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Kitt
Member
09-06-2000
| Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 8:23 pm
Did someone say "stats"? I gave Will, Boogie and Erika a 1/3rd chance of winning HoH, and then all four of them a 1/4th chance of winning PoV. I think these are the stats for the next eviction: Chance of Janie going home: 0.54 (only saved if she wins veto or if Boogie wins HoH and Will is the voter or if Erika votes and chooses her over Will - I give that a 50:50 chance)) Chance of Erika going home: 0.29 (only evicted if Boogie is HoH and Will is the voter or if Will is HoH and Janelle wins POV and evicts her over Boogie (I give her choice 50:50 chance as I'm not sure who she'd choose)) Chance of Boogie going home: 0.12 (only evicted if Erika is HoH and Janelle wins Pov or if Will is HoH and Janelle wins PoV and evicts him over Erika (I give her choice a 50:50 chance)) Chance of Will going home: 0.04 (only evicted if Boogie wins HoH and Erika wins POV and evicts him over Janelle (I give her choice a 50:50 chance)) In summary, Will has it made, and Janelle really HAS to win PoV. Please feel free to let this thread float off into oblivion. But I enjoyed it 
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Beckerz
Member
08-18-2005
| Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 8:45 pm
I don't really care who goes home next...they all may have played the game, but they did it in the worst way...I hated their game plays...especially Janie's... However, I do agree with you I think unless Janie gets POV she'll be next to go
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Eeyoreslament
Member
07-20-2003
| Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 9:00 pm
Cool stat Kitt!! Thanks!!! It's fun to crunch the numbers sometimes!!
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Bbfan05
Member
08-11-2006
| Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 9:05 pm
My worst nightmare...Erika winning the game! I don't know why she was an All Star to begin with. She did NOTHING during her season as far as excitement or good gameplay, and has done the same this year.
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Nynana
Member
05-31-2005
| Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 9:12 pm
Will keeps saying he is producing this show, with all the perks beginning with boogie going in with him when boogie never deserved to be in AS's <IMHO>, maybe Will IS producing it... CBS saves money, Will makes his paycheck they don't pay a winner. Erika is an employee of CBS also and never should have been allowed in the game. CBS saves money again as Erika is already on the payroll. It has never made any sense this whole season that Erika was on the show. It never made any sense that boogie was on the show. All Wills perks never made any sense. Bear in mind, this are just my rambling thoughts that make me go hmmmmmm in the night. I don't think Janie has a chance of going all the way without POV and if she is evicted, I can't wait for the season to be over with. I really doubt I will watch once she is gone...though she did it to herself. She could have changed things up with this last HOH but didn't. I keep thinking that being locked in the house has affected her thinking, maybe she believes Will is her captor and she has Stockholm Syndrome and that is why her game play has been off all season regarding CT. Just my 
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Amac
Member
09-07-2001
| Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 9:44 pm
Erika winning Big Brother All-Stars would be the biggest travesty since Amber winning Survivor All-Stars. I've always suspected, without any proof, that Will demanded that Boogie be on BB All-Stars with him or he (Will) would not do the show, and since an All-Star BB without Will was unthinkable, CBS and Shapiro/Grodner caved in to his demand.
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Ladytex
Member
09-27-2001
| Friday, September 01, 2006 - 6:54 am
Number 1 AGAIN, Erika is NOT an employee of CBS. She was a contractor for Mark Burnett Productions. Number 2 - Janelle doesn't deserve to win more than any of the others. She had opportunity to take out her biggest competitor AGAIN and folded
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Eeyoreslament
Member
07-20-2003
| Friday, September 01, 2006 - 7:00 am
ITA with your # 2 Ladytex!!! It's a GAME. If you aren't great at the game, you lose. That's how games work. Janelle may win some competitions (and have some thrown to her), but she is terrible at the people skills part of it, and just because she got snowed doesn't indicate a CBS conspiracy.
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WoodpeckeŽ
Member
07-16-2002
| Friday, September 01, 2006 - 7:08 am
"Number 2 - Janelle doesn't deserve to win more than any of the others. She had opportunity to take out her biggest competitor AGAIN and folded." Agree completely. The word "deserve" means nothing. If she does pull off a win, it will be more because of her skill in comps. Her startegy can definitely be described as "doing it the hard way".
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Kathyb
Member
05-17-2006
| Friday, September 01, 2006 - 7:11 am
I don't think Janelle is any worse at the people skills part of it than anyone else, with the exception of Will. Once Howie was gone, she was basically alone. She's still there. In addition to winning the necessary competitions to save herself, I think she made the best choices she possibly could to keep herself in the game. If anyone other than Erica wins POV, she's likely in the final 3. I'd say she's done pretty well considering what she was up against.
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Chy
Member
07-19-2003
| Friday, September 01, 2006 - 7:17 am
HI, Kitt! I like the stats you put up very much! But now that things have changed, will you be up-dating the stats? Thank you! I appriciate any talk about the game.
