Author |
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Kiersten_love
Member
08-03-2001
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 8:45 am
The black team made a huge mistake by getting rid of Paul, he was there only hope to possibly win weigh-ins. Now with him gone, and Bernie, Britney and the other young girl losing so little, they will surely lose each week. Unless of course there is some shake up again, and Bob gets the shaft on his handpicked team, though I doubt it and his waterloggers.
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Reader234
Member
08-13-2000
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 8:53 am
lol yes Ketchup Paul is gone... it was interesting that they went home for a week (?) and so many of them did not get the support that you'd expect - I mean, its a game, they are home with camera crew and they all were shown with some temptation - I was thinking that this must be a set up (esp when the black team posted those HUGE numbers - a bit of fighting about not working out the brothers were shown with bad food choices, Dan of course was barely shown, and I figured it was because he was eating healthy and exercising - he said 2 - 21/2 hours a day! That is what it takes to post huge numbers imho - low low caloric intake, and heavy exercising, daily!! Yet, its not practical long term... There is no way a woman can beat a man in this type of game play... they do amazing, with out a doubt - but in the game - its just not going to work - I still would prefer to see it divided or a season of only women, only men... I wonder if Bob is going thru a phase, and he is the one that they routinely show doing the "commercials" (for the oatmeal, subway etc which just throws of the flow of the show imho!! weird!) I think Jillian does better because she has the btdt attitude. Paul cannot succeed without serious counseling - they showed his girlfriend and she said she was nervous about sending a new relationship to be with his ex - you could so see her insecurities, and she was overweight, as was the whole family - they all needed a serious intervention!! They showed them eating chicken wings, chocolate, beer.. having a party - Paul has to be confused, to be with his ex which he admits over and over it wasnt his choice to end the relationship, he still has that "if only" attitude...
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Jimmer
Moderator
08-30-2000
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 9:34 am
Before last season I used to think that a woman couldn't win this but I think that a woman could have won last season.
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Rissa
Member
03-20-2006
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 10:04 am
I have to say that I disagree that a woman can't win. I think men probably lose weight faster but to say that a woman can't win is to say that if you have a man and a woman who both need to lose 50% of their weight that a woman could never achieve that. Given an appropriate amount of time both sexes should be able to reach their goal weight. If a woman cannot win on this show it is because the women for the most part don't need to lose as much as the men. So they reach their goal of losing 55% and the men reach their goal of losing 65% and the men win. It's in the casting IMO.
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Cricket
Member
08-05-2002
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 10:07 am
I didn't get to see the whole episode because they kept breaking in with our Primary election, but I saw the very end where Kelly/Paul wore their yellow shirts, because boo, hoo, they didn't feel like part of the Black team. It seemed Kelly changed her tune after listening to the younger kids talk. When she said she was part of the 'black' team, I was wondering why she had a yellow shirt on if that's the case. She says whatever works at the moment. I want her to go next, as I didn't see the other 3 as acting like children. I thought Kelly/Paul acted so much younger and they are the older ones. Always whining when things don't go their way. Ughh!
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Bob2112
Member
06-12-2002
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 10:40 am
The black team really needed to send either Maggie or Brittany home. I'm not a fan of Paul and I've always rooted for Brittany, but this is the first week I was a little disappointed in her. The edit showed Paul doing everything wrong and Brittany doing everything right, but in the end, Paul had the bigger % weight loss for the week and still has the better potential weight loss for the future. Bernie at least was honest and said he wanted to get rid of Paul because Paul would be tougher to beat in the finals. Once Kelly won immunity, there was no way they were keeping Paul, so just admit that. I would think that they are 1-2 weeks away from breaking into individuals and voting out 1 of the 2 that fall below the yellow line. Here's a table ranking the players by current % of weight loss to date. Since the winner usually loses between 40% to 50%, I added a column showing what they would need to weigh to lose 40% and 50% and how much weight they have left to reach those targets.
