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Predictions

The TVClubHouse: American Idol/Canadian Idol/Other Talent Shows ARCHIVES: American Idol IV: Predictions users admin

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Seamonkey
Member

09-07-2000

Thursday, March 17, 2005 - 11:17 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
This is from my newspaper, Orange County Register .. we have a column called The Watcher written by Michael Hewitt thewatcher@ocregister.com

Some 'Idol' speculation on finalists' chances

With Mario Vasquez off to discuss his need for privacy on every talk show in existence, the rest of us are left behind to weigh this: Now who's going to win 'American Idol'?

The Watcher, never one to shy from imponderables, ranks the 12 finalists in order of their chances. (this was written before Wednesday's results show sent one of the 12 packing, most likely Lindsey. If it was Bo, please discontinue reading).

Ain't No Stopping Us Now"
1. Bo Bice -
A welcome change from wannabe Stevie Wonders and Justin Timberlakes, Bo has set the standard for the male performers this season.
2. Anwar Robinson - The best voice in the competition. Anwar's challenge will be to keep his performances interesing. If he does that, he'll win.
3. Carrie Underwood - Simon and the producers have been selling her since Day One. With the beautiful voice and the girl-next-door good looks she reminds us of Kelly Clarkson - with a lot less spunk.

It's Gonna Take a Miracle"
4. Nadia Turner -
A fun, quirky performer like Fantasia, but lacking Fantasia's pipes.
5. Jessica Sierra - Could be the season's biggest surprise. She outsang the other women at least twice in the past three weeks, but lacks stage presence.
6. Anthony Fedorov - Clay Aiken Lite, if that's possible. Will need to pull the grandma vote away from Anwar.

"Things That Make You Go Hmmmm..."
7. Constantine Maroulis -
Good looks are going to carry this young faux-rocker just so far.
8. Mikaylah Gordon - She's more Fran Drescher than Barbara Streisand.

"The Impossible Dream"
9. Scott Savol -
You've proven your dad wrong, son. Now go home.
120. Vonzell Solomon - I keep forgetting she's on the show. Not a good sign.
11. Nikko Smith - Mario's replacement, he sang well in the semis and still got cut. Why will he last now?
12. Lindsey Cardinale - The second coming of Julia DeMatto.

Well he was right about #12, but I don't agree with him down the line. We will see.

Buggles
Member

09-07-2002

Friday, March 18, 2005 - 10:01 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
Interesting.. I agree with most of this.

I think we can safely say at this point that Jessica is not a contender. And Nadia has a good chance though I agree with the assessment of her here.

I really don't think Anwar will win. I see him as this season's LaToya London.

The interesting thing this year is that the F4 will all probably be very different and quite competent. I think the final rankings will be more of a reflection of voters subjective tastes rather than a statement on contestants vocal ability, performance ability or image.

Kitt
Member

09-06-2000

Friday, March 18, 2005 - 11:27 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
I agree with most of that guy's listing, and with Buggles, that the top four are going to be good and varied. What's been refreshing this year is that the people who have left have mostly been the people who should have left. If that continues we're likely to have an excellent final six with no 'sympathy vote' contestants, unlike in the previous AIs.

Seamonkey
Member

09-07-2000

Friday, March 18, 2005 - 2:19 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
Yeah this guy follows certain reality shows closely and does fairly well with predictions. I also like that he won't print spoiler info but will tell if he knows something and you can email for the info.

I thought I'd put it up here so we can see how he holds up.

Seamonkey
Member

09-07-2000

Friday, March 18, 2005 - 2:20 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
Personally I'd be putting Nadia into that group labelled "Ain't No Stopping Us Now" but maybe I'm skewed in her favor. I've been voting for her and Anwar. Just like the whole package in both cases.

Maris
Member

03-28-2002

Friday, March 18, 2005 - 2:29 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
I think it will come down to Bo and Nadia

Bonzacat
Member

07-08-2003

Friday, March 18, 2005 - 2:34 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
Maris, I agree with your two predictions.

Pamy
Member

01-02-2002

Friday, March 18, 2005 - 3:02 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
I think Anwar will be in top 2

Babyboo
Member

06-16-2003

Friday, March 18, 2005 - 3:15 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
Top Two Will Be Bo and Carrie.

Lexie_girl
Member

07-30-2004

Friday, March 18, 2005 - 3:16 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
I'll take the easy way out - Top 3 are Bo, Carrie and Nadia


Seamonkey
Member

09-07-2000

Friday, March 18, 2005 - 3:50 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
Will be interesting to see, week to week.

I also still find it fascinating that ahead of time they felt they had to protect the guys and now here we are.. first shot.. all three on the block were women (with some justification, I might add).

