players, haveing 2 IC's and 2 TC's before we even get to the Final 3 and the jury visit. Lastly, TDT says it is Shambo's time to go on Thursday night since the last 5 spots have already been spoiled and Shambo is not among the names listed.
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Alaginger
Member
07-11-2002
| Saturday, December 12, 2009 - 6:25 am
Okay ... did my little research and found what I was looking for.
According to this posting of the rules, the last time the Hidden II can be used is when there are 5 players. That would not be this episode coming up (unless they have changed the rules). It would be the first TC of the episode on Sunday night.
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Alaginger
Member
07-11-2002
| Saturday, December 12, 2009 - 6:53 am
Just went back over to TDT to reread about the Hidden II and noticed they said it is pretty close to the last time it can be used, not probably the last time it can be used. Sorry about remembering that incorrectly, because it does make a difference. Regardless, we now know that the last time is when 5 players are remaining, so Russell might use it Thursday night, or save it til the first TC on Sunday night. Regardless, it is going to be very interesting and lots of fun.
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Juju2bigdog
Member
10-27-2000
| Saturday, December 12, 2009 - 12:20 pm
Yes, it is. Thanks, Ginger.
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Pamy
Member
01-02-2002
| Saturday, December 12, 2009 - 1:33 pm
Ginger, you are the best!!! Thanks for all the hard work you do! You make every season so much better!
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Alaginger
Member
07-11-2002
| Saturday, December 12, 2009 - 3:12 pm

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Seamonkey
Moderator
09-07-2000
| Saturday, December 12, 2009 - 6:13 pm
Ginger, you ROCK, as always!
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Alaginger
Member
07-11-2002
| Saturday, December 12, 2009 - 6:20 pm
TY, Sea!!!....... There was some great analytical overhead beach scene analysis going on over at Survivor Blows, and I can't get all of it over here, but the gist of it is these two pictures.
What does it mean? Well, just before we see the picture I posted earlier of Brett, Mick and Natalie doing what looked like a pact, they come walking up the beach. From the trail of the footprints in the sand it appears that the ones to the right were earlier in the day when the sand was wet and the footprints make big impressions in the sand, plus at the top of the pic you can see what appears to be boat skiff marks. So it looks like Mick, Brett and Natalie won some kind of award and met a boat at the beach and are now coming back to camp. The analysis goes on to say that they are walking near the water, and earlier in the day when they made the first footprints, they were probably close to where the water was at that time, but later in the day, on their return, the water has receded. Also, to the far right you can see another set on one-person tracks which they analyze must have been a photographer. So, if all of this is right, we have Thursday's show all lined out. Reward: Mick, Natalie and Brett IC: Brett Boot: Shambo Hope we get some pics for the Sunday show, but I would imagine they don't want to show us that Shambo isn't around any more.
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Lookieloo
Member
08-12-2009
| Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 9:10 am
WOW oh WOW oh WOW!!! The info you get, ginger, is amazing!!!! I stand by my earlier comment......YOU ARE as cool as Kool-ade!!! btw.....Kool-ade IS the coolest thing there is 
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Jezzedout
Member
09-07-2006
| Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 2:12 pm
Great find and analysis Ginger. Thanks for sharing (-:
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Alaginger
Member
07-11-2002
| Sunday, December 13, 2009 - 3:28 pm
Thanks Lookie ........ but not as amazing as the person who did all the analytical work on all the pictures they used. I just brought over the two that I thought would tell the end-result story. But, I like being cool as Kool-ade (LOL).
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