Name | Starting Weight | Current Loss | Current % Loss | | Final Weight 40% Loss | Still To Lose | | Final Weight 50% Loss | Still To Lose | Mark | 285 | 83 | 29.12 | | 171 | 31 | | 142.5 | 59.5 | Dan | 310 | 86 | 27.74 | | 186 | 38 | | 155 | 69 | Bernie | 283 | 72 | 25.44 | | 169.8 | 41.2 | | 141.5 | 69.5 | Roger | 363 | 87 | 23.96 | | 217.8 | 58.2 | | 181.5 | 94.5 | Jay | 293 | 65 | 22.18 | | 175.8 | 52.2 | | 146.5 | 81.5 | Kelly | 271 | 53 | 19.55 | | 162.6 | 55.4 | | 135.5 | 82.5 | Maggie | 239 | 41 | 17.15 | | 143.4 | 54.6 | | 119.5 | 78.5 | Brittany | 221 | 36 | 16.28 | | 132.6 | 52.4 | | 110.5 | 74.5 | Not surprising that the 2 guys with the biggest starting weight, Roger and Dan, look to have the best chance of winning, while the 3 girls all have more left to lose than they already have lost to this point. Mark can still win, but I don't think I want to see him under 150 pounds.
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Rissa
Member
03-20-2006
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 11:18 am
Bob, what a lot of work!! Thank you. I went and checked their heights as it's an important part of the equation: Mark 5'10" Dan 5'8" Bernie 5'5" Roger 6'3" Jay 6'1" Kelly 5'6" Maggie 5'3" Brittany 5'7" So just taking Brittany as an example. A good, healthy realistic weight range for her would be about 130 - 145. There is no way that getting to 110 lbs would be anything but dangerous for her. That brings me back to my point which is that it is the casting that takes woman out of the winners circle. Brittany never had enough weight to lose to put her in contention from day 1. Maggie could reach 50% as could Kelly. I am not sure about ideal weights for men, maybe someone else could pipe in on that? Seems to me that Dan has it in the bag, his final weight would be healthy and realistic for his height. Jay, no way, he would have to dangerously thin.
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Bob2112
Member
06-12-2002
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 11:56 am
Maggie and Kelly could do it, but not in the time left before the final weigh-in based on the weight loss at the ranch. I think that Dan has a good chance, but I just think Roger has that football background and has been athletic all his life and will really know how to drop the pounds for the final weigh in. Just like Matt did when he won his season. Roger will look skinny and emaciated at the finale and then promptly put back on 10-15 pounds. At 5'5", Bernie could get into that range, but I don't think he will have enough time either. If people want to come up with guesses to what the final weights may be, based on current weight and height, I can add that to the spread sheet and update the progress each week. That would be a good test of our forecasting skills! 
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Rissa
Member
03-20-2006
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 12:05 pm
You bring up a good point and that's the time left before the finale. This season was rushed to air because of the writer's strike, we can alrdy see the difference in the follow-ups with the evicted contestants. It will be interesting to see if ANY of them reach goal weight by the finale. It will be one more hurdle for the women if the finale is pushed sooner, right? If they are not given adequate time to reach their goal weight then it will be whoever is losing *fastest* who wins and that will be Mark and Dan.
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Reader234
Member
08-13-2000
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 12:06 pm
That's a great table Bob!! I believe when Bob, Jillian, and some from the last BL were on Larry King they stated that the show only looks at contestants that can/potentially lose 50% of their weight... but like you stated, Brittany and even Mark would be serious skeltons! so NOT healthy... again, if the show was more about health and less about competing, it wouldnt be as interesting to watch - but we always are good at tweaking the comps!!
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Jimmer
Moderator
08-30-2000
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 12:18 pm
That is one cool table!
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Bob2112
Member
06-12-2002
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 4:16 pm
I added various BMI calculations based on the heights provided. The BMI range for normal weight is 18.5 to 24.9 and anything over 30+ is considered obese. The BMI has its problems, but it does try to factor height into the equation. Here's the newer and hopefully even cooler table:
Name | Start Weight | BMI | Current Loss | | Current Weight | BMI | Current % Loss | | Final Weight 40% Loss | BMI | Still To Lose | | Final Weight 50% Loss | BMI | Still To Lose | Mark | 285 | 40.8 | 83 | | 202 | 28.9 | 29.12 | | 171 | 24.5 | 31.0 | | 142.5 | 20.4 | 59.5 | Dan | 310 | 47.1 | 86 | | 224 | 34.0 | 27.74 | | 186 | 28.2 | 38.0 | | 155 | 23.5 | 69.0 | Bernie | 283 | 47.0 | 72 | | 211 | 35.1 | 25.44 | | 169.8 | 28.2 | 41.2 | | 141.5 | 23.5 | 69.5 | Roger | 363 | 45.3 | 87 | | 276 | 34.4 | 23.96 | | 217.8 | 27.2 | 58.2 | | 181.5 | 22.6 | 94.5 | Jay | 293 | 38.6 | 65 | | 228 | 30.0 | 22.18 | | 175.8 | 23.1 | 52.2 | | 146.5 | 19.3 | 81.5 | Kelly | 271 | 43.7 | 53 | | 218 | 35.1 | 19.55 | | 162.6 | 26.2 | 55.4 | | 135.5 | 21.8 | 82.5 | Maggie | 239 | 42.3 | 41 | | 198 | 35.0 | 17.15 | | 143.4 | 25.3 | 54.6 | | 119.5 | 21.1 | 78.5 | Brittany | 221 | 34.6 | 36 | | 185 | 28.9 | 16.28 | | 132.6 | 20.7 | 52.4 | | 110.5 | 17.3 | 74.5 |
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Anniem
Member
05-21-2006
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 4:18 pm
Was anyone else put off by Mark's controlling behavior with his family. I think it is important for children to eat healthy, but I thought he did a very poor job of explaining to his children why he didn't want them to have the goodies that were at the party. It could be that I just don't like him! That's probably it! LOL.
