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Episode 4 - "Starvation and Lunacy"...

The TVClubHouse: Survivor ARCHIVES: Survivor XII - Panama: Exile Island: Survivor Spoilers: Episode 4 - "Starvation and Lunacy" users admin

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Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Friday, February 17, 2006 - 6:22 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
In a surprising twist of events, a banished Surviror thrives on Exile Island, leaving the tribe back at camp struggling for food and fire.

The excitement over winning a Reward Challenge immediately causes a stir within one tribe, as a tribemate contaminates a prized possession.

Constant bickering between tribemates leaves one Survivor regretting an alliance with a bunch of lunatics.

After the previous Tribal Council, one Survivor begins to worry. Will valiant effort and a competitive nature be enough to keep this castaway in the game?

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Friday, February 17, 2006 - 6:26 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
Cut and pasted this TDT speculation this morning:
-------------
As Wickchix posted at Sucks before the show started, one tribe starved for 10 days, one for 12. So we'd guess that this week, one of the tribes will win a food reward, since both seem fairly incompetent at actual foraging. We've been told that Dan's tribe is the one that starves for 12 days. So Casaya must win the RC.

Also, in the post-Ep3 preview, Danielle is shown in camp with a shovel, which as far as we know, Casaya didn't have prior to this episode. So presumably a shovel is part of the reward. Eventually CBS may deign to proffer up some challenge footage to go along with the spoilers.

Exile: Someone from La Mina
If Casaya gets to choose, Terry would be an obvious target here. Dan or Terry would seem like a logical candidate for someone who could thrive alone on the island. (The "thrive" was taken from the 1st CBS MisDirection clue in the above post)

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Friday, February 17, 2006 - 6:38 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
s3
It's 10 days into the game and LaMina is starving. Nick says that he gives it about 3 more days and none of them will be able to even get up out of bed.

s2
Over at Casaya Shane is telling Danielle that "Nobody will tell Danielle the truth ... they are afraid to."

s1
Here's the picture that shows Danielle with a shovel (speculation being that Casaya must win reward and a shovel is part of the deal). This particular shot is at camp, right when she and Shane are into it, and she has turned to walk away from the confrontation.

Roxip
Member

01-29-2004

Friday, February 17, 2006 - 12:36 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Roxip a private message Print Post    
Alaginger, may I say that I am so happy to see you posting again - one, because I love to read your spoilers and two, because that means you are getting your home back together again!

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Friday, February 17, 2006 - 2:27 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
Yep......we are doing mighty fine now....Thanks Roxip

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Friday, February 17, 2006 - 2:56 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
puzzle
This is a picture of solving a puzzle at sea that might be similar to a challenge in the past. Uncertain at this time if this is the RC or the IC, but seem to think it is the RC ... and still assuming that Casaya wins, picks the Exilee and they pick Terry ... who survives very well on Exile Island, better than his tribe back at camp ... and the voice over says something happens at Exile Island that changes the game forever (Terry finds the idol??? Or Terry comes back and tells the others how to survive on Exile Island???)

If the puzzle is the RC, then right now they are assuming that the IC is getting skeletons in coffins from underwater and deliverying them to tombs on land. I'll keep watching for what comes up after the week-end pictures, speculations and spoilers.

Tntitanfan
Member

08-03-2001

Friday, February 17, 2006 - 4:12 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Tntitanfan a private message Print Post    
Gosh, there is a huge amount of difference in the puzzles. One is complete, and the other is still a hodge-podge! Do the colors in the puzzles give us any clues?

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Friday, February 17, 2006 - 4:49 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
The colors are throwing me. Originally LaMina was orange, and I'm pretty sure it is still orange, and here is a picture of the back of Dan's head at the orange puzzle and Dan is on LaMina, so orange and LaMina seem right.
s1

But in the double picture up above of the challenge it looks like LaMina is the winner, and all the spoilers say that Casaya wins. So, right now I'm going to guess that the double picture might be before the challenge? by the props people of the show, or something. Hopefully we will get more pictures over the week-end and a better idea.

Seamonkey
Moderator

09-07-2000

Friday, February 17, 2006 - 6:41 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Seamonkey a private message Print Post    
You ROCK, Ginger!