Rabbit
Member

08-12-2001

Friday, March 18, 2005 - 4:14 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
What makes it really hard is that every year some contestants really grow while others don't.

Kelly, Clay and Kimberley Locke all caught fire and showed week to week improvements after relatively slow starts. Dianne last year was bottom 3 several times in the first few weeks but was consistently in the top 2 from the mid-point on. Latoya London started out smoking and after repeated exposure became boring according to the pundits.

Two of my draft picks, Carrie and Anwar, both brimming with potential have had blah performances at best so far and shouldn't crack the top six based on what they are doing now, but I would be shocked if one or both of them didn't catch their strides.


Alisons
Member

01-10-2003

Friday, March 18, 2005 - 7:31 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
My picks for the top two based on talent would probably be Anwar and Nadia. However, America seems to have a strong "Midwest Osmond Factor" which propels bland white clean cut kids to the top, so I am thinking Anthony or Carrie could also be up there.

Sassynegal
Member

01-21-2005

Friday, March 18, 2005 - 8:08 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
there is something about those who come out as early picks to win - they shine too much too soon and never get better while others are ok to start but improve each week.

My opinion that is....

Seamonkey
Member

09-07-2000

Friday, March 18, 2005 - 8:12 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
Perhaps, but Ruben and Fantasia broke that mold already and Kelly wasn't a skinny blonde, so there is hope that it may be based on talent and presentation.



Hootyhoot
Member

12-18-2001

Saturday, March 19, 2005 - 5:23 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
I'm rooting for Nadia and Anwar. I could watch them for many years to come.

Fabnsab
Member

08-07-2000

Saturday, March 19, 2005 - 5:50 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
9. Scott Savol - You've proven your dad wrong, son. Now go home

This is the one that shocks me. I won't take him literally because by doing so, he would be very offensive but Scott has a great voice and is gaining fans every week. He should be very proud of himself.

Also, am I the only red blooded woman in this country that thinks Constantine is <>? Facially, Bo is much better looking. You just have to imagine a Queer Eye makeover and he is pretty handsome.

<QT>

Alisons
Member

01-10-2003

Saturday, March 19, 2005 - 6:18 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
Yes Sea, I agree that as far as the winner is concerned America usually gets it right - however - I think the blander contestants get further than they should. Examples that spring to mind - Diana D, John Stevens, Carmen, Josh.....but hey, just IMHO.

Buggles
Member

09-07-2002

Saturday, March 19, 2005 - 6:50 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
Fab, I don't think Constantine is <> but I can see how some might. I never would have identified him as a 'heartthrob'.... altho teen standards have changed I've noticed. When we were kids 'heartthrob' actually = above average looks??

I never understood why Constantine was the early fan favorite. I thought Bo was much better vocally in auditions, and I dont see one as being particularly better looking or charismatic over the other. Actually, I thought Bo looked pretty good when he was standing there being judged for Spinning Wheel. I noticed his friends looked pretty normal too so I suppose my image of him shifted a bit.

I didnt realize early on how TALL Constantine is. My initial impression was short & pudgy. Im still having a tough time grasping this.

<QT>

Llkoolaid
Member

08-01-2001

Saturday, March 19, 2005 - 9:32 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
bland clean cut white kids, hmmmm don't like that statement but you are entitled to your opinion. It just gives me the creepy feeling that they are being judged on who they are and not how good they are. I am Not a fan of country music but it is quite obvious that Carrie has a very good voice. Anthony is pretty good too, and Diana Digarmo has an amazing voice. I would agree that John Carmen and Josh don't do much for me. Sorry to be picky but I find that statement a bit offensive.

My picks for the top 4 are Bo and Anwar, Nadia and Carrie. Hope it works out this way and I would be very happy with any of them winning. I think if they make it this far they are all going to come out winners.

Auntiemike
Member

09-17-2001

Saturday, March 19, 2005 - 9:50 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
I agree with your top 4, Llkoolaid. The only one I have any reservation about is Carrie and that is only because she is a bit too country for me. But, that is just my taste. All four you mentioned can be a "total package" for AI. It will be fun to see how they grow and change over the competition; and to see whether they can stand up to the continuing pressures.



Seamonkey
Member

09-07-2000

Saturday, March 19, 2005 - 11:19 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
I can't comment on "getting it right" and certainly not in terms of the color, flavor, race, gender or hair color, because I really think AI gets a good mix.

I did think Kimberly Locke left too soon, perhaps because the first AI was a woman and it was the turn of a man, but Ruben and Clay both had the talent to win as well.

Making it too far.. well I'm not good at remembering names but there were several cute or adorable hispanic or black guys who probably went beyond where they "should" based on personality or teey bopper votes.. heck.. Justin Guarini jumps right out there.