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Rissa
Member
03-20-2006
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 4:25 pm
It caught my attention too Anniem, but I wrote it off as eager-beaver homecoming. He knew the camaras were watching to see how they reacted once home, so I didn't take it as necessarily normal behavior.... it definately was over the top though.
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Freetimefinally
Member
01-26-2006
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 4:53 pm
I was wondering who catered all of the houses. I do relize one mom said she bought the cupcakes. If I had a loved one or even just an aquaintance that I knew had been gone a couple of months trying to lose weight I would never have taken half of the things on the buffet spreads. The Bar-b-que would not be bad if you had choices of healthy also. But some of these houses were just sweet rolls, cakes and cookies.
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Bob2112
Member
06-12-2002
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 4:59 pm
I think Bernie had his friends from the bakery cater all of the blue teams home reunions. I wanted to grab a sweet roll and eat it with the kid while hiding under the table. Didn't Brittany admit to eating a small piece of pizza and a chocolate chip cookie? Jillian looked like she wanted to hurt Brittany for eating the cookie.
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Cricket
Member
08-05-2002
| Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 5:18 pm
Tres cool table, Bob. Thank you!
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Sunshyne4u
Member
06-17-2003
| Friday, February 22, 2008 - 5:13 am
glad paul is gone. He was just playing games IMHO and trying to get kelly back. When I found out he had a girlfriend waiting back at home I found his 'in house' behaviour even more reprehensible. Constantly grabbing at, kissing at, Coming up behind and hugging his EX. Making a big fuss when her boyfriend left a message for her. All very childish IMHO and seeming to want to be centre of attention. I caught part of the blurb when he was at home. Making a big production over what he was eating and everyone cheering him on. I wonder how the family is treating him now? His mom and dad were there and his brother...wonder what they say now after seeing the "sessions" used as an excuse for his bingeing. His dad must be furious to be outted like that on tv.
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Gumby
Member
08-14-2004
| Tuesday, February 26, 2008 - 6:22 pm
Anybody watching tonight? We have the debates on here tonight so it's not on in our area.
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Yesitsme
Member
08-24-2004
| Tuesday, February 26, 2008 - 6:49 pm
I'm watching. Boys team won a trip to Vegas and all got tatoos. LOL. Silly boys. I missed last week and have really noticed the transformation this week. They are all looking so good!
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Gumby
Member
08-14-2004
| Tuesday, February 26, 2008 - 7:02 pm
Thank you Yes! I appreciate you spoiling for us.
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Yesitsme
Member
08-24-2004
| Tuesday, February 26, 2008 - 7:19 pm
Black team Kelly - 6 lbs. lost Maggie - 8 lbs. lost Brittany - 6 lbs. lost commercial!
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Yesitsme
Member
08-24-2004
| Tuesday, February 26, 2008 - 7:25 pm
Bernie - 10 lbs. Black team percentage - 3.69% (30 lbs.) Blue team needs to lose 34 lbs. to win. They've been cocky. I hope they don't.
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Yesitsme
Member
08-24-2004
| Tuesday, February 26, 2008 - 7:29 pm
Blue team Dan - 7 lbs. lost Roger - 8 lbs. Jay - 7 lbs. Mark needs to lose 13 lbs. commercial (of course)
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Yesitsme
Member
08-24-2004
| Tuesday, February 26, 2008 - 7:34 pm
Mark - 1 lb. (It was bound to happen! He has lost so much so fast.) Blue team percentage - 2.47% Black team wins Bernie player of the week
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