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Sunday, February 19, 2006 - 7:40 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
Okay ....... I've been over to TDT this morning, and this is what the speculation from the pics and spoilers is over at that website.

Reward Challenge is on land. Casaya wins because there is a picture of a very unhappy Dan, Danielle with a shovel, and Shane with a structure behind him that might be an outhouse. There was a clue in the CBS misdirections about somebody contaminating the prize, so that's why the supposition of an outhouse. Maybe food is also part of the reward because the spoilers say that Casaya goes without food for 10 days, and La Mina (Dan's tribe) goes for 12 days. Here are those pics. (Don't know what the one with Bobby getting water thrown in his face is about, but I'm bringing it over anyway.)
s1
s2
s3
s4

TDT also speculates that Casaya gets to pick the exilee. They pick Terry, the pilot, because he appears to be the leader of LaMina. Whoever goes thrives on the island, and something happens to change the show ... so TDT is thinking that Terry finds the II.

TDT is also saying that the Immunity Challenge is the puzzle in the water challenge, which (keep in mind) Survivor Fever right now is showing as the RC. The clues tell us that it is the closest defeat in the history of Survivor, and it appears that Casaya wins ... see happy Shane pic. If this is the case, based on Ruth Marie being the one last week that got so many votes, but just less than Misty,.... then Ruth Marie looks very vulnerable to be the boot this time.
s5
s6
s7
s8

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Sunday, February 19, 2006 - 7:44 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
Better pic of the shrunk one in above post.
s5

Juju2bigdog
Member

10-27-2000

Sunday, February 19, 2006 - 10:07 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Juju2bigdog a private message Print Post    
Thanks for the great work, Alaginger! Love it.

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Sunday, February 19, 2006 - 12:09 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
Over at Survivor Fever on the Boot Sheet List they have everybody categorized as very safe, safe, slightly vulnerable, very vulnerable, and most vulnerable (first time I've seen "most").

The only one listed on Casaya in the vulnerable category is Bobby as slightly vulnerable. On LaMina they have Sally and Nick as slightly vulnerable, Dan as very vulnerable, and Ruth Marie as most vulnerable. (Not looking too good for Ruth Marie right now)

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Monday, February 20, 2006 - 6:38 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
I've been waiting for Survivor Fever to be more definitized about what their speculations are for this week's show. Now that it is Monday morning and all the pictures should be out, they still seem pretty shaky with what they think. At one time they thought the sea puzzle challenge was RC, and that the IC had something to do also in the water with removing skeletons and bringing them ashore to a burial place as 2 or 3 pictures of underwater skeletons appeared in the first set of pictures. There have been no more skeleton pictures, so now they think that is going to appear in a later episode. They have also moved their speculation of the sea puzzle down from RC to IC, but say they still are not sure. They seem to be leaning with what TDT says about a latrine, and a Terry Exile, and a Ruth Marie very vulnerable boot.

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Monday, February 20, 2006 - 6:08 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
Aha ..... more fuel to add to the fire:

I've been reading the posts over at Survivor Blows and it has been pointed out that if LaMina loses IC, which it appears they do, that it is Sally that would be more vulnerable than Ruth Marie. They seem to think that the CBS Misdirection is trying to make people think that Ruth Marie is more vulnerable since she got the other votes last week ...
So, I went over to Survivor Fever and cut and pasted this for us:



Tribal Council Votes:
Austin - Voted for Misty
Dan - Voted for Misty
Misty - Voted for Ruth Marie
Nick - Voted for Misty
Ruth Marie - Voted for Misty
Sally - Voted for Ruth Marie
Terry - Voted for Misty

Notice how all four guys voted for Misty to go, and Ruth Marie voted with them. Supposedly in her voting remarks she said something in the way of an apology, but said she had to stick with her alliance. So, she may be in an alliance with 2 male players (probably Terry and Dan) or all 4 male players. Misty and Sally were the only 2 that voted for Ruth Marie, so Misty is gone....and Sally could very well be the next target.

I thought that made a lot of sense, so I wanted to get it here for you guys that are playing the games.