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Kitt
Member
09-06-2000
| Friday, September 01, 2006 - 8:30 am
I'd love to, Chy! I think Boogie being HoH is absolutely the best option for Janelle to stay in the game. This is what I see happening: Boogie will nominate Janelle and Erika. If Boogie wins PoV the nominations stay the same, Will votes, Erika will leave. If Will wins PoV the nominess will stay the same, Will votes, Erika will leave. If Janelle wins POV the nominees will be Erika and Will and Erika will leave. If Erika wins PoV the nominess will be Janelle and Will. Janelle or Will could leave depending on whether Boogie decides Will is better off in the Jury or whether Erika sees Will as more of a threat than Janelle. Let's give that a 50:50 chance. If we say there is an equal chance of any HG winning PoV we get: Chance of Boogie leaving: 0.00 Chance of Will leaving: 0.125 Chance of Janelle leaving: 0.125 Chance of Erika leaving: 0.75 Unless Erika wins PoV I think she's out of there!
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Chy
Member
07-19-2003
| Friday, September 01, 2006 - 9:06 am
Thank you Kitt. Such a speedy response as well. I thought the stats would be something like that. I'm satisfied. Even though there's always the unpredictable flip-flops. I thought for Will to show his true feelings for Erin, he may oust Janie. Boog and Will also had said things like they don't really intend to share the banana bread more than two ways! Could that heighten the probability for Will to leave should Erika get the PoV? I'm not actually bothering you for an answer, just thought there's still some variables.
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Steviegirl
Member
07-07-2005
| Friday, September 01, 2006 - 9:13 am
Did Chilltown talk to Erika about Banana bread? Boogie has been annoyed with Will/Janie lately, so I'm wondering if he'll tell Will to evict Janie instead of Erika? Could he possibly put up Will and Janie and tell Erika to evict Janie? Has Boogie told Will what he's going to do yet?
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Kitt
Member
09-06-2000
| Friday, September 01, 2006 - 9:27 am
I don't think Will will evict Janelle because he knows if Erika is in the final three and gets HoH she picks Boogie for the final 2, not him. If he's in the final 3 with Boogie and Janelle, both of them would take him. But it could change if things get worse between Will and Janelle, which it seems to be doing. If he begins to doubt she'd take him I think he might well get rid of her. Stevie, I don't think Will will do just what Boogie says, he'll make his own decision whether to cut Janie or Erika, if it comes to that. In a way this HoH has the least control of any HoH, all it really is is safety from eviction, but the power to evict is all in the PoV.
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Happymom
Member
01-20-2003
| Friday, September 01, 2006 - 11:27 am
Kitt, I agree. The one thing I am unsure about is if Will wants to win. I think he probably does, but I have a doubt too.
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Chy
Member
07-19-2003
| Friday, September 01, 2006 - 2:25 pm
Oh yes, winning is most important to Dr. Will. Remember how he used to like to brag about how much money his girl friend and himself had made off Reality Shows? I'm not sure how much he "owes" Boogie though. Boog talked about being sorta sold out by Will in order for Will to win BB2. We know Boog won't even have gotten on this one without Will. But we don't know how far Will will go in that direction. We don't know what the deal under the table is. So if Kitt really wanted to, she could have made a bunch of stats according to different scenarios, huh?
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Anastasia
Member
08-26-2006
| Friday, September 01, 2006 - 2:41 pm
I LOVE a good stat! Looking at the numbers really clarifies the picture. Thanks Kitt! I am embarrassed I voted for Erika to by on BB7. It's all my fault... Let's hope Erika doesn't win the POV. If I were in the jury I'm not sure if I would vote for Janelle or Will to win, for different reasons. I would vote for either of them over either of the other two.
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Kitt
Member
09-06-2000
| Friday, September 01, 2006 - 3:20 pm
Me too Anastasia. Chy, taking up your last comment, which might have been a challenge , I've looked at what might happen if: Janelle, if given the chance, considers evicting Will (25% prob) over Erika (75% prob) Will, if given the chance, considers evicting Janelle (25% prob) over Erika (75% prob) Erika, if given the chance, considers evicting Janelle (50% prob) over Will (50% prob) (as before) For Boogie, if he controls the post-Veto nominees, I've given him a 75% chance of having the final nominees Erika and Janelle with Will voting and a 25% chance of having the final nominess Will and Janelle with Erika voting. The voters would act with the probabilities I've listed above. I've given Boogie zero percent chance of leaving the final nominees Erika and Will, which would have given the power to Janelle. Using those probabilities, the chances of each leaving are: Chance of Erika leaving: 0.52 Chance of Janelle leaving: 0.27 Chance of Will leaving: 0.22 As I made up the probabilities of each of those happening, that probably doesn't mean much. I still think out of loyalty, when it comes down to it Boogie wouldn't get Erika to vote out Will (or risk her doing it without his permission), and I don't think Janelle will vote out Will if she wins PoV because neither Erika nor Boogie would take her to the final. I still think unless Erika gets PoV she's gone.
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Chy
Member
07-19-2003
| Saturday, September 02, 2006 - 10:21 am
I am impressed, Kitt! Thank you! It is very confusing. We can't see what their hearts are made of until the moment comes. I thought Will will want to go to SH to sway Jury. But now I think he'd love to be the only two-time winner BB could ever have! And I do think part of the downer for Boogie is that he probably just realize that it'd be impossible for some one with Will's ego to just bow out and hand something to him! *ETS that, we know why Erika is sad, she definitely just woke up to your stats also, when she was actually nomed by Boog. Let's not let this thread die. We are going to have more as soon as the POV finishes and all the forked-tongues starts.
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Kitt
Member
09-06-2000
| Tuesday, September 05, 2006 - 6:41 pm
Just shows how quickly stats can change with new events! 
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