I'll agree that John Stevens and Carmen went too far, but Carmen wouldn't have even been there based on the call in votes.. you can "blame" Simon for bringing her back.. but then Clay also came back as a wild card. Diana belonged in top 10 and beyond; she and John wouldn't have been in my final three for sure.

Given the population of the US, there would be more "white" kids, I suppose. No idea what proportions are auditioning, or voting and I don't much care.. just want the talent to, as much as possible given a system that is doomed to be flawed, given the volume of people, the small panel of judges, those of us voting and when the volume increases, those who cannot get through to vote (and of course the push to vote vote vote and then crowing about the numbers of votes, instead of perhaps limiting the votes to one per singer per phone line) and still say what we will, some talented young singers HAVE come out of this process.

My personal favorites and predictions are Anwar, Nadia, Bo and Carrie, though I admit to throwing a few votes for Scott last week because something moved me about his performance and I didn't want him to go home yet (as if I could assure this with my votes.. yeah, right!)

My tendency is to want the rockers to stay longer than they usually do.. that seems likely to happen this year and I appreciate country so am not opposed to a GOOD country voice rising to the top.. and we seem to have a pretty good country voice in Carrie. I agree with the author that Anwar needs to "bring it" a bit more but also that he has by far the best voice/personality/looks package!! I also feel that way about Nadia, to a lesser extent.

Highlighter
Member

09-03-2003

Sunday, March 20, 2005 - 8:28 am   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
Seamonkey commented how the "they" wanted a male to make it far, and how the lowest performers so far are (justifiably) female......

My guess is that the background people, during the initial selection process, start out with a predetermined model of who they want to win, and select the ones to perform in front of the judges based on that.

I was thinking about how it's just statistically too impossible that last year, *four* "divas" (I never understood why they didn't include Diana in that number because she had an incredible powerhouse voice), and this year there are none. I think they had to have targeted that last year, and notice how they always commented on it, as if to steer the voting that way (well, and it also made the other singers look very bland in comparison).

That is why I agree with the journalist's take on Nadia. She is just Not the powerhouse that any of those four were. I have re-listened to some of the performances from the divas, and they just belt out whole new versions of whatever they sing. The originality combined with the strength of their voices was incredible. For all four of them, regardless of whether or not I liked their sounds.

Now, take this year. The "they" wanted a male, and *walah* (sp?;), there are a bunch of really great male singers. Were there really *no* really good male singers last year in those stadiums to choose from, because the few that made it through were pretty weak. I find that hard to believe, unless there was a funneling to a predetermined end (diva).

My *guess* is that they would like it to be a rocker at the end, with Carrie as a spin-off (because she is a different genre) (or the reverse), and that they will be doing subtle engineering to assure that.

My .02 :-)

Seamonkey
Member

09-07-2000

Sunday, March 20, 2005 - 1:15 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
I think you might just be right :-) Of course I'll try to foil them at every step, though I won't die if Bo wins; I like him.

Llkoolaid
Member

08-01-2001

Sunday, March 20, 2005 - 1:50 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
voila, I think you have it highlighter.

Konamouse
Member

07-16-2001

Sunday, March 20, 2005 - 2:45 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
It didn't hurt that they raised the age limit this year. I said it last year - boys under 24 most of the time do not have the vocal maturity that girls do by 20 or 22. John Stevens will be a wonderful crooner after he passes 28. Clay was at the older end of the age limit when he was on the show. The majority of the top male talent this year? Over 26, right?
So, I agree they are looking for a guy this year. And that is why they raised the age limit.

'squeek'

Seamonkey
Member

09-07-2000

Wednesday, March 23, 2005 - 8:09 pm   Edit Post Move Post Delete Post View Post    
Good point Kona!

OK.. I'll post this here too.. and P. Diddy has already denied it today.

:::

This is from AOL, so a link won't work unless you have AOL

Diddy Set to Sign Idol Dropout Mario?

Wednesday Mar 23, 2005 8:30am EST
By Stephen M. Silverman
Mario Vazquez
CREDIT: KEVIN WINTER/GETTY The rumblings are growing even louder that American Idol early retiree Mario Vazquez has a newer, better recording contract in his back pocket – placed there by music mogul Sean "P. Diddy" Combs.

"I can't discuss that right now," Combs, clearly not denying the prospect, tells the New York Post, adding: "We're hopefully about to announce our plans for our next era."

Bronx crooner Vazquez, 27, is being typically quiet. When he withdrew from the FOX talent hunt earlier this month, he blamed unspecified "personal reasons." Conventional wisdom, however, speculated that he did not wish to be tied to the restrictive Idol recording contract with RCA.

As it is, Vazquez is bound to AI until the May season finale is aired.