Costacat
Member

07-15-2000

Tuesday, February 21, 2006 - 8:17 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Costacat a private message Print Post    
Ginger, great deductions! And I agree... I think Ruth Marie has an alliance with someone. I would've thought she'd have been an obvious choice to leave, but they picked Misty.

At this point in the game, I think it's silly to get rid of someone cause he/she is smart. And smart does not a challenge-winner make! :-)

Jan
Moderator

08-01-2000

Tuesday, February 21, 2006 - 10:42 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Jan a private message Print Post    
no but heavily flirting with the young members of the 4 men alliance might make her the perfect choice to the older men. After all, what if she succeeded in turning the younger men against the older men and siding with her and Sally??? On the other hand, Ruth Marie is not a force to worry about in any way so I could see it happening that way?

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Tuesday, February 21, 2006 - 12:32 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
Okay, Dokey ... here's a cut and paste from the Insider of what was said at the last voting booth. Remember, Misty and Sally voted for Ruth Marie, and all the others voted for Misty to get the boot.
*************************
LA MINA VOTES OUT MISTY
Clip Description: In their first tribal council the male-dominated La Mina tribe votes out brainy Misty Giles. Find out what each tribemate says while casting a vote.

AUSTIN: Only in the game of Survivor would I make this vote. Our talks on faith have inspired me so much. You have an unlimited potential. Lord bless you, sweetie.

TERRY: Misty, you're a smart girl, strong, and intelligent. I wish it didn't have to be this way. Someone has to go tonight, and the alliance picked you. Take care of yourself; see you later.

RUTH MARIE: (Misty) This is with an extremely heavy heart, but I'm voting my alliance.

DAN: Misty, you definitely have the right stuff, and I hope to be at the launch when your dream comes true and you head off to the moon. I'm really gonna miss you. This is a tough vote tonight.

MISTY: This is just team play, that's all.

NICK: Misty, I'm voting for you tonight. It was a very hard decision but it's just a matter of the tribe and the strength of the tribe. I think also that you're probably the least strong member of the tribe. I'm very sorry but it was an amazing engagement with you, an amazing five days with you.

SALLY: (votes for "Mama Ruth"): My vote tonight is for Ruth Marie. You're an amazing woman, this is all about going with the tribe. I've learned a lot from you. I hope your kids know how great you are.

Tntitanfan
Member

08-03-2001

Tuesday, February 21, 2006 - 2:03 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Tntitanfan a private message Print Post    
So Sally though she was "going with the tribe?" Can you spell clueless??

Seamonkey
Moderator

09-07-2000

Tuesday, February 21, 2006 - 4:27 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Seamonkey a private message Print Post    
Whoa.. Sally was definitely either out of the loop or lying through her teeth..

Angelrsg
Member

08-08-2005

Tuesday, February 21, 2006 - 5:00 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Angelrsg a private message Print Post    
Sally thought there was an alliance between herself, Misty, and the younger guys. Poor kid didn't see Misty getting voted out coming.

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Wednesday, February 22, 2006 - 8:00 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
I would imagine that we will see some footage on Thursday night of Sally venting a bit with the younger guys, especially Austin who it seemed at befriended the two girls. Oh Well, that's what Survivor is all about.

The most I can reap by reading through posts at other websites is that there is mixed feelings about who is going this week.
1 - Ruth Marie ... because she is just too weak to carry on supporting her tribe in challenges.
2 - Sally ... as the other 1/2 of the Misty and Sally combo.
3 - Dan ... so weak from food deprivation that he might ask to be voted off (I really doubt this one)
4 - Nick ... Terry and Dan see that the best they can do at this point at the merge is 5/5, and maybe 6/4 depending on next week...so it would be a good time to eliminate the young, stronger guys now.

So, this gives you the way others are thinking. I think it's going to be Sally if nothing happens during the show to make any changes from where they sit at this point.

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Thursday, February 23, 2006 - 12:38 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
Blind Freddy at Survivor Fever has his analysis up now and I thought it was a nice read:
----------------
Episode 4 - 'Starvation and Lunacy'

'The Nick of Time'

By Blind Freddy - 2.23.06

<click for bonus sneak peek at Survivor movie trailer: 'Brokeback Island'>

LoBand: 150kbps 2.7MB HiBand: 434kbps 5.7 MB

Sometimes what looks looks a good idea, turns horribly awful. I'm guessing that is what happens this episode. The presence of a gift shovel over at Casaya suggests that Casaya will win the Reward Challenge this week. Along with a literal tool to distribute the virtual Casaya hubris, comes the bonus selection of a La Mina exilee. This could have some serious repercussions over at La Mina if Casaya's expected purpose is to remove the heart of its opponent from the game. The target is expected to be Terry, the leading force of La Mina. The question is...will this strategy work? Will it weaken or even disable La Mina?

Spoilers indicate that Casaya will only lose one more member before the Merge2, which suggests another La Mina IC loss and subsequent boot this episode. The effects of a possible exiling of Terry produces two facets to examine here. One is the obvious opening of the door to intratribal maneuvering to oust the tribal leader in absentia. The second is the Exile Island perk of the possibility of the exile finding the Hidden Idol.

Presently La Mina has six members in which there appears to be a controlling alliance. However in Survivor, as we all know, appearances aren't always as they seem. It appears that Ruth Marie, though edited as vulnerable and isolated, might very well be safely aligned through her schoolyard pick of Dan. Through the same rose colored glasses it might be thought that Nick and Austin's alliance with Dan and Terry is as firm as the Rock of Gibraltar...not necessarily so. And the potential absence from camp by Terry, might provide the opportunity for some behind the back maneuvering.

Time is growing short for those who are seen as strength within the tribe. And with 'numbers' being everything, a desperate target might feel vulnerable enough to attempt a coup. Timing is everything in Survivor and while six votes may appear to predicate a deadlocked tie, the pre-merge target might be feeling desperate enough to play the odds.

But 'timing' and 'odds' are fickle friends to count on in Survivor especially when the Hidden Idol wildcard is thrown into the mix. From teasers and vidcaps we learn that La Mina is likely to send someone to Exile Island and 'that someone' is just as likely to be Terry. His absence from camp might encourage Nick to make a power move that should have been done last episode when the numbers were better. But next episode the numbers will be worse, thus the possible motive for immediacy. Now comes the really tricky part to predict...with Terry the potential thriving exile, there is that possibility that Terry will fulfill the promo teaser that changes the game forever...ie find the Hidden Idol. If anyone can find it, it'll be Terry. Knowing that, perhaps Nick decides to try to undermine the Terry alliance by taking out Dan. Then either Austin (or Sally) gets nervous about being the possible target of an unbreakable TC tie and bails out resulting in the numbers for a Nick boot.

While there are a lot of 'ifs' in this prediction, I can't do much worse than last week, so I am going with a Nick boot prediction this episode. The Hidden Idol this season is an excellent wrench that the Survivor producers have thrown into the mix and hopefully this episode will produce some sparks from that wrench hitting the works. But sometimes the best use of a tool is not using it. And I think we'll see in the coming episodes, much of Terry walking softly while carrying a big stick...or stone as the case may be.

While the attempt of Nick to de-throne the tribal leader might be a good idea, the timing was a bit short of right. Nick has played a fairly low profile game on Survivor and could only hope to hide his athletic abilities. But the possession of those abilities has time and again provoked the targeting of such a player for a pre-merge boot and this episode it was in the Nick of time. Welcome home Survivor Nick.

Alaginger
Member

07-11-2002

Thursday, February 23, 2006 - 12:54 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Alaginger a private message Print Post    
This is too funny. Everyone seems to be stumped as to the real bootee this week. I just picked up this tally after 47 voted over at Survivor Blows, and look how varied it is for a change.
Sally 19
Ruth Marie 15
Nick 7
Austin 2
Bobby 1
Cirie 1
Dan 1
No opinion 1

Jan
Moderator

08-01-2000

Thursday, February 23, 2006 - 1:52 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post Send Jan a private message Print Post    
Even Across the Board has mixed predictions, Ginger:

7 pick Ruth Marie, 4 pick Sally and one picks Nick.

they all pick Terry for exile and the Casaya team to win both contests though